Model probability layer
Egypt win was the largest result bucket, but the draw bucket was large enough that one draw score had to survive the public card.
Project Turtle / Pregame score lab / July 3, 2026
Australia vs Egypt
Round of 32, 2:00 PM ET, AT&T Stadium in Arlington/Dallas. Turtle is showing the math: last-50 ledgers, lineup continuity, data coverage, then the exact-score orbital.
Last-50 ledgersCollected
Current squadsCollected
Lineup overlapPartial: WC rows
Model postureAnalysis only
Pregame / postgame analysis
The 1-1 draw branch was written before full time.
Pregame analysisFour-score card: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2.
Egypt were the stronger modeled side: Egypt win mass was 41.0%, draw mass was 30.1%, and Australia win mass was 28.8%. That made an Egypt-leaning card rational, but it did not justify deleting the draw branch.
The exact score ranking made the tension visible. The 0-1 leader had index .794, while 1-1 held index .738 and probability 13.3%. Because both teams' draw modes concentrated around 1-1, Turtle preserved 1-1 as a first-class disclosed score rather than treating it as a vague hedge.
Over 1.5 was the support layer because the selected cloud needed the match to escape 0-0 without demanding a four-goal game.
Postgame analysisFinal score: Australia 1-1 Egypt.
The regulation score settled exactly at 1-1. This is the clean draw-branch example: the match did not validate a generic draw feeling; it validated the specific nonzero draw representative selected by the score grid.
The carry-forward rule is that a draw branch can be a score score when it has both probability support and ledger support. Turtle must not always force the card into a favorite/underdog win family.
Evidence figures / pregame data
The draw branch was not a vibe. It was visible in the numbers.
Australia-Egypt is the cleanest example of why Turtle needs branches, not only the single largest cell. Egypt were the stronger side, but both teams' draw histories concentrated around 1-1, and the model's total-goal layer preferred a low-to-moderate match rather than a dead 0-0.
Candidate score ranking
0-1
I=.794 / P=14.8%
1-1
I=.738 / P=13.3%
0-0
I=.687 / P=12.9%
1-0
I=.609 / P=11.7%
0-2
I=.538 / P=8.4%
1-2
I=.530 / P=7.6%
The final 1-1 landed because it was not merely plausible; it was the top nonzero draw representative after excluding 0-0.
The draw branch existed before kickoff.
Egypt's draw mode made 1-1 stronger than a generic hedge.
Do not let the favorite lean erase a high-index draw cell.
Final Turtle analyst card
Australia vs Egypt - July 3, 2026, 2:00 PM ET
Notation is AUS-EGY. This is a regulation-time score cloud, not an overtime/advance prediction. Turtle now uses three prediction modes: clean Egypt win, draw branch, and Egypt concede-and-win branch.
Prediction lock
2026-07-03 1:59 PM ET
Locked in the working chat immediately before kickoff.
Scheduled kickoff
2026-07-03 2:00 PM ET
Round of 32, AT&T Stadium in Arlington/Dallas.
Public analysis note
No stake details
Prediction locked in chat before kickoff; public page publish/deploy finalized after kickoff.
- Branch
- Egypt win
- Poisson
- 14.8%
- Bucket
- 31.5%
Egypt's strongest win shape is 1-0, and Australia have repeated 0-1 loss shape. This is the cleanest Egypt-win cell.
- Branch
- Draw
- Poisson
- 13.3%
- Bucket
- 46.1%
Both draw buckets support 1-1, especially Egypt: 10 of 17 Egypt draws were 1-1. It also respects the concern that Egypt can concede.
- Branch
- Egypt win
- Poisson
- 7.6%
- Bucket
- 24.1%
Egypt 2-1 aligns with Egypt winning while conceding, and Australia losses have strong 1-2 support. This is the over-1.5 support score.
Support hedge
Over 1.5 is structurally cleaner than Over 2.5
Over 1.5 supports three of the four final scores: 1-1, 1-2, and 2-2. It also covers nearby Egypt 0-2 and several broken-game branches. Over 2.5 supports 1-2 and 2-2 from the card, so it is a more aggressive add than the cleaner Over 1.5 support.
Over 1.5 model
60.6%
Best support hedge if price is acceptable.
Over 2.5 model
33.5%
Tail support only; not the clean hedge.
BTTS model
40.5%
Similar to Over 1.5 for 1-1 and 1-2, but narrower.
| Rank | Score | Branch | Mode | Poisson | Bucket support | Analyst thesis | Risk note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | Egypt win | Core Egypt lean | 14.8% | 31.5% | Egypt's strongest win shape is 1-0, and Australia have repeated 0-1 loss shape. This is the cleanest Egypt-win cell. | Fails if Australia break the match open or Egypt's clean-sheet branch is overtrusted. |
| 2 | 1-1 | Draw | Core draw branch | 13.3% | 46.1% | Both draw buckets support 1-1, especially Egypt: 10 of 17 Egypt draws were 1-1. It also respects the concern that Egypt can concede. | Fails if the match stays dead at 0-0 or Egypt convert superiority into a regulation win. |
| 3 | 1-2 | Egypt win | Concede-and-win Egypt branch | 7.6% | 24.1% | Egypt 2-1 aligns with Egypt winning while conceding, and Australia losses have strong 1-2 support. This is the over-1.5 support score. | Fails if Egypt win by clean sheet or if Australia score first and suppress the game. |
Compact score orbital
Top five exact scores
#1
0-1
#2
1-1
#3
0-0
#4
1-0
#5
0-2
Compact cloud cumulative probability: 61.2%. Turtle needs 8 scorelines for 80% wide-orbit mass and 12 for 90% wide-orbit mass.
Math problem
Given -> formula -> orbital
The model is intentionally compact. It blends last-50 base rates, lineup-weighted World Cup rows, and pregame availability multipliers, then converts expected goals into an exact-score probability grid.
Australia GF / GA last 50
1.66 / 0.76
Base scoring and concession rates.
Egypt GF / GA last 50
1.64 / 0.78
Base scoring and concession rates.
Australia lineup rows
3 rows
Weight sum 2.44.
Egypt lineup rows
3 rows
Weight sum 2.69.
Pace x availability AUS
0.92 x 0.94
Knockout context plus team-news adjustment.
Pace x availability EGY
0.92 x 1.05
Knockout context plus team-news adjustment.
Formula provenance. Turtle did not copy a prediction formula from a preview article. This is the current lab blend: long-run team rates, lineup-weighted World Cup rows, then a standard independent Poisson count model.
