Clean-sheet override is active: Spain's current World Cup ledger is 5/5 clean sheets, their last-10 clean-sheet rate is 70%, and Belgium's best attack is volatility rather than a verified Spain-realm scoring edge.
Attack: Belgium current World Cup BTTS is 4/5 and Doku/Trossard/De Ketelaere/Lukaku keep one-goal Belgium branches alive.Settled C4 hit / July 10 / Belgium vs Spain
Belgium 1-2 Spain landed on the preserved wall-break branch.
This page keeps the pregame lock intact and appends the postgame analysis. The clean-sheet wall was the right fact to force into C4, but the match settled on the branch that preserved Belgium scoring without overturning Spain's result edge.
If Spain's control holds and Belgium's missing/uncertain defensive-midfield layer matters, the clean fork should not stop at 0-1. Spain's 1-0/3-0/4-0 current-tournament modes create a clean-sheet ladder, and 0-2 is the lowest cushion representative.
Attack: Belgium have scored at least once in 4/5 current World Cup rows and their last-10 GF average is 3.3.This is the strongest Spain-win BTTS node in the raw count grid and the necessary containment if Belgium breaks Spain's wall without overturning Spain's result edge.
Attack: Spain's 5/5 current clean sheets and 0/5 current BTTS directly attack all Belgium-scoring nodes.The raw count kernel ranks 1-1 first. It survives as the draw/block representative because Belgium's tournament BTTS evidence is too strong to let every public node be Spain-result only.
Attack: Spain clean-sheet evidence and Spain result quality both attack 1-1; it is not the primary fork.Data facts / before proof
The conflict is visible before any score is chosen.
Belgium have repeatedly created wall-break states: 1-1, 5-1, 3-2, 4-1 plus one 0-0.
Spain enter with GA 0.00 in the current tournament sample; this activates the clean-sheet override.
This attacks a pure no-BTTS card and forces one Belgium-scoring branch.
This attacks Belgium 2-1 and high-draw branches before they can enter the card.
Fact intelligence / 50 highlighted / 200 total
The analysis is backed by a visible fact board.
This layer is the missing bridge between raw tables and the C4. The full top-50 intelligence board is visible on the page as fact cards; the additional 150 rows remain in the evidence room and downloadable audit files.
Player, clean-sheet, BTTS, contradiction, and score-cell facts that directly shape C4.
Last-50 row evidence, scenario branches, and lower-priority audit checks.
Facts cite match ledgers, player board, model summary, score candidates, scenarios, and audits.
Top 50 visible.
These are not locked score cards. They are the public intelligence board: fifty reviewable facts that Turtle must argue from before the proof selects the four score nodes.
Belgium 0-1 Spain is locked through R1 clean-sheet override + R3 central clean score.
Clean-sheet override is active: Spain's current World Cup ledger is 5/5 clean sheets, their last-10 clean-sheet rate is 70%, and Belgium's best attack is volatility rather than a verified Spain-realm scoring edge.Belgium 0-2 Spain is locked through R1 clean-sheet override + R4 cushion representative.
If Spain's control holds and Belgium's missing/uncertain defensive-midfield layer matters, the clean fork should not stop at 0-1. Spain's 1-0/3-0/4-0 current-tournament modes create a clean-sheet ladder, and 0-2 is the lowest cushion representative.Belgium 1-2 Spain is locked through R5 wall-break branch preservation.
This is the strongest Spain-win BTTS node in the raw count grid and the necessary containment if Belgium breaks Spain's wall without overturning Spain's result edge.Belgium 1-1 Spain is locked through R6 draw branch preservation.
The raw count kernel ranks 1-1 first. It survives as the draw/block representative because Belgium's tournament BTTS evidence is too strong to let every public node be Spain-result only.Belgium's current worldcup sample contains 5 matches.
Defines how much trust that row family receives.Belgium's current worldcup scoring rate is 80%.
Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches.Belgium's current worldcup conceded rate is 80%.
Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation.Belgium's current worldcup clean-sheet rate is 20%.
Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork.Belgium's current worldcup BTTS rate is 80%.
Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real.Belgium's current worldcup over-3.5 rate is 60%.
Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails.Spain's current worldcup sample contains 5 matches.
Defines how much trust that row family receives.Spain's current worldcup scoring rate is 80%.
Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches.Spain's current worldcup conceded rate is 0%.
Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation.Spain's current worldcup clean-sheet rate is 100%.
Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork.Spain's current worldcup BTTS rate is 0%.
Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real.Spain's current worldcup over-3.5 rate is 20%.
Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails.Unai Simon is listed as probable starter at goalkeeper, with factor 'Spain clean sheet'.
Strengthens no-BTTS and Spain clean-sheet fork; must be attacked by Belgium 4/5 WC BTTS.Pau Cubarsi is listed as probable starter at center back, with factor 'clean-sheet wall'.
Youth-plus-control variable: strengthens Spain clean-sheet branch but must survive Belgium power-forward pressure.Aymeric Laporte is listed as probable starter at center back, with factor 'clean-sheet wall'.
Veteran control piece; reinforces 0-1/0-2/0-3 Spain fork.Rodri is listed as probable starter at midfield control, with factor 'tempo suppression'.
Main anti-chaos variable: lowers random 3-2/2-3 tails unless Belgium breaks midfield pressure.Lamine Yamal is listed as probable starter at right wing, with factor 'star distortion'.
