four-score public prediction. Index 0.273563; rank-spread prior 0.246954.
Project Turtle / postgame analysis
Argentina 3-2 Egypt: Turtle saw Egypt scoring, but missed the second goal.
The locked pregame C4 was 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1. The final score landed outside it. This page keeps the original theorem intact and records the method failure plainly.
Locked C4
Argentina-Egypt C4: 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1
four-score public prediction. Index 0.110961; rank-spread prior 0.167858.
four-score public prediction. Index 0.129894; rank-spread prior 0.136358.
four-score public prediction. Index 0.098596; rank-spread prior 0.092566.
All four scores are public predictions. Node success means the regulation score lands inside this C4. No market price entered the cloud.
Postgame analysis
C4 miss: the score cloud did not carry the second Egypt goal.
Final score source: Guardian live report. The locked C4 was 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1, so the exact-score record is a miss.
2-1 and 1-1 kept Egypt on the board. Over 1.5 support aligned with every locked score and settled correctly.
The model admitted one Egypt goal but did not force 2-2 or 3-2 through a second-underdog-goal comparison.
When BTTS survives above 0.40, Turtle must explicitly test the high-draw and favorite-win stress nodes before locking two clean-sheet scores.
Rank-spread prior
Argentina #1 vs Egypt #34 chooses the family before the exact node.
| sample | rows | stronger_win_rate | draw_rate | weaker_win_rate | stronger_clean_sheet_rate | btts_rate | over_2_5_rate | over_3_5_rate | stronger_by_1_rate | stronger_by_2plus_rate | top_score_modes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target_rank_realm_top5_vs_21_35_gap_plusminus_8 | 13 | 84.6 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 69.2 | 30.8 | 38.5 | 7.7 | 23.1 | 61.5 | 2-0 (5); 2-1 (2); 3-0 (2); 1-1 (1); 1-0 (1); 0-0 (1); 4-1 (1) |
| broad_rank_realm_top10_vs_21_50_gap_plusminus_15 | 128 | 65.6 | 23.4 | 10.9 | 50.8 | 43.8 | 48.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 42.2 | 1-0 (19); 1-1 (18); 3-0 (14); 2-0 (14); 2-1 (11); 0-0 (8); 1-2 (7); 4-0 (6) |
| worldcup_only_from_broad_realm | 22 | 81.8 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 50.0 | 45.5 | 63.6 | 22.7 | 27.3 | 54.5 | 3-0 (5); 1-0 (3); 2-1 (3); 4-1 (2); 1-1 (2); 2-0 (2); 0-1 (1); 5-1 (1) |
Model summary
Count kernel plus family and contradiction rules.
| metric | value | formula_or_rule |
|---|---|---|
| fixture_status | pregame_valid | lock_time=2026-07-07T11:38:22.426292-04:00 < kickoff=2026-07-07T12:00:00-04:00 |
| lambda_ARG | 1.6719 | ((A_ARG + D_EGY)/2)*knockout_caution*favorite_pressure |
| lambda_EGY | 0.8098 | ((A_EGY + D_ARG)/2)*knockout_caution*underdog_block |
| A_ARG | 2.3695 | 0.18*GF50 + 0.20*GF10 + 0.24*GFWC + 0.38*realm_GF |
| D_ARG | 0.4757 | 0.18*GA50 + 0.20*GA10 + 0.24*GAWC + 0.38*realm_GA |
| A_EGY | 1.4860 | 0.18*GF50 + 0.20*GF10 + 0.24*GFWC + 0.38*realm_GF |
| D_EGY | 0.8556 | 0.18*GA50 + 0.20*GA10 + 0.24*GAWC + 0.38*realm_GA |
| rank_spread_target_ARG_win | 0.8460 | target top-5 vs rank-21-35 rank-spread sample |
| rank_spread_target_ARG_clean_sheet | 0.6920 | target rank-spread stronger clean-sheet rate |
| rank_spread_target_ARG_by_2plus | 0.6150 | target rank-spread stronger by 2+ rate |
| P_ARG_win | 0.5787 | sum P(a,e), a>e |
| P_draw | 0.2415 | sum P(a,e), a=e |
| P_EGY_win | 0.1798 | sum P(a,e), e>a |
| P_BTTS | 0.4507 | sum P(a,e), a>0 and e>0 |
| P_ARG_clean | 0.3613 | sum P(a,0), a>0 |
| P_over_3_5 | 0.2382 | sum P(a,e), a+e>=4 |
| game_type | G2 favorite clean-sheet cushion with G3 BTTS branch retained | rank spread favors ARG by cushion and clean sheet; Egypt scoring branch survives only as one node |
| human_signal_before_lock | none_named_for_this_match_in_current_turn | Human Signal Preservation gate recorded |
| clean_sheet_override | active_for_Argentina_family | target rank-spread clean-sheet rate 0.692 forces at least one ARG clean-sheet score |
Opponent-threshold realm
Flat last-50 is not allowed to decide the card.