Long plus lineup signal
Ai = 0.55 GF50i + 0.45 GFrecenti
AUS 1.213 / EGY 1.666
Defensive concession signal
Di = 0.55 GA50i + 0.45 GArecenti
AUS 0.695 / EGY 0.879
Raw expected goals
λrawAUS = (AAUS + DEGY) / 2
AUS 1.046 / EGY 1.180
Pace and availability
λi = λrawi x mpace x mavailability
AUS 0.905 / EGY 1.140
Exact-score grid
P(AUS=a, EGY=e) = P(XAUS=a) x P(XEGY=e)
Independent Poisson
Full analysis ledger
Sources, transformations, and correct math
This is the no-leak chain Turtle used for today's page. The prediction is generated from pregame source rows and local formulas only; the market can be compared later, but it is not an input here.
Rendered national-team results tables supply date, opponent, venue, competition, final score, scorer text, and team-perspective GF/GA.
Current-squad pages rank caps and clubs. The probable XVI is today's likely starting 11 plus five important substitutes, used only for lineup-continuity weights.
Guardian team news affects availability. Preview lineup, corner, and shot notes are marked secondary and do not override the last-50 score model.
World Cup group reports and tactical lineups are linked for postgame review. Shots, shots on target, and corners are not ingested into the lambda model yet.
Data transformations
How the source rows become model features
Cutoff
Keep only rows before Australia vs Egypt on 2026-07-03. The target match and postgame reports cannot enter the model.
Team perspective
Normalize every score into goals_for and goals_against from the selected team's perspective.
Binary shape flags
Derive scored, failed_to_score, conceded, clean_sheet, BTTS, over_1_5, over_2_5, and over_3_5 from GF/GA.
Lineup continuity
Rows with tactical lineup evidence receive w_r = current_XVI_played / 16. Current usable weighted rows: 6.
Exclusions
Market prices, postgame xG, row-level shots/corners, and unverified EA FC ratings are excluded from this score-orbital calculation.
Computed values
Every number feeding the lambdas
| Quantity | Formula | Australia | Egypt | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GF50 | sum(goals_for) / 50 |
1.6600 | 1.6400 | Last-50 attack base rate. |
| GA50 | sum(goals_against) / 50 |
0.7600 | 0.7800 | Last-50 defensive concession base rate. |
| GF_recent | sum(w_r * GF_r) / sum(w_r) |
0.6667 | 1.6977 | Only rows with current-XVI lineup evidence receive weights. |
| GA_recent | sum(w_r * GA_r) / sum(w_r) |
0.6154 | 1.0000 | Same weighted recent rows, but for concessions. |
| A_i | 0.55 * GF50 + 0.45 * GF_recent |
1.2130 | 1.6660 | Attacking component consumed by the expected-goals blend. |
| D_i | 0.55 * GA50 + 0.45 * GA_recent |
0.6949 | 0.8790 | Defensive weakness component faced by the opponent. |
| lambda_raw | (A_i + D_opponent) / 2 |
1.0460 | 1.1804 | Team attack meets opponent concession tendency. |
| lambda_final | lambda_raw * pace_multiplier * availability_multiplier |
0.9046 | 1.1403 | Final expected goals used in the Poisson grid. |
Score-grid proof
How the orbital and market-shape probabilities are computed
Top-score multiplication
Each exact score is one Australia Poisson term multiplied by one Egypt Poisson term.
| Score | Australia term | Egypt term | Product | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Pois(0; 0.905) = 0.4047 | Pois(1; 1.140) = 0.3646 | 0.4047 * 0.3646 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | Pois(1; 0.905) = 0.3661 | Pois(1; 1.140) = 0.3646 | 0.3661 * 0.3646 | 13.3% |
| 0-0 | Pois(0; 0.905) = 0.4047 | Pois(0; 1.140) = 0.3197 | 0.4047 * 0.3197 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | Pois(1; 0.905) = 0.3661 | Pois(0; 1.140) = 0.3197 | 0.3661 * 0.3197 | 11.7% |
| 0-2 | Pois(0; 0.905) = 0.4047 | Pois(2; 1.140) = 0.2079 | 0.4047 * 0.2079 | 8.4% |
Derived match shapes
Markets like BTTS and totals are not guessed directly. They are sums over the same score grid.
| Output | Grid formula | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Australia win | sum P(a,e) where a > e | 28.8% |
| Regulation draw | sum P(a,e) where a = e | 30.1% |
| Egypt win | sum P(a,e) where e > a | 41.0% |
| BTTS yes | sum P(a,e) where a >= 1 and e >= 1 | 40.5% |
| Over 1.5 | sum P(a,e) where a + e >= 2 | 60.6% |
| Over 2.5 | sum P(a,e) where a + e >= 3 | 33.5% |
| Over 3.5 | sum P(a,e) where a + e >= 4 | 15.1% |
Boundary condition.
The compact five-score orbital is not an 80% claim. With this grid, 80% wide-orbit mass requires 8 scorelines and 90% wide-orbit mass requires 12 scorelines. The compact cloud is the ranked prediction set, not the whole probability mass.
Result-bucket math
Wins, draws, and losses have different score shapes
This section checks the question directly: when Egypt wins, how many do they score and concede; when Australia wins, how many do they score and concede; and what draw scorelines actually appear? It is a diagnostic layer for the prediction, not a market input.