Primary Spain attacking distortion; if he wins the De Cuyper lane, Spain 1-2/0-2/1-3 branches improve.Leandro Trossard is listed as probable starter at wide/inside forward, with factor 'Belgium scoring'.
One of the strongest Belgium-to-score arguments; direct attack on Spain clean-sheet fork.Jeremy Doku is listed as probable starter at wing, with factor 'chaos creation'.
Belgium's strongest dribble chaos variable; attacks Spain clean-sheet branch without guaranteeing Belgium win.Charles De Ketelaere is listed as probable starter at forward, with factor 'form spike'.
After the USA performance, he is a real BTTS/Belgium-score variable; must be weighted against opponent quality.2-1 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.085221 and status EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD.
Support: Belgium volatility and home-side score pressure. Attack: Spain current WC conceded 0, Spain quality, and no verified Belgium-vs-Spain-realm scoring proof. Decision: Belgium by-one loses to Spain by-one after clean-sheet override and result thread.2-2 is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.062084 and status EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD.
Support: Both attacks survive and raw count remains plausible. Attack: Spain current WC BTTS 0/5 and over 3.5 only 1/5; high draw asks both wall-break and high-total proof. Decision: High draw loses to 1-1 as draw representative.0-0 is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.051923 and status EXCLUDED_BY_SCORING_THREAD.
Support: Spain clean sheet and knockout caution. Attack: Both teams scoring rates and Spain attacking quality. Decision: Draw representative is 1-1, not 0-0.1-3 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.040176 and status EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD.
Support: Spain result plus Belgium wall-break. Attack: Over-3.5 burden and Spain lower-current total pattern. Decision: Loses to 1-2 as Spain BTTS representative.0-3 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.026766 and status EXCLUDED_BY_INDEX_COMPARISON.
Support: Spain clean-sheet ladder. Attack: Over-2.5/ruthless burden; 0-2 already represents the clean cushion. Decision: Adjacent clean cushion loses to 0-2.Pedro Porro is listed as probable starter at right back, with factor 'wide progression'.
Adds right-side outlet; can support Spain 0-2/1-2 but also raises transition exposure against Doku/Trossard.Marc Cucurella is listed as probable starter at left back, with factor 'wide duel'.
Can stabilize Spain left side and support sustained possession; also faces Belgian direct pace.Pedri is listed as probable starter at midfield progression, with factor 'chance creation'.
Raises Spain one-goal and two-goal win branches without forcing BTTS.Dani Olmo is listed as probable starter at central attack, with factor 'box arrival'.
Supports Spain scoring through central overloads; relevant to 1-2 and 0-2.Alex Baena is listed as probable starter at left attack, with factor 'chance creation'.
Probable starter in preview; raises Spain set-play/half-space chance quality.Mikel Oyarzabal is listed as probable starter at center forward, with factor 'finishing'.
Spain's lead striker profile; keeps Spain 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 live even if the match is low-event.Nico Williams is listed as doubt/recovering at wing depth, with factor 'bench volatility'.
If limited, Spain loses one direct chaos lever; if available, late 0-2/1-3 expansion improves.Yeremy Pino is listed as doubt/likely out at wing depth, with factor 'depth reduction'.
Reduces Spain wide rotation and late pressing freshness.Ferran Torres is listed as available, yellow risk at forward depth, with factor 'discipline modifier'.
Yellow-card risk can affect selection/aggression; not a score node by itself.Thibaut Courtois is listed as probable starter at goalkeeper, with factor 'Belgium clean-sheet resistance'.
Keeps Belgium 1-0/2-0 upset clean-sheet tails alive, but Spain scoring pressure attacks them.Timothy Castagne is listed as probable starter at right back, with factor 'defensive lane'.
Part of Belgium's block; Spain left/central progression attacks his side.Jorthy Mokio/Ngoy is listed as probable starter in preview as Ngoy at center back, with factor 'line stability'.
Uncertainty in naming/role is a data-quality warning for Belgium defensive reads.Brandon Mechele is listed as probable starter at center back, with factor 'aerial/box defense'.
Important against Oyarzabal and Spain set pieces; does not erase Spain control.Maxim De Cuyper is listed as probable starter at left back, with factor 'Yamal duel'.
Key stress lane: if Yamal wins this matchup, Spain clean or BTTS win branches rise.Hans Vanaken is listed as probable starter at midfield, with factor 'Onana replacement structure'.
Helps replace Onana minutes but changes Belgium ball-winning profile.Youri Tielemans is listed as probable starter/captain at midfield, with factor 'leadership and passing'.
Controls Belgium's transition release; improves BTTS fork if he can bypass Spain press.Kevin De Bruyne is listed as expected to feature/trained normally at playmaker, with factor 'uncertainty fork'.
If fit and integrated, Belgium creation improves; if the team is less compact with him, Spain control improves.Romelu Lukaku is listed as super-sub signal at striker, with factor 'late-state volatility'.
Three straight substitute scoring note keeps late 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 branches alive.Amadou Onana is listed as out at midfield ball-winner, with factor 'defensive loss'.
Major absence: weakens Belgium midfield protection and makes Spain control/clean-sheet fork stronger.Zeno Debast is listed as out at defender, with factor 'defensive depth loss'.
