# Why This Card Can Fail

This C4 can fail if Argentina's current high-event knockout pattern overwhelms the Swiss block and turns the game into `3-1`, `3-2`, or `2-2`.

It can also fail if Switzerland's Colombia 0-0 route is stronger than modeled and produces `0-0` or `0-1`.

The most important unresolved uncertainty is whether Switzerland's missing/limited attacking pieces lower only its scoring probability, or also change Argentina's ability to control transitions.