| team | target_opponent | epsilon_used | realm_rows | readiness | GF50 | GA50 | GFWC | GAWC | realm_GF_shrunk | realm_GA_shrunk | realm_scored_rate | realm_failed_to_score_rate | realm_clean_sheet_rate | realm_BTTS_rate | realm_over_3_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Egypt | 0.75 | 23 | strong | 2.220 | 0.500 | 2.750 | 0.750 | 1.815 | 0.331 | 0.958 | 0.042 | 0.754 | 0.205 | 0.058 |
| Egypt | Argentina | 1.25 | 3 | weak | 1.592 | 0.796 | 1.667 | 1.000 | 1.367 | 0.822 | 0.792 | 0.208 | 0.463 | 0.489 | 0.176 |
Recursive contradiction audit
Scores survive attacks, not vibes.
| audit | branch | candidate_scores | supporting_fact | strongest_opposing_fact | numeric_test | decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| favorite_clean_sheet | Argentina clean sheet | 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 | rank-spread stronger clean sheet=0.692; clean-thread ARG clean=0.361 | Egypt realm scored=0.792; Salah context remains live | rank clean 0.692 > BTTS rank 0.308 | passes; C4 must include Argentina clean-sheet scores |
| underdog_clean_sheet | Egypt clean sheet | 0-1, 0-2 | Egypt clean-thread mass=0.104 | Argentina realm scored=0.958; rank-spread ARG win=0.846 | ARG win 0.846 and ARG realm scored 0.958 defeat Egypt clean branch | excluded_by_result_thread |
| BTTS | both teams score | 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 1-1, 2-2 | Egypt realm scored=0.792; current tournament scoring can keep one branch live | target rank-spread BTTS=0.308 below clean-sheet=0.692 | BTTS 0.308 < ARG clean 0.692; only one BTTS node survives | partial; 2-1 survives, BTTS-heavy card rejected |
| low_draw | 0-0 or 1-1 | 0-0, 1-1 | target draw=0.154; broad rank modes include 1-1 | target stronger win=0.846 | 1-1 beats 0-0 because Argentina scoring gate attacks no-score harder than low draw | 1-1 kept as fourth normal C4 node; 0-0 excluded |
| favorite_by_one | Argentina by one | 1-0, 2-1 | spread arg_by_1=0.258 | rank-spread arg_by_2plus=0.615 > arg_by_1=0.231 | 2-1 survives as Egypt-scoring representative; 1-0 loses to 2-0 and 3-0 inside clean family | partial; 2-1 included, 1-0 excluded by index comparison |
| favorite_cushion | Argentina by 2+ | 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 | rank-spread ARG by 2+=0.615; target mode 2-0 | target over3.5=0.077 | 2-0 and 3-0 survive; 4-0/4-1 excluded because over3.5 is too low | passes for 2-0 and 3-0 only |
| upset_branch | Egypt win | 0-1, 1-2, 0-2 | Salah emotional index and underdog belief exist | target-rank weaker win raw=0.000; log floor=0.015; ARG win=0.846 | weaker win raw 0.000 is below disclosure threshold 0.08 | excluded_by_result_thread |
| over_3_5_tail | ruthless high-total | 4-0, 4-1, 5-1, 4-2 | World Cup broad over3.5=0.227 | target exact rank-spread over3.5=0.077 | target over3.5 0.077 < 0.15; no ruthless tail in C4 | excluded_by_total_thread |
S10 candidate table
Every candidate gets exactly one final status.