Reduces Belgium defensive depth and clean-sheet resilience.King Philippe visit is listed as morale signal at team emotion, with factor 'bounded emotion'.
National support is real but bounded; it can raise Belgium intensity, not override Spain clean-sheet evidence.Fork decision
No averaging away the main contradiction.
The clean-sheet fork is primary because Spain's non-concession signal is current, team-level, and attached to the stronger result side. Belgium's scoring signal is also current and player-supported, so it is not deleted. The output is therefore two Spain clean-sheet nodes and two wall-break containment nodes.
0-1 Spain and 0-2 Spain survive from clean-sheet override plus Spain control.
1-2 Spain and 1-1 survive so Belgium volatility is not ignored.
2-1 Belgium is attacked by Spain's 5/5 current clean sheets and loses the result-thread comparison.
2-2 asks both BTTS and high-total proof to win; 1-1 is the draw representative.
Evidence room / facts 1-200
The full fact ledger stays reviewable without crowding the proof.
These rows are not decorative filler. They are the audit trail: last-50 match rows, scenario checks, raw score-cell notes, player facts, and source coverage. Turtle can be wrong, but the evidence it used should stay visible.
| ID | Category | Side | Weight | Fact | Model use | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BELESP-F051 | sample | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last10 sample contains 10 matches. | Defines how much trust that row family receives. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F052 | scoring | Belgium | high | Belgium's last10 scoring rate is 90%. | Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F053 | concession | Belgium | high | Belgium's last10 conceded rate is 60%. | Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F054 | clean sheet | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last10 clean-sheet rate is 40%. | Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F055 | BTTS | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last10 BTTS rate is 60%. | Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F056 | totals | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last10 over-3.5 rate is 60%. | Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F057 | sample | Spain | medium | Spain's last10 sample contains 10 matches. | Defines how much trust that row family receives. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F058 | scoring | Spain | high | Spain's last10 scoring rate is 80%. | Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F059 | concession | Spain | high | Spain's last10 conceded rate is 30%. | Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F060 | clean sheet | Spain | medium | Spain's last10 clean-sheet rate is 70%. | Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F061 | BTTS | Spain | medium | Spain's last10 BTTS rate is 30%. | Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F062 | totals | Spain | medium | Spain's last10 over-3.5 rate is 30%. | Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F063 | scenario | Match | medium | BES01 tests Spain clean-sheet control at score node Belgium 0-1 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, under_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F064 | scenario | Match | medium | BES02 tests Spain cushion clean-sheet at score node Belgium 0-2 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F065 | scenario | Match | medium | BES03 tests Belgium breaks wall, Spain wins at score node Belgium 1-2 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_1_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F066 | scenario | Match | medium | BES04 tests Low draw pressure at score node Belgium 1-1 Spain. | Legs: draw, over_1_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F067 | scenario | Match | medium | BES05 tests High draw stress at score node Belgium 2-2 Spain. | Legs: draw, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F068 | scenario | Match | medium | BES06 tests Belgium statement at score node Belgium 2-1 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, over_1_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F069 | scenario | Match | medium | BES07 tests Spain ruthless at score node Belgium 1-3 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F070 | scenario | Match | medium | BES08 tests Belgium ruthless at score node Belgium 3-1 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F071 | scenario | Match | medium | BES09 tests No-score block at score node Belgium 0-0 Spain. | Legs: draw, under_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F072 | scenario | Match | medium | BES10 tests Spain narrow late at score node Belgium 0-1 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, under_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F073 | scenario | Match | medium | BES11 tests Belgium low clean at score node Belgium 1-0 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, under_1_5, BTTS_no, Belgium_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F074 | scenario | Match | medium | BES12 tests Spain 3-0 wall at score node Belgium 0-3 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F075 | scenario | Match | medium | BES13 tests BTTS over 3.5 Spain at score node Belgium 1-3 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F076 | scenario | Match | medium | BES14 tests BTTS over 3.5 Belgium at score node Belgium 3-1 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F077 | scenario | Match | medium | BES15 tests Five-goal stress Spain at score node Belgium 2-3 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F078 | scenario | Match | medium | BES16 tests Five-goal stress Belgium at score node Belgium 3-2 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F079 | scenario | Match | medium | BES17 tests Spain two-goal but BTTS at score node Belgium 1-3 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F080 | scenario | Match | medium | BES18 tests Belgium two-goal but BTTS at score node Belgium 3-1 Spain. | Legs: Belgium result, over_3_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F081 | scenario | Match | medium | BES19 tests Draw plus extra-time script at score node Belgium 1-1 Spain. | Legs: draw, over_1_5, BTTS_yes, no_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F082 | scenario | Match | medium | BES20 tests Clean-sheet duplicate audit at score node Belgium 0-2 Spain. | Legs: Spain result, over_1_5, BTTS_no, Spain_clean_sheet. | scenario_lab_20.csv |
| BELESP-F083 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 1-1 has probability 0.113553 before selection rules. | Branch draw, total 2, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F084 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 2-1 has probability 0.085221 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 3, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F085 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 1-2 has probability 0.082723 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 3, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F086 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 1-0 has probability 0.077936 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 1, state clean_sheet; attacked by Spain scoring regularity and Belgium concession profile attack a Belgium clean sheet.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F087 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 0-1 has probability 0.075651 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 1, state clean_sheet; attacked by Belgium scoring pressure and 4-1 USA result attack a Belgium blank.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F088 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 2-2 has probability 0.062084 before selection rules. | Branch draw, total 4, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F089 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 2-0 has probability 0.058491 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 2, state clean_sheet; attacked by Spain scoring regularity and Belgium concession profile attack a Belgium clean sheet.