What the package contains
100 schema-model-valid rows, 14 reconciled current-tournament regulation rows, a frozen strength snapshot, scope exceptions, and a recorded 0.75-to-1.25 realm search.
Canonical evidence page / Match 104
Spain vs Argentina, World Cup Final: the evidence package before any card.
This canonical page is the citation target for the active final. It exposes exactly what Turtle has admitted, what remains pending, and why no score nodes are public.
Current state
Research is live. Prediction is not.
This is a public evidence workbench for Spain vs Argentina. It is not a finished score card or a claim of certainty.
PublicationPRE_LOCK
C4NOT C4 LOCKED
Use boundaryNO MARKET GUIDANCE
Legal C4 nodes: 0. Published scores: none. The declared score scope, if a legal analysis is later possible, is regulation time only.
Fixture: PASS
Spain realm: PASS
Argentina realm: BLOCKED_REALM_N_EFF
Final XI: PENDING
Verified fixture map
Spain Argentina
FIFA World Cup 2026 Final
- Kickoff
- 2026-07-19 15:00:00-04:002026-07-19T19:00:00Z
- Venue
- New York New Jersey StadiumEast Rutherford, New Jersey, United States
- Score scope
- Regulation time onlyExtra time and shootouts are contextual, not model scores.
- Working cutoff
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00ZImmutable C4 freeze: 2026-07-19T18:15:00Z
Admitted evidence
The data factory distinguishes count from confidence.
These are descriptive regulation-time windows, not score probabilities. The public artifact bundle preserves source tier, scope, duplicate state, rating join, and model-valid field for every row.
| Team | Window | n | GF / match | GA / match | Clean sheets | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | last 50 admitted | 50 | 2.40 | 0.72 | 52.0% | 44.0% |
| Spain | last 10 admitted | 10 | 1.70 | 0.30 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Spain | world cup 2026 regulation | 9 | 1.89 | 0.33 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Argentina | last 50 admitted | 50 | 2.16 | 0.50 | 62.0% | 34.0% |
| Argentina | last 10 admitted | 10 | 2.50 | 0.60 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Argentina | world cup 2026 regulation | 9 | 2.22 | 0.67 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
What it does not pretend to contain
Final Argentina XI confirmation, final availability reconciliation, source-admitted player/tactical adjustments, a passed Argentina realm, a contradiction ledger outcome, or stability retention.
Opponent-strength readiness
The sparse realm is a blocker, not a footnote.
Comparable-opponent evidence uses a declared rating-distance kernel and effective sample size. Raw count alone cannot pass a realm.
| Team | Target strength | Chosen epsilon | Raw rows | n_eff | Readiness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | Argentina | 1.25 | 10 | 6.452 | PASS |
| Argentina | Spain | 1.25 | 5 | 3.074 | BLOCKED_REALM_N_EFF |
| Team | Epsilon | Raw rows | n_eff | Passes | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 0.75 | 4 | 3.356 | no | insufficient rows or effective sample size |
| Spain | 1.25 | 10 | 6.452 | yes | first epsilon meeting both thresholds |
| Argentina | 0.75 | 1 | 1.000 | no | insufficient rows or effective sample size |
| Argentina | 1.25 | 5 | 3.074 | no | insufficient rows or effective sample size |
Lineup layer
Source-backed continuity, not invented starters.
The current bundle publishes continuity and availability status in machine-readable form. It makes no player-impact or tactical weighting claim until final availability is reconciled.
Thread & proof boundary
All required artifacts are public. Their state is honestly blocked.
Result, margin, total, BTTS/clean-sheet, score-candidate, contradiction, and stability files exist so their absence cannot be hidden. They carry no probabilities or candidate scores while the realm gate is failed.
Sources & artifacts
Citation-ready, with source boundaries visible.
Official FIFA/federation URLs remain references. When a retained official page is a dynamic client shell, current-match row text is supported by a separately frozen rendered secondary results snapshot rather than relabeled as an official capture.
- 3 official url reference client shell
- 1 rendered secondary fixture support
- 14 rendered secondary row support
- 3 pending final xi