Pregame lock / July 11 / Argentina vs Switzerland

Locked C4: Argentina edge, Swiss block, clean-sheet ladder.

This run is not allowed to become an Argentina hype card. Switzerland's Colombia 0-0 route and Manzambi absence force clean-sheet/block analysis, while Argentina's current World Cup scoring gate defeats 0-0 and Swiss clean-sheet upset as primary nodes.

C4-1 / Argentina by one / BTTS Argentina 2-1 Switzerland

Argentina result edge survives while admitting Swiss scoring risk.

Rule: R2/R3

C4-2 / Argentina clean-sheet control Argentina 1-0 Switzerland

Swiss block and Manzambi absence make the low clean-sheet win live.

Rule: R1/R4

C4-3 / Low draw/block Argentina 1-1 Switzerland

Switzerland's Colombia 0-0 route and draw/block profile prevent deleting the draw.

Rule: R4

C4-4 / Argentina clean-sheet cushion Argentina 2-0 Switzerland

Argentina current World Cup scoring supports a second clean-sheet ladder node.

Rule: R2/R5

Open lock file Download C4 CSV Contradictions

Evidence pulse

The model is split between Argentina pressure and Swiss suppression.

ARG current WC GF2.800

ARG current WC GA1.000

ARG current WC over 2.580.0%

SUI current WC clean sheets40.0%

SUI current WC BTTS60.0%

Under 3.5 model78.0%

Support separation. Under 3.5 is full-card aligned. BTTS and Over 2.5 are partial-card only because `1-0` and `2-0` are locked C4 nodes.

Proof engine

Definitions, rules, lemmas, theorem.

P(a,b) = Pois(a; lambda_ARG=1.719) * Pois(b; lambda_SUI=0.889)

D1. C4 is exactly four regulation-time scores written Argentina-Switzerland.
D2. P(a,b)=Pois(a; 1.719) Pois(b; 0.889).
D3. A candidate cannot enter C4 until its strongest opposing fact is recorded in contradiction_ledger.csv.
F1. Argentina current WC: GF 2.800, GA 1.000, scored 100.0%, conceded 60.0%.
F2. Switzerland current WC: GF 1.800, GA 0.600, clean sheets 40.0%, BTTS 60.0%.
R1. Argentina scoring gate excludes Argentina-blank scores unless defeated by stronger Swiss clean-sheet evidence.
R2. The Argentina-result branch must keep one by-one and one clean-sheet ladder representative if both survive attack.
R4. A Swiss low-draw/block branch must be preserved when Colombia 0-0 and draw rates pass threshold.
L1. 2-1 survives because Argentina-by-one and Swiss scoring are both active.
L2. 1-0 survives because Swiss block and absence evidence defeat a pure BTTS card.
L3. 1-1 survives because the draw/block branch is stronger than 0-0 after Argentina scoring gate.
L4. 2-0 survives as the adjacent Argentina clean-sheet cushion node.
T. Under D1-D3, F1-F2, and R1-R4, the locked C4 is {2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0}.

Candidate table

Every visible score is attacked before selection.

score	p_count	turtle_index	result_branch	total_bucket	btts_state	status	selection_rule	selection_reason
1-0	0.127	1.000	ARG_BY_ONE	T_0_1	NO_BTTS	MAIN	R1/R4	Swiss block plus Manzambi absence supports a low Argentina clean-sheet win
1-1	0.113	0.834	DRAW_LOW	T_2	BTTS	MAIN	R4	Swiss draw/block branch survives favorite pressure and Colombia 0-0 route
2-0	0.109	0.820	ARG_CUSHION	T_2	NO_BTTS	SCORE_4	R2/R5	Argentina cushion clean-sheet branch; adjacent to 1-0 and supported by Argentina current WC scoring
2-1	0.097	0.735	ARG_BY_ONE	T_3	BTTS	MAIN	R2/R3	strongest Argentina-by-one BTTS branch after Swiss scoring is admitted but contained
3-0	0.062	0.470	ARG_CUSHION	T_3	NO_BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_INDEX_COMPARISON	R5a	Argentina clean-sheet ladder is represented by 1-0 and 2-0; ruthless tail lacks stronger support.
0-0	0.074	0.410	DRAW_LOW	T_0_1	NO_BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_SCORING_THREAD	R1	Argentina scored in every current World Cup row and 100% of last ten.
3-1	0.055	0.401	ARG_CUSHION	T_4	BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD	R5a	Argentina high-stress route exists, but Switzerland's Colombia 0-0 and quarterfinal block keep it outside C4.
1-2	0.050	0.300	SUI_BY_ONE	T_3	BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD	R5	Swiss by-one upset has a route but lower result support than 1-1 and 1-0/2-0 clean-sheet branches.
0-1	0.065	0.273	SUI_BY_ONE	T_0_1	NO_BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD	R2	Swiss clean-sheet upset is tested but loses to Argentina scoring and result edge.
2-2	0.043	0.269	DRAW_HIGH	T_4	BTTS	EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD	R5b	High draw is attacked by Swiss knockout block and Manzambi absence; 1-1 is the draw representative.