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F090 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 0-2 has probability 0.055112 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 2, state clean_sheet; attacked by Belgium scoring pressure and 4-1 USA result attack a Belgium blank.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F091 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 0-0 has probability 0.051923 before selection rules. | Branch draw, total 0, state clean_sheet; attacked by Belgium and Spain combined scoring rates attack the no-score state.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F092 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 3-1 has probability 0.042639 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 4, state BTTS; attacked by High-total branch must defeat knockout suppression and Spain clean-sheet control.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F093 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 1-3 has probability 0.040176 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 4, state BTTS; attacked by High-total branch must defeat knockout suppression and Spain clean-sheet control.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F094 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 3-2 has probability 0.031063 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 5, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F095 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 2-3 has probability 0.030152 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 5, state BTTS; attacked by Spain 5/5 current World Cup clean sheets attack every BTTS score.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F096 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 3-0 has probability 0.029265 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 3, state clean_sheet; attacked by Spain scoring regularity and Belgium concession profile attack a Belgium clean sheet.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F097 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 0-3 has probability 0.026766 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 3, state clean_sheet; attacked by Belgium scoring pressure and 4-1 USA result attack a Belgium blank.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F098 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 4-1 has probability 0.016 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 5, state BTTS; attacked by High-total branch must defeat knockout suppression and Spain clean-sheet control.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F099 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 3-3 has probability 0.015086 before selection rules. | Branch draw, total 6, state BTTS; attacked by Must be attacked by result, total, BTTS, and clean-sheet threads before lock.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F100 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 1-4 has probability 0.014634 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 5, state BTTS; attacked by High-total branch must defeat knockout suppression and Spain clean-sheet control.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F101 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 4-2 has probability 0.011656 before selection rules. | Branch Belgium win, total 6, state BTTS; attacked by Must be attacked by result, total, BTTS, and clean-sheet threads before lock.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F102 | raw score cell | Match | medium | Raw count cell 2-4 has probability 0.010983 before selection rules. | Branch Spain win, total 6, state BTTS; attacked by Must be attacked by result, total, BTTS, and clean-sheet threads before lock.. | score_candidates.csv |
| BELESP-F103 | audit | Match | medium | The clean-sheet audit declares Spain's clean-sheet override active. | Forces at least one Spain clean-sheet node. | clean_sheet_audit.md |
| BELESP-F104 | audit | Match | medium | The BTTS audit says BTTS is plausible but secondary. | Explains why only two of four nodes include Belgium scoring. | btts_audit.md |
| BELESP-F105 | audit | Match | medium | The fork decision ranks Spain clean-sheet control above Belgium volatility. | Sets the order of C4 branches. | fork_decision.md |
| BELESP-F106 | sample | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last50 sample contains 50 matches. | Defines how much trust that row family receives. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F107 | scoring | Belgium | high | Belgium's last50 scoring rate is 76%. | Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F108 | concession | Belgium | high | Belgium's last50 conceded rate is 56%. | Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F109 | clean sheet | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last50 clean-sheet rate is 44%. | Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F110 | BTTS | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last50 BTTS rate is 42%. | Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F111 | totals | Belgium | medium | Belgium's last50 over-3.5 rate is 36%. | Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F112 | sample | Spain | medium | Spain's last50 sample contains 50 matches. | Defines how much trust that row family receives. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F113 | scoring | Spain | high | Spain's last50 scoring rate is 86%. | Attacks 0-0 and failed-to-score branches. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F114 | concession | Spain | high | Spain's last50 conceded rate is 48%. | Decides whether the opponent scoring branch deserves preservation. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F115 | clean sheet | Spain | medium | Spain's last50 clean-sheet rate is 52%. | Feeds the clean-sheet override and no-BTTS fork. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F116 | BTTS | Spain | medium | Spain's last50 BTTS rate is 44%. | Forces the model to test whether both teams scoring is real. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F117 | totals | Spain | medium | Spain's last50 over-3.5 rate is 42%. | Attacks or supports 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, and higher chaos tails. | model_summary.csv |
| BELESP-F118 | candidate attack | Match | high | 1-1 is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.113553 and status LOCKED_C4. | Support: Raw count leader; Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. Attack: Spain current WC clean sheet 5/5 and Spain result edge. Decision: Kept as the only draw/block node. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F119 | candidate attack | Match | high | 1-2 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.082723 and status LOCKED_C4. | Support: Strongest Spain-win BTTS raw node; protects wall-break state. Attack: Spain 5/5 clean-sheet wall attacks any Belgium goal. Decision: Kept as wall-break representative. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F120 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 1-0 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.077936 and status EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD. | Support: Courtois and a single transition can produce a low upset. Attack: Spain scoring regularity and Spain control; Belgium clean-sheet branch has weaker support than Spain clean-sheet branch. Decision: Rejected because the clean-sheet fork points Spain, not Belgium. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F121 | candidate attack | Match | high | 0-1 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.075651 and status LOCKED_C4. | Support: Spain 5/5 current WC clean sheets and low-event knockout control. Attack: Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. Decision: Central clean-sheet node. