Final Project Turtle audit: Spain 0-0 Argentina / C4 miss. The original lock is preserved and the exact-score experiment is closed pending rebuild.

Ledger

Public record, including the losses.

This is the public Postgame analysis ledger: each row opens the canonical match file, with Pregame analysis and Postgame analysis kept together. No personal staking ledger lives here.

16settled rows labeled hit or miss

8card or branch hits

8misses retained

3locks awaiting standardized settlement

Date	Match	Prediction cloud	Support	Final	Turtle settlement	Correction / postgame analysis
2026-07-02	Portugal vs Croatia	1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2	Over 2.5	2-1	Exact branch hit	Positive signal, small sample; logged as evidence, not proof.
2026-07-03	Switzerland vs Algeria	2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2	Over 3.5	2-0	Score-card miss	Clean-sheet branch and opponent-strength gate were underweighted.
2026-07-03	Australia vs Egypt	0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2	Over 1.5	1-1	Exact branch hit	Draw branch landed; 1-1 was preserved as a first-class score.
2026-07-03	Argentina vs Cape Verde	2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1	Low-total support	1-1	Four-score card hit; old status split corrected	R5 pressure-extension displaced the draw-risk branch; this created the four-score rule.
2026-07-03	Colombia vs Ghana	1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 1-1	Under 3.5 support hit	1-0	Four-score card hit	Exact-cell leader landed; score 4 not needed.
2026-07-04	Canada vs Morocco	1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2	Under 3.5 support hit	0-3	Late-lock score-card miss; support hit	0-2 was S10 rank 6 and 0-3 was rank 11; Turtle missed the Morocco clean-sheet spread thread.
2026-07-04	Paraguay vs France	0-2, 0-1, 1-1, 1-3	Under 3.5 support hit	0-1	Late-analysis four-score card hit	0-1 exact-cell anchor landed; public correction says ranked display is not solo-deployment permission.
2026-07-05	Brazil vs Norway	2-0, 2-1, 1-1, 1-2	Over 1.5 YES hit; Over 3.5 NO hit	1-2	Four-score card hit	The Norway star branch was real. Carry-forward rule: high score-four underdog BTTS branches require a promotion audit before lock.
2026-07-05	Mexico vs England	1-1, 0-1, 0-2, 2-2	Over 1.5 YES hit; low-total support failed	2-3	Four-score card miss	The 2-2 branch was real but not enough. Correction: Under 3.5 cannot be full-card support when score 4 itself is 2-2.
2026-07-06	Portugal vs Spain	1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2	Analysis-only support; allocation guidance removed	0-1	Four-score card miss	Protocol failure: overstacked BTTS, ignored Spain clean-sheet streak, and failed to preserve Neohm's 0-1 signal.
2026-07-06	Belgium vs USA	2-1, 1-2, 3-1, 1-1	BTTS/over-goal reads hit; exact-score card missed	1-4	Four-score card miss	Favorite-cushion ladder failure: 3-1 survived, but 4-1 was not formally tested before lock.
2026-07-07	Argentina vs Egypt	2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1	Over 1.5 support hit; Under 3.5 candidate failed	3-2	Four-score card miss	Second-underdog-goal failure: Turtle admitted Egypt scoring but did not carry 2-2 or 3-2 through contradiction.
2026-07-09	France vs Morocco	2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2	Scenario lab analysis-only; S06 clean 2-0 hit	2-0	Four-score card miss; scenario settlement 1/20	BTTS overstack. The 2-0 world existed in scenario S06 but was not promoted into C4.
2026-07-10	Belgium vs Spain	0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-1	Under 3.5 aligned; Under 2.5 reclassified partial	1-2	Four-score card hit	C4-3 landed exactly. Spain clean-sheet branch failed, but the wall-break Spain-win node was preserved.
2026-07-07	Switzerland vs Colombia	Locked analysis	See page	See page	Archived lock	Canonical pregame lock and audit files are preserved on the match page.
2026-07-11	England vs Norway	2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2	BTTS stress	See page	Published lock	Readable fact board and 200-row intelligence file are linked from the canonical page.
2026-07-11	Argentina vs Switzerland	2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0	Under 3.5 full-card aligned	See page	Published lock	Evidence board now exposes the model summary, score candidates, ledgers, and proof artifacts.
2026-07-15	England vs Argentina	1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1	Zero-dollar market exercise reported separately	1-2	Exact C4 hit / node 2	Argentina-win, three-goal, BTTS, and no-clean-sheet threads landed. One hit does not establish calibration.
2026-07-19	Spain vs Argentina	1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2	Analysis only; no score changed after lock	0-0	Four-score card miss	0-0 ranked sixth at 7.17% and passed its source floor, but the selector allocated no scoreless-draw node. The experiment is closed pending rebuild.