B_{i,r} = {m in M_i : result(m) = r}
GFbar_{i,r} = sum GF_m / |B_{i,r}|
GAbar_{i,r} = sum GA_m / |B_{i,r}|
p_{i,r}(s) = count(score=s) / |B_{i,r}|
- Avg GF
- 2.448
- Avg GA
- 0.276
- Modes
- 1-0 (9/29); 2-0 (8/29); 2-1 (3/29); 3-1 (3/29)
- Avg GF
- 0.778
- Avg GA
- 0.778
- Modes
- 0-0 (4/9); 1-1 (3/9); 2-2 (2/9)
- Avg GF
- 0.417
- Avg GA
- 1.917
- Modes
- 1-2 (4/12); 0-1 (4/12); 0-2 (2/12); 1-4 (1/12)
- Avg GF
- 2.296
- Avg GA
- 0.296
- Modes
- 1-0 (8/27); 2-0 (5/27); 2-1 (4/27); 4-0 (3/27)
- Avg GF
- 0.941
- Avg GA
- 0.941
- Modes
- 1-1 (10/17); 0-0 (4/17); 2-2 (3/17)
- Avg GF
- 0.667
- Avg GA
- 2.500
- Modes
- 1-3 (1/6); 2-4 (1/6); 0-2 (1/6); 0-3 (1/6)
Prediction-only data table
Bucket averages by team
| Team | Bucket | Matches | GF | GA | Avg GF | Avg GA | Avg total | Avg GD | Scoreline modes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Wins | 29 | 71 | 8 | 2.448 | 0.276 | 2.724 | 2.172 | 1-0 (9/29); 2-0 (8/29); 2-1 (3/29); 3-1 (3/29) |
| Australia | Draws | 9 | 7 | 7 | 0.778 | 0.778 | 1.556 | 0.000 | 0-0 (4/9); 1-1 (3/9); 2-2 (2/9) |
| Australia | Losses | 12 | 5 | 23 | 0.417 | 1.917 | 2.333 | -1.500 | 1-2 (4/12); 0-1 (4/12); 0-2 (2/12); 1-4 (1/12) |
| Egypt | Wins | 27 | 62 | 8 | 2.296 | 0.296 | 2.593 | 2.000 | 1-0 (8/27); 2-0 (5/27); 2-1 (4/27); 4-0 (3/27) |
| Egypt | Draws | 17 | 16 | 16 | 0.941 | 0.941 | 1.882 | 0.000 | 1-1 (10/17); 0-0 (4/17); 2-2 (3/17) |
| Egypt | Losses | 6 | 4 | 15 | 0.667 | 2.500 | 3.167 | -1.833 | 1-3 (1/6); 2-4 (1/6); 0-2 (1/6); 0-3 (1/6) |
Scoreline distribution
Actual scorelines inside each bucket
| Team | Bucket | Scoreline | Count | Share | Recent examples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Wins | 1-0 | 9 | 31.0% | 2026-03-27 Cameroon; 2025-10-10 Canada; 2025-09-05 New Zealand; 2025-06-05 Japan |
| Australia | Wins | 2-0 | 8 | 27.6% | 2026-06-13 Turkey; 2025-03-25 China; 2024-06-06 Bangladesh; 2024-03-21 Lebanon |
| Australia | Wins | 2-1 | 3 | 10.3% | 2025-06-10 Saudi Arabia; 2022-06-07 United Arab Emirates; 2022-06-01 Jordan |
| Australia | Wins | 3-1 | 3 | 10.3% | 2025-09-09 New Zealand; 2024-10-10 China; 2023-03-24 Ecuador |
| Australia | Wins | 5-0 | 2 | 6.9% | 2024-06-11 Palestine; 2024-03-26 Lebanon |
| Australia | Wins | 5-1 | 2 | 6.9% | 2026-03-31 Curaçao; 2025-03-20 Indonesia |
| Australia | Wins | 7-0 | 1 | 3.5% | 2023-11-16 Bangladesh |
| Australia | Wins | 4-0 | 1 | 3.5% | 2024-01-28 Indonesia |
| Australia | Draws | 0-0 | 4 | 44.4% | 2026-06-25 Paraguay; 2024-11-14 Saudi Arabia; 2024-09-10 Indonesia; 2022-06-13 Peru |
| Australia | Draws | 1-1 | 3 | 33.3% | 2026-06-06 Switzerland; 2024-10-15 Japan; 2024-01-23 Uzbekistan |
| Australia | Draws | 2-2 | 2 | 22.2% | 2024-11-19 Bahrain; 2023-09-09 Mexico |
| Australia | Losses | 1-2 | 4 | 33.3% | 2025-10-14 United States; 2024-02-02 South Korea; 2023-03-28 Ecuador; 2022-12-03 Argentina |
| Australia | Losses | 0-1 | 4 | 33.3% | 2026-05-30 Mexico; 2025-11-14 Venezuela; 2024-09-05 Bahrain; 2023-10-13 England |
| Australia | Losses | 0-2 | 2 | 16.7% | 2026-06-19 United States; 2023-06-15 Argentina |
| Australia | Losses | 1-4 | 1 | 8.3% | 2022-11-22 France |
| Australia | Losses | 0-3 | 1 | 8.3% | 2025-11-18 Colombia |
| Egypt | Wins | 1-0 | 8 | 29.6% | 2026-05-28 Russia; 2025-12-26 South Africa; 2025-10-12 Guinea-Bissau; 2025-03-25 Sierra Leone |
| Egypt | Wins | 2-0 | 5 | 18.5% | 2025-09-05 Ethiopia; 2025-03-21 Ethiopia; 2024-10-11 Mauritania; 2024-01-07 Tanzania |
| Egypt | Wins | 2-1 | 4 | 14.8% | 2025-12-22 Zimbabwe; 2025-12-16 Nigeria; 2024-06-06 Burkina Faso; 2023-06-14 Guinea |
| Egypt | Wins | 4-0 | 3 | 11.1% | 2026-03-27 Saudi Arabia; 2024-09-10 Botswana; 2023-03-28 Malawi |
| Egypt | Wins | 3-0 | 3 | 11.1% | 2025-10-08 Djibouti; 2024-09-06 Cape Verde; 2023-06-18 South Sudan |
| Egypt | Wins | 3-1 | 2 | 7.4% | 2026-06-21 New Zealand; 2026-01-05 Benin |
| Egypt | Wins | 6-0 | 1 | 3.7% | 2023-11-16 Djibouti |
| Egypt | Wins | 3-2 | 1 | 3.7% | 2026-01-10 Ivory Coast |
| Egypt | Draws | 1-1 | 10 | 58.8% | 2026-06-26 Iran; 2026-06-15 Belgium; 2025-12-06 United Arab Emirates; 2025-12-02 Kuwait |
| Egypt | Draws | 0-0 | 4 | 23.5% | 2026-03-31 Spain; 2026-01-17 Nigeria; 2025-12-29 Angola; 2025-09-09 Burkina Faso |
| Egypt | Draws | 2-2 | 3 | 17.6% | 2024-01-22 Cape Verde; 2024-01-18 Ghana; 2024-01-14 Mozambique |
| Egypt | Losses | 1-3 | 1 | 16.7% | 2023-09-12 Tunisia |
| Egypt | Losses | 2-4 | 1 | 16.7% | 2024-03-26 Croatia |
| Egypt | Losses | 0-2 | 1 | 16.7% | 2025-11-14 Uzbekistan |
| Egypt | Losses | 0-3 | 1 | 16.7% | 2025-12-09 Jordan |
| Egypt | Losses | 0-1 | 1 | 16.7% | 2026-01-14 Senegal |
| Egypt | Losses | 1-2 | 1 | 16.7% | 2026-06-06 Brazil |
Model caution.
A simple average can hide structure. Example: a team can average near 2.0 goals in wins while still concentrating most wins around 1-0 and 2-1. Turtle should use this table to decide which exact scores deserve cloud slots, then test whether the Poisson grid is too smooth.
Math reconciliation
Top exact scores are cells; the prediction is a cloud
Over 1.5 at about 60.6% does not mean every high-ranked exact score must be over 1.5. Exact scores are small cells; over/under and result branches are unions of many cells. Turtle now separates the two views.
P(0-0) + P(1-0) + P(0-1)
Only these exact-score cells lose over 1.5.
sum P(a,e) where a+e >= 2
This includes 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, and every higher branch.
sum of the five highest exact-score cells
This is a rank view, not a complete prediction cloud.
top-five cells split by over 1.5 condition
This exposes why the display can feel contradictory even when the sums are consistent.
Branch-aware selection
Diagnostic cloud after bucket support
Selection index is not a probability. It is a transparent ranking tool: 50% Poisson exact-cell rank, 30% historical bucket support, and 20% result-branch mass. This is the layer that decides which exact scores deserve attention before market comparison.
