# Why This Card Can Fail

The locked C4 covers 37.7283% of the model's exact-score mass. Most model mass
therefore remains outside the four public nodes.

The clearest failure routes are:

1. **Spain 2-1.** At 7.8071%, it trails the fourth node by only 0.03 percentage
   points. This is the sharpest selection boundary.
2. **A scoreless final.** `0-0` carries 7.1672%; knockout caution can suppress
   both attacks beyond the model's central expectation.
3. **A two-goal clean-sheet win.** `0-2` and `2-0` carry 6.1074% and 6.0801%.
4. **A higher draw.** `2-2` carries 5.2724% and is consistent with the model's
   29.4% four-plus-goal branch.
5. **Sparse Argentina comparison data.** Argentina's Spain-level realm has
   effective sample size 3.2452 and therefore depends on shrinkage.
6. **Match events.** A red card, injury, penalty, or early tactical change can
   move the match outside every pregame assumption.

The card is a frozen test. These risks are recorded before kickoff and cannot be
used later to rewrite the four scores.