Spain vs Argentina-level opponents
10 rows, effective sample size 6.45, weighted GF 2.35 and GA 1.32.
Settled evidence archive
The data remains public after the miss.
One hundred regulation-time rows entered the model. The evidence was sufficient to generate a card; the four-node selection was not sufficient to contain the 0-0 result.
Descriptive windows
What the model was given
These rates describe admitted historical rows. They are not exact-score probabilities and did not guarantee the card.
| Team | Window | n | GF / match | GA / match | Scored | Clean sheet | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | Last 50 | 50 | 2.40 | 0.72 | 86% | 52% | 44% |
| Spain | Last 10 | 10 | 1.70 | 0.30 | 80% | 70% | 30% |
| Spain | Current tournament before final | 7 | 1.86 | 0.14 | 85.7% | 85.7% | - |
| Argentina | Last 50 | 50 | 2.16 | 0.50 | 94% | 62% | 34% |
| Argentina | Last 10 | 10 | 2.50 | 0.60 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Argentina | Current tournament before final | 7 | 2.14 | 0.86 | 100% | 28.6% | - |
Comparable opponents
The two realms had unequal strength
Argentina vs Spain-level opponents
5 rows, effective sample size 3.25, weighted GF 1.93 and GA 0.77; shrinkage was required.
0-0 remained live
The candidate grid ranked 0-0 sixth at 7.17%, only 0.67 percentage points below the fourth selected score.
Downloadable record