- Poisson
- 14.8%
- Bucket support
- 31.5%
- Index
- 0.794
EGY wins 1-0: 8/27; AUS losses 0-1: 4/12
- Poisson
- 13.3%
- Bucket support
- 46.1%
- Index
- 0.738
AUS draws 1-1: 3/9; EGY draws 1-1: 10/17
- Poisson
- 12.9%
- Bucket support
- 34.0%
- Index
- 0.687
AUS draws 0-0: 4/9; EGY draws 0-0: 4/17
- Poisson
- 11.7%
- Bucket support
- 23.9%
- Index
- 0.609
AUS wins 1-0: 9/29; EGY losses 0-1: 1/6
- Poisson
- 8.4%
- Bucket support
- 17.6%
- Index
- 0.538
EGY wins 2-0: 5/27; AUS losses 0-2: 2/12
- Poisson
- 7.6%
- Bucket support
- 24.1%
- Index
- 0.530
EGY wins 2-1: 4/27; AUS losses 1-2: 4/12
- Poisson
- 5.3%
- Bucket support
- 22.1%
- Index
- 0.386
AUS wins 2-0: 8/29; EGY losses 0-2: 1/6
- Poisson
- 6.0%
- Bucket support
- 13.5%
- Index
- 0.386
AUS wins 2-1: 3/29; EGY losses 1-2: 1/6
| Rank | Score | Branch | Poisson | Branch prob | Bucket support | Selection index | Support detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | Egypt win | 14.8% | 41.0% | 31.5% | 0.794 | EGY wins 1-0: 8/27; AUS losses 0-1: 4/12 |
| 2 | 1-1 | Draw | 13.3% | 30.1% | 46.1% | 0.738 | AUS draws 1-1: 3/9; EGY draws 1-1: 10/17 |
| 3 | 0-0 | Draw | 12.9% | 30.1% | 34.0% | 0.687 | AUS draws 0-0: 4/9; EGY draws 0-0: 4/17 |
| 4 | 1-0 | Australia win | 11.7% | 28.8% | 23.9% | 0.609 | AUS wins 1-0: 9/29; EGY losses 0-1: 1/6 |
| 5 | 0-2 | Egypt win | 8.4% | 41.0% | 17.6% | 0.538 | EGY wins 2-0: 5/27; AUS losses 0-2: 2/12 |
| 6 | 1-2 | Egypt win | 7.6% | 41.0% | 24.1% | 0.530 | EGY wins 2-1: 4/27; AUS losses 1-2: 4/12 |
| 7 | 2-0 | Australia win | 5.3% | 28.8% | 22.1% | 0.386 | AUS wins 2-0: 8/29; EGY losses 0-2: 1/6 |
| 8 | 2-1 | Australia win | 6.0% | 28.8% | 13.5% | 0.386 | AUS wins 2-1: 3/29; EGY losses 1-2: 1/6 |
| 9 | 0-3 | Egypt win | 3.2% | 41.0% | 9.7% | 0.338 | EGY wins 3-0: 3/27; AUS losses 0-3: 1/12 |
| 10 | 2-2 | Draw | 3.4% | 30.1% | 19.9% | 0.323 | AUS draws 2-2: 2/9; EGY draws 2-2: 3/17 |
| 11 | 1-3 | Egypt win | 2.9% | 41.0% | 3.7% | 0.309 | EGY wins 3-1: 2/27; AUS losses 1-3: 0/12 |
| 12 | 2-3 | Egypt win | 1.3% | 41.0% | 1.9% | 0.250 | EGY wins 3-2: 1/27; AUS losses 2-3: 0/12 |
| 13 | 0-4 | Egypt win | 0.9% | 41.0% | 5.6% | 0.248 | EGY wins 4-0: 3/27; AUS losses 0-4: 0/12 |
| 14 | 3-1 | Australia win | 1.8% | 28.8% | 13.5% | 0.243 | AUS wins 3-1: 3/29; EGY losses 1-3: 1/6 |
| 15 | 1-4 | Egypt win | 0.8% | 41.0% | 4.2% | 0.240 | EGY wins 4-1: 0/27; AUS losses 1-4: 1/12 |
| 16 | 3-0 | Australia win | 1.6% | 28.8% | 8.3% | 0.220 | AUS wins 3-0: 0/29; EGY losses 0-3: 1/6 |
Correction to the old display.
The previous compact orbital was only the five highest Poisson cells. That is mathematically consistent, but analytically incomplete. The branch-aware table is the better Turtle surface for deciding a 3-5 score cloud.
Threat board
Probabilities normalized to 0-1
Rows marked as probability are literal model likelihoods. Coverage and continuity values are inputs, not betting probabilities.
Scoring threat
Australia score 1+
59.5%
Chance of at least one Australia goal.
Egypt score 1+
68.0%
Chance of at least one Egypt goal.
Australia score 2+
22.9%
Two-goal Australia branch.
Egypt score 2+
31.6%
Two-goal Egypt branch.
Result map
Australia regulation win
28.8%
Possible, not model mode.
Regulation draw
30.1%
Large live branch.
Egypt regulation win
41.0%
Highest result branch.
Goal-total map
BTTS yes
40.5%
Both teams score branch.
Over 1.5
60.6%
Two or more total goals.
Over 2.5
33.5%
Three or more total goals.
Over 3.5
15.1%
Four-goal tail branch.
Data integrity
What Turtle can see
Missing features are summarized as uncertainty instead of being repeated across every row. Coverage near zero means the feature is excluded from the score model.
100.0%
Result ledger
100/100 usable. Use directly in last-50 GF/GA, BTTS, over/under base rates.
6.0%
Lineup overlap
6/100 usable. Use only in recent lineup-weighted component; older rows rescore base-rate only.
6.0%
Report anchors
6/100 usable. Source links exist for World Cup rows, but stats are not extracted into the model yet.
0.0%
Shots/corners parsed
0/100 usable. Exclude from lambda model; count as uncertainty until extracted.
0.0%
EA FC ratings
0/2 usable. Exclude from model until verified team rating source is loaded.
Last-50 tendency
Team-level ledger summary
| Team | W-D-L | GF | GA | GF/M | GA/M | Scored | Conceded | Clean sheets | BTTS | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 29-9-12 | 83 | 38 | 1.660 | 0.760 | 39/50 (78%) | 25/50 (50%) | 25/50 (50%) | 18/50 (36%) | 20/50 (40%) | 12/50 (24%) |
| Egypt | 27-17-6 | 82 | 39 | 1.640 | 0.780 | 43/50 (86%) | 26/50 (52%) | 24/50 (48%) | 23/50 (46%) | 21/50 (42%) | 12/50 (24%) |
Pregame gates
Model boundaries before the score cloud
Strength
AUS 27 / EGY 34
Current team-page FIFA ranks are close enough that neither clean-sheet branch can be dismissed.