Contradiction ledger

The branch has to survive its hardest counterfact.

candidate	attack	decision	rule	numeric_basis
2-1	Swiss block and Manzambi absence say Switzerland may not score.	SURVIVES	R2/R3	Argentina conceded in 60.0% current WC and Switzerland scored in 80.0% current WC.
1-0	Argentina current WC is high-event and Switzerland scored in 4/5 route rows.	SURVIVES	R1/R4	Switzerland just produced 0-0 vs Colombia; Manzambi absence lowers Swiss attack; quarterfinal caution lowers totals.
1-1	Argentina favorite/result edge says draw should be excluded.	SURVIVES	R4	Switzerland last-50 draw rate 38.0%; Switzerland last-10 draw rate 50.0%; Colombia route 0-0.
2-0	Swiss scoring profile attacks a second Argentina clean-sheet node.	SURVIVES_AS_C4	R2/R5	Argentina current WC GF 2.800; Argentina last-10 scored 100.0%; clean-sheet ladder needs a cushion node.
0-0	Swiss Colombia 0-0 route supports it.	EXCLUDED	R1	Argentina scored 100.0% current WC and 100.0% last-10.
0-1	Swiss clean-sheet upset/longshot.	EXCLUDED	R2	Argentina scoring gate defeats Argentina blank; Swiss upset is represented only as wider-orbit risk.
3-1	Argentina current WC over-2.5 and comeback form support 3-1.	EXCLUDED	R5a	Quarterfinal total burden plus Switzerland 0-0 route keep 3-1 outside C4; 2-1 is the BTTS representative.
2-2	Both teams scoring and Argentina concessions support high draw.	EXCLUDED	R5b	Swiss high-draw loses to 1-1 because Switzerland 0-0 and Manzambi absence lower the second Swiss goal.
3-0	Argentina clean-sheet ladder may extend.	EXCLUDED	R5a	Clean-sheet ladder is represented by 1-0 and 2-0; 3-0 becomes ruthless tail without enough support.

Public evidence board

The facts were already published. This board makes them readable.

This page had the audit trail as CSV and Markdown artifacts. The readable board below points to the same canonical data files instead of asking a lay reader to discover them from a folder listing.

Argentina strength9.4team_strength_ratings.csv

Switzerland strength8.2team_strength_ratings.csv

ARG count rate1.719model_summary.csv

SUI count rate0.889model_summary.csv

Human question	Readable answer	Audit file
What exact scores were kept?	2-1, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0, each as a public C4 node.	final_3_plus_1_card.csv
Why did these scores survive?	The candidate table and contradiction ledger attack BTTS, clean-sheet, draw, upset, and cushion branches before selection.	score_candidates.csv / contradiction_ledger.csv
What raw team rows support the page?	Separate Argentina and Switzerland match ledgers preserve the public rows used by the analysis.	ARG_match_ledger.csv / SUI_match_ledger.csv
What model assumptions are visible?	Weights, blended attack/defense rates, clean-sheet override, and opponent-threshold summaries are exported.	model_summary.csv / opponent_threshold_ledger.csv
What can fail?	The page explicitly preserves the failure modes and postgame audit trail instead of hiding them.	WHY_THIS_CARD_CAN_FAIL.md / POSTGAME_AUDIT.md

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Sources