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Research tab / calibration evidence

How Round of 16 scorelines actually behave.

Turtle keeps leaning toward 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, and 2-1. This page asks whether that is a model artifact or a World Cup knockout reality. The first ledger studies every modern men's World Cup Round of 16 from 1986 through 2022: 80 matches, scored after extra time when extra time was played, with penalties marked separately.

Download match CSV Download summary CSV

Figure 1 / top-line distribution

The historical prior is low-to-medium scoring, not chaos.

Matches studied 80

Modern World Cup Round of 16, 1986-2022.

Under 3.5 61/80

76.2% finished with three or fewer goals.

Over 3.5 19/80

23.8% reached four or more goals.

3-1 or 3-2 8/80

These tails exist, but they are not the modal R16 state.

BTTS 43/80

53.8% had both teams score.

Extra time 26/80

13/80 were decided by penalties.

The most frequent normalized score families are 2-1 (17), 1-0 (16), 2-0 (10), 1-1 (8), 3-0 (6). That does not prove any current match is low-scoring, but it tells Turtle that a 3-1 or 3-2 branch must earn its slot through opponent threshold, tactical, star, or live-state evidence rather than through imagination.

Figure 2 / total goals

Total-goal frequencies

0
4 5.0%
1
16 20.0%
2
18 22.5%
3
23 28.8%
4
7 8.8%
5
8 10.0%
6
1 1.2%
7
3 3.8%

Figure 3 / score families

Most common score families

2-1
17 21.2%
1-0
16 20.0%
2-0
10 12.5%
1-1
8 10.0%
3-0
6 7.5%
4-1
5 6.2%
3-1
5 6.2%
0-0
4 5.0%
3-2
3 3.8%
4-3
2 2.5%
4-0
1 1.2%
5-1
1 1.2%

Figure 4 / tournament-by-tournament check

Over 3.5 exists, but it is uneven across tournaments.

1986 3/8 over 3.5

BTTS 2/8 · clean sheet 6/8

1990 1/8 over 3.5

BTTS 4/8 · clean sheet 4/8

1994 3/8 over 3.5

BTTS 5/8 · clean sheet 3/8

1998 3/8 over 3.5

BTTS 5/8 · clean sheet 3/8

2002 0/8 over 3.5

BTTS 3/8 · clean sheet 5/8

2006 1/8 over 3.5

BTTS 2/8 · clean sheet 6/8

2010 2/8 over 3.5

BTTS 5/8 · clean sheet 3/8

2014 0/8 over 3.5

BTTS 5/8 · clean sheet 3/8

2018 2/8 over 3.5

BTTS 6/8 · clean sheet 2/8

2022 4/8 over 3.5

BTTS 6/8 · clean sheet 2/8

Research note / Turtle implication

Why this matters for 3-1 and 3-2.

Let R be the 80 modern R16 matches. P_R(total ≤ 3) = 61/80 = 76.2% P_R(total ≥ 4) = 19/80 = 23.8% P_R(score family in {3-1,3-2}) = 8/80 = 10.0%

The first deduction is modest: Round of 16 history supports Turtle's habit of considering under-3.5 structures. The second deduction is stricter: history does not ban 3-1 or 3-2, because those scores appear repeatedly, but it makes them non-default. They must be generated by a named mechanism: a favorite spread realm, a weak clean-sheet opponent threshold, a star-player distortion, or a game-state volatility signal.

That is the research rule going forward: high-score tails are not discarded by taste, and they are not admitted by excitement. They enter Turtle only when the data thread proves why this match belongs to the historical tail.

Audit table / all rows

Every parsed Round of 16 match.