Egypt availability
Salah fit
Guardian reports Mohamed Salah fit, with starting status still tactical.
Australia availability
Width discounted
Australia are reported without Mat Leckie and Jacob Italiano.
Lineup proof
6 weighted rows
World Cup group rows have tactical-lineup evidence; older rows stay base-rate only.
Data room
Reviewable ledgers and inputs
These are the analysis tables behind the model. The primary story stays mathematical; the raw rows rescore available for proofing.
Australia probable XVI Starting XI plus five key substitutes used for overlap logic. CSV
| Slot | Role | Player | Pos | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | starter | Patrick Beach | GK | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 2 | starter | Alessandro Circati | CB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 3 | starter | Harry Souttar | CB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 4 | starter | Lucas Herrington | CB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 5 | starter | Jordan Bos | WB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 6 | starter | Aiden O'Neill | CM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 7 | starter | Jackson Irvine | CM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 8 | starter | Aziz Behich | WB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 9 | starter | Cristian Volpato | AM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 10 | starter | Connor Metcalfe | AM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 11 | starter | Nestory Irankunda | FW | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 12 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Ajdin Hrustic | MF | medium | Turtle extension from latest group lineup |
| 13 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Paul Okon-Engstler | MF | medium | Turtle extension from latest group lineup |
| 14 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Tete Yengi | FW | medium | Turtle extension from latest group lineup |
| 15 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Jason Geria | DF | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
| 16 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Nishan Velupillay | FW | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
Egypt probable XVI Starting XI plus five key substitutes used for overlap logic. CSV
| Slot | Role | Player | Pos | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | starter | Mostafa Shobeir | GK | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 2 | starter | Mohamed Hany | RB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 3 | starter | Ramy Rabia | CB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 4 | starter | Mohamed Abdelmonem | CB | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 5 | starter | Ahmed Fatouh | LB | low | The Sun predicted XI, low confidence due injury note |
| 6 | starter | Marwan Attia | CM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 7 | starter | Hamdy Fathy | CM | low | Mapped from preview midfield slot; fitness note lowers confidence |
| 8 | starter | Emam Ashour | CM/AM | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 9 | starter | Trezeguet | LW | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 10 | starter | Omar Marmoush | CF | medium | The Sun predicted XI |
| 11 | starter | Mohamed Salah | RW | low | The Sun predicted XI; Guardian says fit but start uncertain |
| 12 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Zizo | FW | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
| 13 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Hamza Abdelkarim | FW | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
| 14 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Yasser Ibrahim | DF | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
| 15 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Mostafa Ziko | FW | medium | Turtle extension from group usage |
| 16 | substitute_used_or_key_sub | Mahmoud Saber | MF | medium | Turtle extension from Iran match role |
Simulation inputs Shape, corner pressure, shot slots, and excluded inputs.
| Input | Australia | Egypt | Status | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted shape | 3-4-2-1 | 4-3-3 | secondary preview, not official XI | fixed-lineup baseline until official teamsheet |
| Group-stage corner average | 4.0 per match | 6.0 per match | The Sun/Betway preview, secondary | corner model input only |
| Projected total corners | 10.00 combined | 10.00 combined | The Sun/Betway preview, secondary | watchlist for corners route, not score-orbital core |
| Player shot pressure | Queued | Marmoush 3.86 shots/90 | The Sun preview, secondary | player-level attacking pressure feature |
| Row-level shots/corners | PDF extraction queued | PDF extraction queued | FIFA report PDFs are linked per row | future simulation feature |
| EA FC attack/mid/def | Awaiting verified source | Awaiting verified source | excluded | do not consume yet |
Australia current squad ranked by caps Seniority proxy, not a lineup guarantee. Combined squad CSV
| Rank | No. | Pos | Player | Caps | Goals | Club |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GK | Mathew Ryan | 104 | 0 | Levante |
| 2 | 16 | DF | Aziz Behich | 86 | 3 | Melbourne City |
| 3 | 22 | MF | Jackson Irvine | 85 | 14 | FC St. Pauli |
| 4 | 7 | FW | Mathew Leckie | 81 | 14 | Melbourne City |
| 5 | 2 | DF | Miloš Degenek | 57 | 1 | APOEL |
| 6 | 19 | DF | Harry Souttar | 41 | 11 | Leicester City |
| 7 | 8 | MF | Connor Metcalfe | 39 | 2 | FC St. Pauli |
| 8 | 11 | FW | Awer Mabil | 38 | 10 | Castellón |
| 9 | 10 | MF | Ajdin Hrustić | 38 | 4 | Heracles Almelo |
| 10 | 13 | MF | Aiden O'Neill | 34 | 0 | New York City |
| 11 | 5 | DF | Jordan Bos | 30 | 4 | Feyenoord |
| 12 | 21 | DF | Cameron Burgess | 29 | 0 | Swansea City |
| 13 | 17 | FW | Nestory Irankunda | 18 | 6 | Watford |
| 14 | 3 | DF | Alessandro Circati | 16 | 1 | Parma |
| 15 | 6 | DF | Jason Geria | 16 | 0 | Albirex Niigata |
| 16 | 9 | FW | Mohamed Touré | 12 | 2 | Norwich City |
| 17 | 23 | FW | Nishan Velupillay | 9 | 3 | Melbourne Victory |
| 18 | 24 | MF | Paul Okon-Engstler | 9 | 0 | Sydney FC |
| 19 | 4 | DF | Jacob Italiano | 7 | 0 | Grazer AK |
| 20 | 15 | DF | Kai Trewin | 6 | 0 | New York City |
| 21 | 25 | DF | Lucas Herrington | 5 | 0 | Colorado Rapids |
| 22 | 18 | GK | Patrick Beach | 5 | 0 | Melbourne City |
| 23 | 14 | MF | Cammy Devlin | 5 | 0 | Heart of Midlothian |
| 24 | 12 | GK | Paul Izzo | 4 | 0 | Randers |
| 25 | 20 | FW | Cristian Volpato | 3 | 0 | Sassuolo |
| 26 | 26 | FW | Tete Yengi | 3 | 1 | Machida Zelvia |
Egypt current squad ranked by caps Seniority proxy, not a lineup guarantee. Combined squad CSV
| Rank | No. | Pos | Player | Caps | Goals | Club |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FW | Mohamed Salah | 119 | 68 | Unattached |
| 2 | 7 | FW | Trézéguet | 98 | 24 | Al Ahly |
| 3 | 1 | GK | Mohamed El Shenawy | 76 | 0 | Al Ahly |
| 4 | 25 | FW | Zizo | 66 | 5 | Al Ahly |
| 5 | 14 | MF | Hamdy Fathy | 65 | 3 | Al-Wakrah |
| 6 | 22 | FW | Omar Marmoush | 53 | 11 | Manchester City |