| score | poisson_probability | rank_spread_prior | turtle_index | result_branch | spread_branch | total_bucket | btts_clean_bucket | recursive_attack | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 0.116845 | 0.246954 | 0.273563 | ARG | arg_by_2plus | exactly2 | arg_clean | attacked_by_Salah_creative_threat; attacked_by_Egypt_realm_scoring; rescued_by_rank_spread_69pct_stronger_clean_sheet; rescued_by_target_rank_modal_score | MAIN |
| 1-0 | 0.139777 | 0.107620 | 0.203471 | ARG | arg_by_1 | u1_5 | arg_clean | attacked_by_Salah_creative_threat; attacked_by_Egypt_realm_scoring; rescued_by_rank_spread_69pct_stronger_clean_sheet | EXCLUDED_BY_INDEX_COMPARISON |
| 2-1 | 0.094618 | 0.136358 | 0.129894 | ARG | arg_by_1 | exactly3 | btts | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring | MAIN |
| 3-0 | 0.065117 | 0.167858 | 0.110961 | ARG | arg_by_2plus | exactly3 | arg_clean | attacked_by_Salah_creative_threat; attacked_by_Egypt_realm_scoring; rescued_by_rank_spread_69pct_stronger_clean_sheet; attacked_by_knockout_caution_and_target_o35_rare; rescued_by_worldcup_broad_3-0_mode | MAIN |
| 1-1 | 0.113188 | 0.092566 | 0.098596 | DRAW | draw_low | exactly2 | btts | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring; attacked_by_target_rank_ARG_win_84.6pct; rescued_by_knockout_draw_block_and_broad_1-1_mode | MAIN |
| 3-1 | 0.052730 | 0.021728 | 0.036088 | ARG | arg_by_2plus | o3_5 | btts | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring; attacked_by_target_rank_over35_7.7pct | EXCLUDED_BY_BTTS_CLEAN_SHEET_THREAD |
| 0-0 | 0.083605 | 0.051538 | 0.034507 | DRAW | draw_low | u1_5 | no_score | attacked_by_Salah_creative_threat; attacked_by_Egypt_realm_scoring; rescued_by_rank_spread_69pct_stronger_clean_sheet; attacked_by_target_rank_ARG_win_84.6pct; attacked_by_Argentina_scoring_and_rank_gap | EXCLUDED_BY_INDEX_COMPARISON |
| 1-2 | 0.045829 | 0.024536 | 0.016255 | EGY | egy_by_1 | exactly3 | btts | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring; attacked_by_target_rank_weaker_win_0pct | EXCLUDED_BY_BTTS_CLEAN_SHEET_THREAD |
| 0-1 | 0.067701 | 0.020306 | 0.015872 | EGY | egy_by_1 | u1_5 | egy_clean | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring; attacked_by_target_rank_weaker_win_0pct | EXCLUDED_BY_RESULT_THREAD |
| 2-2 | 0.038310 | 0.006956 | 0.007839 | DRAW | draw_high | o3_5 | btts | attacked_by_rank_spread_69pct_no_Egypt_goal; rescued_by_Egypt_WC_or_realm_scoring; attacked_by_target_rank_over35_7.7pct; attacked_by_target_rank_ARG_win_84.6pct | EXCLUDED_BY_BTTS_CLEAN_SHEET_THREAD |
Proof ledger
The theorem adds no new judgment.