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F122 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 2-0 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.058491 and status EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD. | Support: Belgium high last-10 scoring. Attack: Spain scoring regularity, Spain clean-sheet wall, and result thread. Decision: Belgium clean cushion is not supported against Spain's current defensive profile. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F123 | candidate attack | Match | high | 0-2 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.055112 and status LOCKED_C4. | Support: Clean-sheet ladder plus Spain quality. Attack: Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. Decision: Lowest Spain clean cushion. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F124 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 3-1 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.042639 and status EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD. | Support: Belgium last-10/high-volatility rows. Attack: Spain current concession zero plus high-total burden. Decision: Belgium high win needs stronger evidence than available. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F125 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 3-2 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.031063 and status EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD. | Support: Belgium chaos rows exist. Attack: Spain clean-sheet wall and five-goal total burden. Decision: No high-chaos proof. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F126 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 2-3 Spain is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.030152 and status EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD. | Support: Spain result plus both teams score. Attack: Spain current BTTS 0/5 and five-goal total burden. Decision: No high-chaos proof. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F127 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 3-0 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.029265 and status EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD. | Support: Belgium scoring ceiling. Attack: Spain result/scoring and Spain clean-sheet fork. Decision: Wrong clean-sheet side. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F128 | candidate attack | Match | medium | 4-1 Belgium is in the contradiction ledger with raw count 0.016000 and status EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD. | Support: Belgium 4-1/5-1 current tournament rows exist. Attack: Spain current clean-sheet wall; ruthless branch not proven. Decision: Ruthless Belgium branch rejected. | contradiction_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F129 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 4-1 against United States on 2026-07-06 in 2026 FIFA World Cup; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. | Row BEL-051 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 1, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F130 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-2 against Senegal on 2026-07-01 in 2026 World Cup Round of 32; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 86' Tielemans 89' , 120+5' ( pen. ). | Row BEL-050 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 2, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F131 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 5-1 against New Zealand on 2026-06-26 in 2026 World Cup Group G; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Trossard 28' , 50' De Bruyne 66' Lukaku 86' Saelemaekers 90+4'. | Row BEL-049 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 1, total 6. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F132 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 0-0 against Iran on 2026-06-21 in 2026 World Cup Group G; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Ngoy 66'. | Row BEL-048 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F133 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against Egypt on 2026-06-15 in 2026 World Cup Group G; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Hany 66' ( o.g. ). | Row BEL-047 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F134 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 5-0 against Tunisia on 2026-06-06 in 2026 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Trossard 28' De Ketelaere 53' De Bruyne 65' Lukébakio 85' Raskin 87'. | Row BEL-046 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 0, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F135 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 2-0 against Croatia on 2026-06-02 in 2026 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Tielemans 38' Lukaku 90+6'. | Row BEL-045 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 0, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F136 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against Mexico on 2026-03-31 in 2026 Friendly; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Lukébakio 47'. | Row BEL-044 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F137 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 5-2 against United States on 2026-03-28 in 2026 Friendly; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Debast 45' Onana 53' De Ketelaere 59' ( pen. ) Lukébakio 68' , 82'. | Row BEL-043 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 2, total 7. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F138 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 7-0 against Liechtenstein on 2025-11-18 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Vanaken 3' Doku 34' , 41' Mechele 52' Saelemaekers 55' De Ketelaere 57' , 59'. | Row BEL-042 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 7, GA 0, total 7. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F139 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against Kazakhstan on 2025-11-15 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Vanaken 48'. | Row BEL-041 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F140 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 4-2 against Wales on 2025-10-13 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: De Bruyne 18' ( pen. ) , 76' ( pen. ) Meunier 24' Trossard 90'. | Row BEL-040 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 2, total 6. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F141 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 0-0 against North Macedonia on 2025-10-10 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row BEL-039 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F142 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 6-0 against Kazakhstan on 2025-09-07 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: De Bruyne 42' , 84' Doku 44' , 60' Raskin 51' Meunier 87'. | Row BEL-038 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 6, GA 0, total 6. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F143 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 6-0 against Liechtenstein on 2025-09-04 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: De Cuyper 29' Tielemans 46' , 70' ( pen. ) Theate 60' De Bruyne 62' Fofana 90+1'. | Row BEL-037 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 6, GA 0, total 6. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F144 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 4-3 against Wales on 2025-06-09 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 15' ( pen. ) Tielemans 19' Doku 28' De Bruyne 88'. | Row BEL-036 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 3, total 7. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F145 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against North Macedonia on 2025-06-06 in 2025 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: De Cuyper 28'. | Row BEL-035 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F146 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-0 against Ukraine on 2025-03-23 in 2025 2024–25 Nations League PO; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: De Cuyper 70' Lukaku 75' , 86'. | Row BEL-034 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F147 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 1-3 against Ukraine on 2025-03-20 in 2025 2024–25 Nations League PO; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 40'. | Row BEL-033 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 3, total 4. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F148 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-1 against Israel on 2024-11-17 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-032 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 1, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F149 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-1 against Italy on 2024-11-14 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-031 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 1, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F150 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 1-2 against France on 2024-10-14 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Tielemans 23' Openda 45+3'. | Row BEL-030 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 2, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F151 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 2-2 against Italy on 2024-10-10 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Belgium: De Cuyper 42' Trossard 61'. | Row BEL-029 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 2, total 4. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F152 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-2 against France on 2024-09-09 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: low-event row. Scorers for Belgium: 42,358. | Row BEL-028 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 2, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F153 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-1 against Israel on 2024-09-06 in 2024–25 Nations League A; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: De Bruyne 21' , 52' ( pen. ) Tielemans 48'. | Row BEL-027 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 1, total 4. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F154 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-1 against France on 2024-07-01 in 2024 Euro 2024 R16; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-026 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 1, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F155 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 0-0 against Ukraine on 2024-06-26 in 2024 Euro 2024 GS; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row BEL-025 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F156 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 2-0 against Romania on 2024-06-22 in 2024 Euro 2024 GS; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Tielemans 2' De Bruyne 80'. | Row BEL-024 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 0, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F157 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-1 against Slovakia on 2024-06-17 in 2024 Euro 2024 GS; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-023 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 1, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F158 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-0 against Luxembourg on 2024-06-08 in 2024 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 42' ( pen. ) , 57' Trossard 81'. | Row BEL-022 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F159 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 2-0 against Montenegro on 2024-06-05 in 2024 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: De Bruyne 44' Trossard 90+3' ( pen. ). | Row BEL-021 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 0, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F160 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 2-2 against England on 2024-03-26 in 2024 Friendly; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Belgium: Tielemans 11' , 36'. | Row BEL-020 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 2, total 4. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F161 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 0-0 against Republic of Ireland on 2024-03-23 in 2024 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row BEL-019 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F162 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 5-0 against Azerbaijan on 2023-11-19 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 17' , 26' , 30' , 37' Trossard 90'. | Row BEL-018 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 0, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F163 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 1-0 against Serbia on 2023-11-15 in 2023 Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Carrasco 2'. | Row BEL-017 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F164 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against Sweden on 2023-10-16 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 31' ( pen. ). | Row BEL-016 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F165 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-2 against Austria on 2023-10-13 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Lukebakio 12' , 55' Lukaku 58'. | Row BEL-015 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 2, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F166 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 5-0 against Estonia on 2023-09-12 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Vertonghen 4' Trossard 18' Lukaku 56' , 58' De Ketelaere 88'. | Row BEL-014 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 0, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F167 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 1-0 against Azerbaijan on 2023-09-09 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Carrasco 38'. | Row BEL-013 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F168 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-0 against Estonia on 2023-06-20 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 37' , 40' Bakayoko 90'. | Row BEL-012 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F169 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 1-1 against Austria on 2023-06-17 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 61'. | Row BEL-011 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F170 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-2 against Germany on 2023-03-28 in 2023 Friendly; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Belgium: Carrasco 6' Lukaku 9' De Bruyne 78'. | Row BEL-010 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 2, total 5. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F171 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 3-0 against Sweden on 2023-03-24 in 2023 Euro 2024 Q; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Lukaku 35' , 49' , 83'. | Row BEL-009 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F172 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium D 0-0 against Croatia on 2022-12-01 in 2022 World Cup GS; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row BEL-008 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F173 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-2 against Morocco on 2022-11-27 in 2022 World Cup GS; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-007 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 2, total 2. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F174 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 1-0 against Canada on 2022-11-23 in 2022 World Cup GS; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Batshuayi 44'. | Row BEL-006 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F175 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 1-2 against Egypt on 2022-11-18 in 2022 Friendly; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: Openda 76'. | Row BEL-005 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 2, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F176 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium L 0-1 against Netherlands on 2022-09-25 in 2022–23 Nations League A; row tags: low-event row. | Row BEL-004 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 1, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F177 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 2-1 against Wales on 2022-09-22 in 2022–23 Nations League A; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Belgium: De Bruyne 10' Batshuayi 37'. | Row BEL-003 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 1, total 3. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F178 | last-50 row | Belgium | low | Belgium W 1-0 against Poland on 2022-06-14 in 2022–23 Nations League A; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Belgium: Batshuayi 16'. | Row BEL-002 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | BEL_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F179 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 1-0 against Portugal on 2026-07-06 in 2026 FIFA World Cup; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row ESP-051 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F180 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-0 against Austria on 2026-07-02 in 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 36' , 89' Porro 66'. | Row ESP-050 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F181 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 1-0 against Uruguay on 2026-06-26 in 2026 FIFA World Cup Group H; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Baena 42'. | Row ESP-049 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 0, total 1. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F182 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 4-0 against Saudi Arabia on 2026-06-21 in 2026 FIFA World Cup Group H; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Yamal 10' Oyarzabal 21' , 24' Al-Tambakti 49' ( o.g. ). | Row ESP-048 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 0, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F183 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 0-0 against Cape Verde on 2026-06-15 in 2026 FIFA World Cup Group H; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row ESP-047 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F184 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-1 against Peru on 2026-06-08 in Friendly; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 2' Pedri 32' Gallese 55' ( o.g. ). | Row ESP-046 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 1, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F185 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 1-1 against Iraq on 2026-06-04 in Friendly; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Spain: Torres 16'. | Row ESP-045 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 1, GA 1, total 2. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F186 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 0-0 against Egypt on 2026-03-31 in Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. | Row ESP-044 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 0, GA 0, total 0. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F187 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-0 against Serbia on 2026-03-27 in Friendly; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 16' , 44' Muñoz 72'. | Row ESP-043 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F188 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 2-2 against Turkey on 2025-11-18 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Spain: Olmo 4' Oyarzabal 62'. | Row ESP-041 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 2, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F189 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 4-0 against Georgia on 2025-11-15 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 11' ( pen. ) , 63' Zubimendi 22' Torres 35'. | Row ESP-040 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 0, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F190 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 4-0 against Bulgaria on 2025-10-14 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Merino 35' , 57' Chernev 64' ( o.g. ) Oyarzabal 90+2' ( pen. ). | Row ESP-039 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 4, GA 0, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F191 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 2-0 against Georgia on 2025-10-11 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Pino 24' Oyarzabal 64'. | Row ESP-038 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 0, total 2. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F192 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 6-0 against Turkey on 2025-09-07 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, over 3.5, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Pedri 6' , 62' Merino 22' , 45+1' , 57' Torres 53'. | Row ESP-037 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 6, GA 0, total 6. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F193 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-0 against Bulgaria on 2025-09-04 in 2026 World Cup Q; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 5' Cucurella 30' Merino 38'. | Row ESP-036 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F194 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 2-2 against Portugal on 2025-06-08 in Nations League F; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Spain: Zubimendi 21' Oyarzabal 45'. | Row ESP-035 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 2, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F195 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 5-4 against France on 2025-06-05 in Nations League SF; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Spain: Williams 22' Merino 25' Yamal 54' ( pen. ) , 67' Pedri 55'. | Row ESP-034 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 5, GA 4, total 9. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F196 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 3-3 against Netherlands on 2025-03-23 in Nations League QF; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 8' ( pen. ) , 67' Yamal 103'. | Row ESP-033 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 3, total 6. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F197 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain D 2-2 against Netherlands on 2025-03-20 in Nations League QF; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5. Scorers for Spain: Williams 9' Merino 90+3'. | Row ESP-032 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 2, total 4. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F198 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-2 against Switzerland on 2024-11-18 in Nations League; row tags: BTTS, over 3.5, three-plus scored. Scorers for Spain: Pedri 32' Pino 32' Gil 68' Zaragoza 90+3' ( pen. ). | Row ESP-031 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 2, total 5. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F199 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 2-1 against Denmark on 2024-11-15 in Nations League; row tags: BTTS. Scorers for Spain: Oyarzabal 15' Pérez 58'. | Row ESP-030 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 2, GA 1, total 3. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