| 7 | 5 | DF | Ramy Rabia | 47 | 5 | Al Ain |
| 8 | 3 | DF | Mohamed Hany | 45 | 0 | Al Ahly |
| 9 | 13 | DF | Ahmed Fatouh | 42 | 1 | Zamalek |
| 10 | 6 | DF | Mohamed Abdelmonem | 38 | 3 | Nice |
| 11 | 19 | MF | Marwan Attia | 37 | 1 | Al Ahly |
| 12 | 8 | MF | Emam Ashour | 32 | 1 | Al Ahly |
| 13 | 17 | MF | Mohanad Lasheen | 26 | 0 | Pyramids |
| 14 | 20 | FW | Ibrahim Adel | 25 | 3 | Nordsjælland |
| 15 | 2 | DF | Yasser Ibrahim | 20 | 1 | Al Ahly |
| 16 | 21 | MF | Mahmoud Saber | 16 | 2 | ZED |
| 17 | 4 | DF | Hossam Abdelmaguid | 14 | 0 | Zamalek |
| 18 | 23 | GK | Mostafa Shobeir | 12 | 0 | Al Ahly |
| 19 | 18 | MF | Nabil Emad | 12 | 0 | Al-Najma |
| 20 | 15 | DF | Karim Hafez | 10 | 0 | Pyramids |
| 21 | 9 | FW | Hamza Abdelkarim | 5 | 0 | Barcelona B |
| 22 | 11 | MF | Mostafa Ziko | 5 | 3 | Pyramids |
| 23 | 12 | FW | Haissem Hassan | 4 | 0 | Oviedo |
| 24 | 24 | DF | Tarek Alaa | 3 | 0 | ZED |
| 25 | 16 | GK | El Mahdy Soliman | 0 | 0 | Zamalek |
| 26 | 26 | GK | Mohamed Alaa | 0 | 0 | El Gouna |
Australia recent rows Latest visible ledger rows before the full table.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition | H/A/N | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Paraguay | 0-0 | D | 2026 World Cup GS | neutral | Levi's Stadium |
| 2026-06-19 | United States | 0-2 | L | 2026 World Cup GS | away | Lumen Field |
| 2026-06-13 | Turkey | 2-0 | W | 2026 World Cup GS | neutral | BC Place |
| 2026-06-06 | Switzerland | 1-1 | D | Friendly | neutral | Snapdragon Stadium |
| 2026-05-30 | Mexico | 0-1 | L | Friendly | neutral | Rose Bowl |
| 2026-03-31 | Curaçao | 5-1 | W | 2026 FIFA Series | home | AAMI Park |
| 2026-03-27 | Cameroon | 1-0 | W | 2026 FIFA Series | home | Accor Stadium |
| 2025-11-18 | Colombia | 0-3 | L | Friendly | neutral | Citi Field |
Egypt recent rows Latest visible ledger rows before the full table.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition | H/A/N | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Iran | 1-1 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | neutral | Lumen Field |
| 2026-06-21 | New Zealand | 3-1 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | neutral | BC Place |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium | 1-1 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | neutral | Lumen Field |
| 2026-06-06 | Brazil | 1-2 | L | Friendly | neutral | Huntington Bank Field |
| 2026-05-28 | Russia | 1-0 | W | Friendly | home | Cairo International Stadium |
| 2026-03-31 | Spain | 0-0 | D | Friendly | away | RCDE Stadium |
| 2026-03-27 | Saudi Arabia | 4-0 | W | Friendly | away | King Abdullah Sports City |
| 2026-01-17 | Nigeria | 0-0 | D | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Third place play-off | neutral | Mohammed V Stadium |
Australia full last-50 ledger Every row Turtle is using; rows with lineup proof are marked base plus lineup. CSV
| Row | Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition | GF | GA | Scored | Conceded | Clean sheet | BTTS | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | XVI weight | Model use | Scorers | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUS-001 | 2022-06-01 | neutral | Jordan | 2-1 | W | International Friendly | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Wright 40' Mabil 68' | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-002 | 2022-06-07 | neutral | United Arab Emirates | 2-1 | W | 2022 World Cup qualification | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Irvine 53' Hrustic 84' | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium | |
| AUS-003 | 2022-06-13 | neutral | Peru | 0-0 | D | 2022 World Cup qualification | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium | ||
| AUS-004 | 2022-09-22 | home | New Zealand | 1-0 | W | International Friendly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Mabil 35' | Suncorp Stadium | |
| AUS-005 | 2022-09-25 | away | New Zealand | 2-0 | W | International Friendly | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Duke 54' Cummings 80' ( pen. ) | Eden Park | |
| AUS-006 | 2022-11-22 | neutral | France | 1-4 | L | 2022 FIFA World Cup Group D | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Goodwin 9' | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-007 | 2022-11-26 | neutral | Tunisia | 1-0 | W | 2022 FIFA World Cup Group D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Duke 23' | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-008 | 2022-11-30 | neutral | Denmark | 1-0 | W | 2022 FIFA World Cup Group D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Leckie 60' | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-009 | 2022-12-03 | neutral | Argentina | 1-2 | L | 2022 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Fernández 77' ( o.g. ) | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium | |
| AUS-010 | 2023-03-24 | home | Ecuador | 3-1 | W | International Friendly | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Irvine 12' Mabil 32' Kuol 84' | Western Sydney Stadium | |
| AUS-011 | 2023-03-28 | home | Ecuador | 1-2 | L | International Friendly | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Borrello 16' | Docklands Stadium | |
| AUS-012 | 2023-06-15 | neutral | Argentina | 0-2 | L | International Friendly | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Workers' Stadium | ||
| AUS-013 | 2023-09-09 | neutral | Mexico | 2-2 | D | International Friendly | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Souttar 16' Boyle 63' ( pen. ) | AT&T Stadium | |
| AUS-014 | 2023-10-13 | neutral | England | 0-1 | L | International Friendly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Wembley Stadium | ||
| AUS-015 | 2023-10-18 | neutral | New Zealand | 2-0 | W | 2023 Soccer Ashes series | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Souttar 13' Irvine 76' | Gtech Community Stadium | |
| AUS-016 | 2023-11-16 | home | Bangladesh | 7-0 | W | 2026 WCQ / 2027 ACQ | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Souttar 4' Borrello 20' Duke 37' , 40' Maclaren 48' , 70' , 84' | Melbourne Rectangular Stadium | |
| AUS-017 | 2023-11-21 | neutral | Palestine | 1-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Souttar 18' | Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium | |
| AUS-018 | 2024-01-06 | neutral | Bahrain | 2-0 | W | Friendly | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Binaddi 36' ( o.g. ) Duke 61' | Baniyas Stadium | |
| AUS-019 | 2024-01-13 | neutral | India | 2-0 | W | 2023 AFC Asian Cup | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Irvine 50' Bos 73' | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium | |
| AUS-020 | 2024-01-18 | neutral | Syria | 1-0 | W | 2023 AFC Asian Cup | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Irvine 59' | Jassim bin Hamad Stadium | |
| AUS-021 | 2024-01-23 | neutral | Uzbekistan | 1-1 | D | 2023 AFC Asian Cup | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Boyle 45+1' ( pen. ) | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-022 | 2024-01-28 | neutral | Indonesia | 4-0 | W | 2023 AFC Asian Cup round of 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Baggott 12' ( o.g. ) Boyle 45' Goodwin 89' Souttar 90+1' | Jassim bin Hamad Stadium | |