D1Definition
Let G={0,...,7}x{0,...,7}. For s=(a,e), a is Argentina goals and e is Egypt goals.
D2Definition
P_count(s)=Pois(a;lambda_ARG)Pois(e;lambda_EGY). The final index adds result, spread, total, clean/BTTS, rank-mode prior, and recursive attack penalties.
D3Definition
S10 is the ten largest P_count cells in G, with lexicographic tie-break.
D4Definition
C4 is the four public exact-score predictions. All four are normal predictions, not a postgame containment rewrite.
F1Data
Rank-spread target realm gives ARG win=0.846, draw=0.154, EGY raw win=0.000; the 0.015 upset value is only a log-smoothing floor.
F2Data
Rank-spread target realm gives ARG clean sheet=0.692, BTTS=0.308, ARG by 2+=0.615, over3.5=0.077.
R1Rule
Clean-sheet override: if favorite clean-sheet family support exceeds BTTS support by at least 0.20, include at least one favorite clean-sheet score.
R2Rule
Cushion rule: if favorite by 2+ exceeds favorite by 1 and draw, include the best cushion score by index.
R3Rule
BTTS gate: a BTTS score survives only if it is the best Egypt-scoring representative and does not displace the modal clean-sheet family.
R4Rule
Draw/block rule: keep 1-1 only if it beats 0-0 after the no-score attack and if draw support remains nonzero.
R5Rule
Ruthless-tail rule: scores with total >=4 require target over3.5 >=0.15 or a stronger live-state/ruthless mechanism; otherwise they are excluded.
L+2-0Inclusion lemma
2-0 is disclosed by R1/R2: it is the modal rank-spread score, lies in ARG clean cushion, and has I=0.2736.
L+3-0Inclusion lemma
3-0 is disclosed by R2: it is the next clean cushion representative and beats 4-0 because target over3.5=0.077<0.15.
L+2-1Inclusion lemma
2-1 is disclosed by R3: it is the best Egypt-scoring representative while BTTS=0.308 remains live but weaker than ARG clean.
L+1-1Inclusion lemma
1-1 is disclosed by R4: it is the low-draw representative; 0-0 fails the Argentina scoring attack.
L-1-0Exclusion lemma
1-0 is excluded because it shares the clean-sheet family with 2-0 and loses the cushion/mode comparison.
L-0-0Exclusion lemma
0-0 is excluded because Argentina scoring and rank gap attack no-score more strongly than 1-1.
L-4-1Exclusion lemma
4-1 is excluded by R5 because target over3.5=0.077<0.15 despite appearing in the broad World Cup sample.
L-EGYExclusion lemma
Egypt upset scores are excluded because target-rank weaker raw win=0.000<0.08 while ARG win=0.846; the 0.015 floor prevents log-zero only and is not evidence for inclusion.
TTheorem
Under D1-D4, F1-F2, and R1-R5, the locked C4 is {2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1}. The theorem introduces no score outside the previous lemmas.
LOCKC4 = {2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1}Postgame audit cannot rewrite this set.
Support after lock
Analysis-only, separated from prediction.
| market | model_probability | analysis_status | protects_scores | hurts_scores | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 0.7088 | full_card_aligned_post_lock | 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 | none inside C4 | post-lock support discussed; settled hit in 3-2 final |
| Under 3.5 goals | 0.7618 | failed_support_candidate | 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1 | five-goal stress branch | missed because Turtle suppressed 2-2 and 3-2 too strongly |
| BTTS Yes | 0.4507 | partial_card_aligned_only | 2-1, 1-1 | 2-0, 3-0 | partial only because the core family is Argentina clean sheet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0.4513 | partial_card_aligned_only | 3-0, 2-1 | 2-0, 1-1 | not full-card support because 2-0 and 1-1 remain live |
Sources