CSV
YearMatchScoreTotalBTTSOver 3.5Note
1986 Mexico vs Bulgaria 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
1986 Soviet Union vs Belgium 3-4 7 yes yes a.e.t.
1986 Brazil vs Poland 4-0 4 no yes 90/120 score
1986 Argentina vs Uruguay 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
1986 Italy vs France 0-2 2 no no 90/120 score
1986 Morocco vs West Germany 0-1 1 no no 90/120 score
1986 England vs Paraguay 3-0 3 no no 90/120 score
1986 Denmark vs Spain 1-5 6 yes yes 90/120 score
1990 Cameroon vs Colombia 2-1 3 yes no a.e.t.
1990 Czechoslovakia vs Costa Rica 4-1 5 yes yes 90/120 score
1990 Brazil vs Argentina 0-1 1 no no 90/120 score
1990 West Germany vs Netherlands 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
1990 Republic of Ireland vs Romania 0-0 0 no no a.e.t., pens
1990 Italy vs Uruguay 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
1990 Spain vs Yugoslavia 1-2 3 yes no a.e.t.
1990 England vs Belgium 1-0 1 no no a.e.t.
1994 Germany vs Belgium 3-2 5 yes yes 90/120 score
1994 Spain vs Switzerland 3-0 3 no no 90/120 score
1994 Saudi Arabia vs Sweden 1-3 4 yes yes 90/120 score
1994 Romania vs Argentina 3-2 5 yes yes 90/120 score
1994 Netherlands vs Republic of Ireland 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
1994 Brazil vs United States 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
1994 Nigeria vs Italy 1-2 3 yes no a.e.t.
1994 Mexico vs Bulgaria 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
1998 Italy vs Norway 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
1998 Brazil vs Chile 4-1 5 yes yes 90/120 score
1998 France vs Paraguay 1-0 1 no no a.e.t.
1998 Nigeria vs Denmark 1-4 5 yes yes 90/120 score
1998 Germany vs Mexico 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
1998 Netherlands vs FR Yugoslavia 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
1998 Romania vs Croatia 0-1 1 no no 90/120 score
1998 Argentina vs England 2-2 4 yes yes a.e.t., pens
2002 Germany vs Paraguay 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2002 Denmark vs England 0-3 3 no no 90/120 score
2002 Sweden vs Senegal 1-2 3 yes no a.e.t.
2002 Spain vs Republic of Ireland 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2002 Mexico vs United States 0-2 2 no no 90/120 score
2002 Brazil vs Belgium 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
2002 Japan vs Turkey 0-1 1 no no 90/120 score
2002 South Korea vs Italy 2-1 3 yes no a.e.t.
2006 Germany vs Sweden 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
2006 Argentina vs Mexico 2-1 3 yes no a.e.t.
2006 England vs Ecuador 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2006 Portugal vs Netherlands 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2006 Italy vs Australia 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2006 Switzerland vs Ukraine 0-0 0 no no a.e.t., pens
2006 Brazil vs Ghana 3-0 3 no no 90/120 score
2006 Spain vs France 1-3 4 yes yes 90/120 score
2010 Uruguay vs South Korea 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
2010 United States vs Ghana 1-2 3 yes no a.e.t.
2010 Germany vs England 4-1 5 yes yes 90/120 score
2010 Argentina vs Mexico 3-1 4 yes yes 90/120 score
2010 Netherlands vs Slovakia 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
2010 Brazil vs Chile 3-0 3 no no 90/120 score
2010 Paraguay vs Japan 0-0 0 no no a.e.t., pens
2010 Spain vs Portugal 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2014 Brazil vs Chile 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2014 Colombia vs Uruguay 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
2014 Netherlands vs Mexico 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
2014 Costa Rica vs Greece 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2014 France vs Nigeria 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
2014 Germany vs Algeria 2-1 3 yes no a.e.t.
2014 Argentina vs Switzerland 1-0 1 no no a.e.t.
2014 Belgium vs United States 2-1 3 yes no a.e.t.
2018 France vs Argentina 4-3 7 yes yes 90/120 score
2018 Uruguay vs Portugal 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
2018 Spain vs Russia 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2018 Croatia vs Denmark 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2018 Brazil vs Mexico 2-0 2 no no 90/120 score
2018 Belgium vs Japan 3-2 5 yes yes 90/120 score
2018 Sweden vs Switzerland 1-0 1 no no 90/120 score
2018 Colombia vs England 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2022 Netherlands vs United States 3-1 4 yes yes 90/120 score
2022 Argentina vs Australia 2-1 3 yes no 90/120 score
2022 France vs Poland 3-1 4 yes yes 90/120 score
2022 England vs Senegal 3-0 3 no no 90/120 score
2022 Japan vs Croatia 1-1 2 yes no a.e.t., pens
2022 Brazil vs South Korea 4-1 5 yes yes 90/120 score
2022 Morocco vs Spain 0-0 0 no no a.e.t., pens
2022 Portugal vs Switzerland 6-1 7 yes yes 90/120 score

Sources. Data parsed from the public Wikipedia knockout-stage pages for 1986-2022 FIFA World Cups. Fetched 2026-07-05 20:08 UTC. Each CSV row preserves its source URL and source row text for review.