| AUS-023 | 2024-02-02 | neutral | South Korea | 1-2 | L | 2023 AFC Asian Cup quarter-finals | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Goodwin 42' | Al Janoub Stadium | |
| AUS-024 | 2024-03-21 | home | Lebanon | 2-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Baccus 5' Rowles 54' | Western Sydney Stadium | |
| AUS-025 | 2024-03-26 | home | Lebanon | 5-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Yengi 2' Jradi 47' ( o.g. ) Goodwin 48' , 81' Iredale 68' | Canberra Stadium | |
| AUS-026 | 2024-06-06 | away | Bangladesh | 2-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Hrustic 29' Yengi 62' | Bashundhara Kings Arena | |
| AUS-027 | 2024-06-11 | home | Palestine | 5-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Yengi 5' ( pen. ) 41' Taggart 26' Boyle 53' Irankunda 87' ( pen. ) | Perth Rectangular Stadium | |
| AUS-028 | 2024-09-05 | home | Bahrain | 0-1 | L | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Robina Stadium | ||
| AUS-029 | 2024-09-10 | away | Indonesia | 0-0 | D | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Gelora Bung Karno Stadium | ||
| AUS-030 | 2024-10-10 | home | China | 3-1 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Miller 45+2' Goodwin 53' Velupillay 90+2' | Adelaide Oval | |
| AUS-031 | 2024-10-15 | away | Japan | 1-1 | D | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Taniguchi 58' ( o.g. ) | Saitama Stadium 2002 | |
| AUS-032 | 2024-11-14 | home | Saudi Arabia | 0-0 | D | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Melbourne Rectangular Stadium | ||
| AUS-033 | 2024-11-19 | away | Bahrain | 2-2 | D | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Yengi 1' , 90+6' | Bahrain National Stadium | |
| AUS-034 | 2025-03-20 | home | Indonesia | 5-1 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Boyle 18' ( pen. ) Velupillay 20' Irvine 34' , 90' Miller 61' | Sydney Football Stadium | |
| AUS-035 | 2025-03-25 | away | China | 2-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Irvine 16' Velupillay 29' | Hangzhou Olympic Sports Center Stadium | |
| AUS-036 | 2025-06-05 | home | Japan | 1-0 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Behich 90' | Perth Stadium | |
| AUS-037 | 2025-06-10 | away | Saudi Arabia | 2-1 | W | 2026 World Cup Qualifiers Round 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Metcalfe 42' Duke 48' | King Abdullah Sports City | |
| AUS-038 | 2025-09-05 | home | New Zealand | 1-0 | W | Soccer Ashes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Balard 87' | GIO Stadium | |
| AUS-039 | 2025-09-09 | away | New Zealand | 3-1 | W | Soccer Ashes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Toure 35' , 60' Irankunda 54' | Go Media Stadium | |
| AUS-040 | 2025-10-10 | away | Canada | 1-0 | W | Friendly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Irankunda 71' | Saputo Stadium | |
| AUS-041 | 2025-10-14 | away | United States | 1-2 | L | Friendly | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Bos 19' | Dick's Sporting Goods Park | |
| AUS-042 | 2025-11-14 | neutral | Venezuela | 0-1 | L | Friendly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Shell Energy Stadium | ||
| AUS-043 | 2025-11-18 | neutral | Colombia | 0-3 | L | Friendly | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Citi Field | ||
| AUS-044 | 2026-03-27 | home | Cameroon | 1-0 | W | 2026 FIFA Series | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Bos 84' | Accor Stadium | |
| AUS-045 | 2026-03-31 | home | Curaçao | 5-1 | W | 2026 FIFA Series | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Mabil 23' Circati 67' Bos 71' Irankunda 80' , 84' | AAMI Park | |
| AUS-046 | 2026-05-30 | neutral | Mexico | 0-1 | L | Friendly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Rose Bowl | ||
| AUS-047 | 2026-06-06 | neutral | Switzerland | 1-1 | D | Friendly | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Yengi 56' | Snapdragon Stadium | |
| AUS-048 | 2026-06-13 | neutral | Turkey | 2-0 | W | 2026 World Cup GS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13/16 (81%) | base + lineup | Irankunda 27' Metcalfe 75' | BC Place |
| AUS-049 | 2026-06-19 | away | United States | 0-2 | L | 2026 World Cup GS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12/16 (75%) | base + lineup | Lumen Field | |
| AUS-050 | 2026-06-25 | neutral | Paraguay | 0-0 | D | 2026 World Cup GS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14/16 (88%) | base + lineup | Levi's Stadium |
Egypt full last-50 ledger Every row Turtle is using; rows with lineup proof are marked base plus lineup. CSV
| Row | Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition | GF | GA | Scored | Conceded | Clean sheet | BTTS | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | XVI weight | Model use | Scorers | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EGY-001 | 2023-03-28 | away | Malawi | 4-0 | W | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Hamed 4' Marmoush 16' Salah 20' Zizo 49' | Bingu National Stadium | |
| EGY-002 | 2023-06-14 | neutral | Guinea | 2-1 | W | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 42' M. Mohamed 79' | Marrakesh Stadium | |
| EGY-003 | 2023-06-18 | home | South Sudan | 3-0 | W | Friendly | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | M. Fathi 19' Kahraba 45' Trézéguet 72' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-004 | 2023-09-08 | home | Ethiopia | 1-0 | W | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | M. Fathi 37' | 30 June Stadium | |
| EGY-005 | 2023-09-12 | home | Tunisia | 1-3 | L | Friendly | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Kamal 34' | 30 June Stadium | |
| EGY-006 | 2023-10-12 | neutral | Zambia | 1-0 | W | Friendly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | H. Fathy 90+4' | Hazza bin Zayed Stadium | |
| EGY-007 | 2023-10-16 | neutral | Algeria | 1-1 | D | Friendly | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | H. Fathy 62' | Hazza bin Zayed Stadium | |
| EGY-008 | 2023-11-16 | home | Djibouti | 6-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Salah 17' , 22' ( pen. ) , 48' , 69' M. Mohamed 73' Trézéguet 89' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-009 | 2023-11-19 | neutral | Sierra Leone | 2-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 18' , 62' | Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex | |
| EGY-010 | 2024-01-07 | home | Tanzania | 2-0 | W | Friendly | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 32' Manula 73' ( o.g. ) | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-011 | 2024-01-14 | neutral | Mozambique | 2-2 | D | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | M. Mohamed 2' Salah 90+7' ( pen. ) | Felix Houphouet Boigny Stadium | |
| EGY-012 | 2024-01-18 | neutral | Ghana | 2-2 | D | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Marmoush 69' M. Mohamed 74' | Felix Houphouet Boigny Stadium | |
