# Why This Card Can Fail

1. Belgium may break Spain's clean-sheet wall and win rather than merely draw or lose narrowly.
2. Spain may turn the clean-sheet fork ruthless, making 0-3 more correct than 0-2.
3. The match may become high-chaos after an early goal, making 2-2, 1-3, or 2-3 live.
4. Preview-level player information may be wrong if the official XI differs from the expected lineups.
5. Sparse opponent-threshold rows mean the model still uses shrinkage rather than a fully mature realm sample.

This is a medium-readiness lock, not a claim of certainty.

## Postgame settlement

The card did not fail. Final regulation score was Belgium 1-2 Spain, which landed on C4-3. The clean-sheet branch failed, but the preserved Belgium wall-break plus Spain-result branch was the correct containment route.