| BELESP-F200 | last-50 row | Spain | low | Spain W 3-0 against Serbia on 2024-10-15 in Nations League; row tags: clean sheet, three-plus scored, opponent blanked. Scorers for Spain: Laporte 5' Morata 65' Baena 77'. | Row ESP-029 informs scoring, clean-sheet, BTTS, and total-goal priors with GF 3, GA 0, total 3. | ESP_match_ledger.csv |
Contradiction ledger
Every candidate is attacked before it survives.
| Score | Raw P | Branch | Strongest support | Strongest attack | Rule | Status | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 0.113553 | draw/block | Raw count leader; Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. | Spain current WC clean sheet 5/5 and Spain result edge. | R6 | LOCKED_C4 | Kept as the only draw/block node. |
| 2-1 Belgium | 0.085221 | Belgium by one | Belgium volatility and home-side score pressure. | Spain current WC conceded 0, Spain quality, and no verified Belgium-vs-Spain-realm scoring proof. | R7 | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD | Belgium by-one loses to Spain by-one after clean-sheet override and result thread. |
| 1-2 Spain | 0.082723 | Spain by one / BTTS | Strongest Spain-win BTTS raw node; protects wall-break state. | Spain 5/5 clean-sheet wall attacks any Belgium goal. | R5 | LOCKED_C4 | Kept as wall-break representative. |
| 1-0 Belgium | 0.077936 | Belgium clean upset | Courtois and a single transition can produce a low upset. | Spain scoring regularity and Spain control; Belgium clean-sheet branch has weaker support than Spain clean-sheet branch. | R7 | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD | Rejected because the clean-sheet fork points Spain, not Belgium. |
| 0-1 Spain | 0.075651 | Spain clean low | Spain 5/5 current WC clean sheets and low-event knockout control. | Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. | R1/R3 | LOCKED_C4 | Central clean-sheet node. |
| 2-2 | 0.062084 | high draw | Both attacks survive and raw count remains plausible. | Spain current WC BTTS 0/5 and over 3.5 only 1/5; high draw asks both wall-break and high-total proof. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD | High draw loses to 1-1 as draw representative. |
| 2-0 Belgium | 0.058491 | Belgium clean cushion | Belgium high last-10 scoring. | Spain scoring regularity, Spain clean-sheet wall, and result thread. | R7 | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD | Belgium clean cushion is not supported against Spain's current defensive profile. |
| 0-2 Spain | 0.055112 | Spain clean cushion | Clean-sheet ladder plus Spain quality. | Belgium current WC BTTS 4/5. | R1/R4 | LOCKED_C4 | Lowest Spain clean cushion. |
| 0-0 | 0.051923 | no-score draw | Spain clean sheet and knockout caution. | Both teams scoring rates and Spain attacking quality. | R6 | EXCLUDED_BY_SCORING_THREAD | Draw representative is 1-1, not 0-0. |
| 3-1 Belgium | 0.042639 | Belgium high BTTS win | Belgium last-10/high-volatility rows. | Spain current concession zero plus high-total burden. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD | Belgium high win needs stronger evidence than available. |
| 1-3 Spain | 0.040176 | Spain high BTTS win | Spain result plus Belgium wall-break. | Over-3.5 burden and Spain lower-current total pattern. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD | Loses to 1-2 as Spain BTTS representative. |
| 3-2 Belgium | 0.031063 | chaos / Belgium | Belgium chaos rows exist. | Spain clean-sheet wall and five-goal total burden. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD | No high-chaos proof. |
| 2-3 Spain | 0.030152 | chaos / Spain | Spain result plus both teams score. | Spain current BTTS 0/5 and five-goal total burden. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD | No high-chaos proof. |
| 3-0 Belgium | 0.029265 | Belgium cushion clean | Belgium scoring ceiling. | Spain result/scoring and Spain clean-sheet fork. | R7 | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD | Wrong clean-sheet side. |
| 0-3 Spain | 0.026766 | Spain ruthless clean | Spain clean-sheet ladder. | Over-2.5/ruthless burden; 0-2 already represents the clean cushion. | R4 | EXCLUDED_BY_INDEX_COMPARISON | Adjacent clean cushion loses to 0-2. |
| 4-1 Belgium | 0.016000 | Belgium ruthless BTTS | Belgium 4-1/5-1 current tournament rows exist. | Spain current clean-sheet wall; ruthless branch not proven. | R8 | EXCLUDED_BY_TOTAL_THREAD | Ruthless Belgium branch rejected. |
Proof engine
Definitions, rules, lemmas, theorem.
Mathematical object
The proof selects from a finite score grid.
For a score node s=(b,e), Turtle begins with a count kernel and then requires the branch to survive contradiction. The formula is not the whole proof; it is the object the proof attacks.
Pcount(b,e)
=
Pois(b; λBEL) · Pois(e; λESP)
Activates at least one Spain clean-sheet node unless numerically defeated.
Prevents the public card from becoming only no-BTTS Spain outcomes.
Every candidate is compared against its strongest opposing fact before inclusion.
Definition 1. C4 is exactly four regulation-time score nodes. C4 succeeds if the final regulation score lands inside the set.
Definition 2. A score cannot enter C4 until its strongest opposing fact has been written in the contradiction ledger.
Rule R1. Extreme clean-sheet evidence activates a clean-sheet override: if a team has a verified current-tournament non-concession run, at least one clean-sheet node for that team must enter C4 unless a stronger numeric branch defeats it.
Rule R2. Human/prior failure signals are preserved: after Portugal-Spain, Spain clean-sheet scores cannot be ignored when Spain have a verified clean-sheet streak.
Rule R3. Within a branch, keep the most central node unless an adjacent cushion node is required by spread evidence.
Lemma 1. R1 is active because Spain current WC clean-sheet rate is 5/5 and Spain last-10 clean-sheet rate is 70%.
Lemma 2. Belgium scoring cannot be deleted because Belgium current WC BTTS is 4/5 and Belgium last-10 BTTS is 60%.
Lemma 3. By Lemma 1 and R3, Belgium 0-1 Spain is included. By the same clean-sheet fork and cushion rule, Belgium 0-2 Spain is included.
Lemma 4. By Lemma 2, one Spain-win BTTS node survives; the strongest such node is Belgium 1-2 Spain. The draw branch is represented by Belgium 1-1, not 0-0 or 2-2, because 1-1 is the raw count leader and the lower-total draw representative.
Theorem. Under Definitions 1-2, Rules R1-R3, and Lemmas 1-4, the locked C4 is exactly {Belgium 0-1 Spain, Belgium 0-2 Spain, Belgium 1-2 Spain, Belgium 1-1 Spain}.
Support market / after lock / analysis only
Support markets cannot become the prediction.
The score cloud is locked before this table. The rows below only describe alignment with C4. Turtle is not publishing EV or position-sizing guidance until formal EV, risk, and correlation tables exist.
| Market | Role | Alignment | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 regulation goals | analysis_only | Aligned with all four C4 nodes. | Protects 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-1; no EV table is published. |
| Under 2.5 regulation goals | postgame_lesson | Not full-card support. | It conflicts with 1-2 Spain, the winning C4 node; future support rows must say partial when they kill a locked score. |
| Over 1.5 regulation goals | analysis_only | Partial alignment. | Protects 0-2, 1-2, 1-1 but conflicts with 0-1. |
| BTTS yes | analysis_only | Partial alignment. | Protects 1-2 and 1-1; conflicts with 0-1 and 0-2. |
| BTTS no | analysis_only | Partial alignment. | Protects 0-1 and 0-2; conflicts with 1-2 and 1-1. |
Postgame analysis / settled C4 hit
Belgium 1-2 Spain landed inside the locked C4.
The clean-sheet wall broke, but the proof had preserved the exact wall-break Spain-win node. C4-3 was not decoration: it was the branch that said Belgium can score once without overturning Spain's result edge.
Belgium 1-2 Spain matched the locked C4-3 node.
0-1 and 0-2 were live proof branches, but Belgium broke the wall.
R5 kept the strongest Spain-result BTTS node despite the clean-sheet attack.
It conflicts with 1-2 Spain, so it cannot be called full-card support.