| EGY-013 | 2024-01-22 | neutral | Cape Verde | 2-2 | D | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Trézéguet 50' M. Mohamed 90+3' | Felix Houphouet Boigny Stadium | |
| EGY-014 | 2024-01-28 | neutral | DR Congo | 1-1 | D | 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | M. Mohamed 45+1' ( pen. ) | Laurent Pokou Stadium | |
| EGY-015 | 2024-03-22 | home | New Zealand | 1-0 | W | 2024 ACUD Cup Semi-finals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | M. Mohamed 29' ( pen. ) | New Administrative Capital Stadium | |
| EGY-016 | 2024-03-26 | home | Croatia | 2-4 | L | 2024 ACUD Cup Final | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Rabia 6' Abdelmonem 90+4' | New Administrative Capital Stadium | |
| EGY-017 | 2024-06-06 | home | Burkina Faso | 2-1 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 3' , 8' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-018 | 2024-06-10 | away | Guinea-Bissau | 1-1 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Salah 70' | Estádio 24 de Setembro | |
| EGY-019 | 2024-09-06 | home | Cape Verde | 3-0 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Rabia 23' Marmoush 45+1' Adel 70' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-020 | 2024-09-10 | away | Botswana | 4-0 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Trézéguet 5' , 29' Salah 56' M. Fathi 90+4' | Obed Itani Chilume Stadium | |
| EGY-021 | 2024-10-11 | home | Mauritania | 2-0 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 69' Salah 79' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-022 | 2024-10-15 | away | Mauritania | 1-0 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Adel 85' | Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya | |
| EGY-023 | 2024-11-15 | away | Cape Verde | 1-1 | D | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | T. Mohamed 31' | Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde | |
| EGY-024 | 2024-11-19 | home | Botswana | 1-1 | D | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualification | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Trézéguet 15' | 30 June Stadium | |
| EGY-025 | 2025-03-21 | neutral | Ethiopia | 2-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Salah 31' Zizo 40' | Larbi Zaouli Stadium | |
| EGY-026 | 2025-03-25 | home | Sierra Leone | 1-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Zizo 45+2' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-027 | 2025-09-05 | home | Ethiopia | 2-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Salah 41' ( pen. ) Marmoush 45+2' ( pen. ) | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-028 | 2025-09-09 | away | Burkina Faso | 0-0 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Stade du 4 Août | ||
| EGY-029 | 2025-10-08 | neutral | Djibouti | 3-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Adel 8' Salah 14' , 84' | Larbi Zaouli Stadium | |
| EGY-030 | 2025-10-12 | home | Guinea-Bissau | 1-0 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Hamdy 10' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-031 | 2025-11-14 | neutral | Uzbekistan | 0-2 | L | 2025 Al Ain International Cup Semi-finals | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Hazza bin Zayed Stadium | ||
| EGY-032 | 2025-11-17 | neutral | Cape Verde | 1-1 | D | 2025 Al Ain International Cup Third place play-off | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Marmoush 57' | Hazza bin Zayed Stadium | |
| EGY-033 | 2025-12-02 | neutral | Kuwait | 1-1 | D | 2025 FIFA Arab Cup Group C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Afsha 88' ( pen. ) | Lusail Stadium | |
| EGY-034 | 2025-12-06 | neutral | United Arab Emirates | 1-1 | D | 2025 FIFA Arab Cup Group C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Hamdy 85' | Lusail Stadium | |
| EGY-035 | 2025-12-09 | neutral | Jordan | 0-3 | L | 2025 FIFA Arab Cup Group C | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Al Bayt Stadium | ||
| EGY-036 | 2025-12-16 | home | Nigeria | 2-1 | W | Friendly | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Saber 28' M. Mohamed 53' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-037 | 2025-12-22 | neutral | Zimbabwe | 2-1 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Marmoush 64' Salah 90+1' | Adrar Stadium | |
| EGY-038 | 2025-12-26 | neutral | South Africa | 1-0 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Salah 45' ( pen. ) | Adrar Stadium | |
| EGY-039 | 2025-12-29 | neutral | Angola | 0-0 | D | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Group B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Adrar Stadium | ||
| EGY-040 | 2026-01-05 | neutral | Benin | 3-1 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Attia 69' Ibrahim 97' Salah 120+4' | Adrar Stadium | |
| EGY-041 | 2026-01-10 | neutral | Ivory Coast | 3-2 | W | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Quarter-finals | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Marmoush 4' Rabia 32' Salah 52' | Adrar Stadium | |
| EGY-042 | 2026-01-14 | neutral | Senegal | 0-1 | L | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Semi-finals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Tangier Grand Stadium | ||
| EGY-043 | 2026-01-17 | neutral | Nigeria | 0-0 | D | 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Third place play-off | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Mohammed V Stadium | ||
| EGY-044 | 2026-03-27 | away | Saudi Arabia | 4-0 | W | Friendly | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | base rate | Issa 4' Trézéguet 16' Zizo 44' Marmoush 56' | King Abdullah Sports City | |
| EGY-045 | 2026-03-31 | away | Spain | 0-0 | D | Friendly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | RCDE Stadium | ||
| EGY-046 | 2026-05-28 | home | Russia | 1-0 | W | Friendly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | base rate | Ziko 65' | Cairo International Stadium | |
| EGY-047 | 2026-06-06 | neutral | Brazil | 1-2 | L | Friendly | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | base rate | Ziko 11' | Huntington Bank Field | |
| EGY-048 | 2026-06-15 | neutral | Belgium | 1-1 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13/16 (81%) | base + lineup | Ashour 19' | Lumen Field |
| EGY-049 | 2026-06-21 | neutral | New Zealand | 3-1 | W | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15/16 (94%) | base + lineup | Ziko 58' Salah 67' Trézéguet 82' | BC Place |
| EGY-050 | 2026-06-26 | neutral | Iran | 1-1 | D | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15/16 (94%) | base + lineup | Lumen Field |
Derived markets
Shape probabilities from the score grid
| Output | Model probability | Turtle read |
|---|---|---|
| Australia win in regulation | 28.8% | possible but not the mode |
| Draw in regulation | 30.1% | large branch; 0-0 and 1-1 both survive |
| Egypt win in regulation | 41.0% | model favorite |
| BTTS yes | 40.5% | not automatic; below coinflip |
| Over 1.5 | 60.6% | viable |
| Over 2.5 | 33.5% | thin, not core |
| Over 3.5 | 15.1% | tail only |
| 80% wide-orbit mass | 8 scorelines | compact cloud is not 80% |
| 90% wide-orbit mass | 12 scorelines | wide cloud required |
Source stack for this page: