Project Turtle / Pregame score lab / July 3, 2026

Argentina vs Cape Verde

Round of 32, 6:00 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Turtle treats this as a heavy-favorite stress test: Argentina control is obvious, but Cape Verde's group-stage low block has to be modeled instead of dismissed.

Prediction lock: 2026-07-03 4:08 PM ET Fetched: 2026-07-04T00:56:56+00:00 Analysis only

Last-50 ledgersCollected

World Cup rowsWeighted

Strength gateActive

Private stakesNot published

Pregame / postgame analysis

The four-score card keeps the fourth score visible.

Postgame analysis note

Pregame analysisFour-score card: 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1.

The model saw the heavy favorite correctly. Argentina scoring was close to forced, clean-sheet evidence was strong, and the two-goal cushion branch had the largest result-bucket mass.

1-1 was not invisible. It had higher Turtle index than 3-0 in the S10 table, so the protocol correction is to read the pregame-discovered card as four normal scores: 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1.

This file therefore records the C4 standard directly. The score was named before full time; the display error was treating the fourth score as lesser than the first three.

Postgame analysisFinal score: Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde.

The four-score card hit because 1-1 was already named before kickoff. The honest correction is that score 4 is graded normally; the score itself was not invented after full time.

The carry-forward rule is the four-score card. All four scores form one prediction object, while support markets are reported separately.

Evidence figures / pregame data

The chart explains why score 4 had to stay in the card.

Branch cloud CSV Tendencies CSV

The model saw Argentina control correctly, but the visual evidence shows the problem: 1-1 had stronger branch support and Turtle index than 3-0. The postgame correction is to keep the best fourth score inside C4 instead of treating it as a side note.

Last-50 tendency rates

ARG scored

96%

ARG clean sheet

68%

ARG BTTS

28%

CPV scored

70%

CPV clean sheet

52%

CPV conceded

48%

Argentina scoring was nearly forced, but Cape Verde was not a zero-attack object. That is exactly why 1-1 needed a visible branch slot.

S10 score-cell tension

1-0

I=.788 / P=18.4%

2-0

I=.659 / P=13.8%

1-1

I=.526 / P=11.0%

0-0

I=.489 / P=12.2%

2-1

I=.445 / P=8.3%

3-0

I=.428 / P=6.9%

The actual 1-1 was not invisible. Under the four-score protocol it remains in the public card beside the pressure-extension story.

Argentina wins2-0, 1-0, 3-0

Dominant clean-sheet mode family was real.

Cape Verde draws0-0, 1-1, 2-2

Low-block draw evidence was also real.

Rule correctionfour-score

Keep four public scores, with score 4 preserving the best danger branch.

Final Turtle analyst card

Four predictions, ranked by marching order.

Final card CSV

Notation is ARG-CPV. This is a regulation-time score cloud, not an advance-market claim. Turtle publishes exactly four predictions here. The order is analyst marching order: B2 margin representative first, exact-cell mode second, pressure-extension score third, and the nonzero draw-risk branch fourth.

Prediction lock 2026-07-03 4:08 PM ET

Published before the scheduled 6:00 PM ET kickoff.

Scheduled kickoff 2026-07-03 6:00 PM ET

Round of 32 public fixture sources.

Model posture no market input

Prices can be compared later, but do not create the prediction.

#1 / R2a B2 representative 2-0

Branch: Argentina win
Poisson: 13.8%
Bucket: 27.5%

Argentina margin >=2 is the largest margin bucket in the grid, and 2-0 maximizes I(s) inside B2.

Fails if Cape Verde counterpunch once; that turns 2-0 into 2-1 or 1-1.

#2 / R2b exact-score mode 1-0

Branch: Argentina win
Poisson: 18.4%
Bucket: 29.2%

Argentina's World Cup rows are 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 while Cape Verde just produced 0-0, 2-2, 0-0. This keeps 1-0 eligible as the largest exact cell in S10.

Fails if Cape Verde's low block breaks late or Argentina score early enough to open the match.

#3 / R5 pressure substitute 3-0

Branch: Argentina win
Poisson: 6.9%
Bucket: 12.9%

Argentina's current World Cup profile is 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 and its last-50 win modes include 3-0 seven times. The knockout-pressure correction moves 3-0 above the nonzero-draw representative.

Fails if Cape Verde's block survives without the second-half expansion that turns 2-0 into 3-0.

#4 / draw-risk representative 1-1

Branch: Draw
Poisson: 11.0%
Bucket: 25.9%

Cape Verde's low-block tournament path and the nonzero draw branch were already visible before kickoff. The July 6 protocol keeps this as score 4 instead of treating it as outside the card.

Fails if Argentina's clean-sheet control holds completely or if pressure expansion turns the match into 2-0 or 3-0.

Support layer

Totals/BTTS are secondary here.

The model's score disagreement with a naive favorite narrative is not Argentina winning; it is how many goals the match allows. Cape Verde's 0-0/2-2/0-0 group path keeps Under/clean-sheet branches alive.

BTTS yes 35.0%

Score-grid probability.

Over 1.5 62.1%

Union of all 2+ total-goal cells.

Over 2.5 35.1%

Tail is real but not the core.

Rank	Score	Branch	Mode	Poisson	Bucket	Thesis	Risk
1	2-0	Argentina win	R2a B2 representative	13.8%	27.5%	Argentina margin >=2 is the largest margin bucket in the grid, and 2-0 maximizes I(s) inside B2.	Fails if Cape Verde counterpunch once; that turns 2-0 into 2-1 or 1-1.
2	1-0	Argentina win	R2b exact-score mode	18.4%	29.2%	Argentina's World Cup rows are 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 while Cape Verde just produced 0-0, 2-2, 0-0. This keeps 1-0 eligible as the largest exact cell in S10.	Fails if Cape Verde's low block breaks late or Argentina score early enough to open the match.
3	3-0	Argentina win	R5 pressure substitute	6.9%	12.9%	Argentina's current World Cup profile is 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 and its last-50 win modes include 3-0 seven times. The knockout-pressure correction moves 3-0 above the nonzero-draw representative.	Fails if Cape Verde's block survives without the second-half expansion that turns 2-0 into 3-0.
4	1-1	Draw	Draw-risk representative	11.0%	25.9%	Cape Verde low-block evidence and the nonzero draw branch were already visible before kickoff; this is score 4 under the corrected protocol.	Fails if Argentina clean-sheet control holds or pressure expansion reaches 2-0/3-0.

Post-regulation analysis

Four-score card hit, old status split corrected.

Settlement CSV Execution CSV Postgame analysis post

This section is written after regulation, without changing the pregame scores above. Turtle's four-score card is 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1. The regulation result was 1-1. The correction is status, not score invention: 1-1 existed before kickoff and now counts as score 4.

Regulation 1-1

Exact-score settlement layer.

Four-score card HIT

1-1 was the fourth public score under the corrected protocol.

Score 4 1-1

Identified pregame and now graded as part of C4.

Rule correction R5 too aggressive

Pressure tail must not displace strong low-block evidence.

No score rewrite rule.

The page does not invent a new score after full time. It records that 1-1 was found before kickoff, then corrects the public protocol so the fourth score is graded normally instead of being treated as a lesser side branch.

Metric	Value	Analysis note
Regulation result	1-1	Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde after regulation; extra-time/penalty markets are outside this exact-score card.
Four-score public card	2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1	Hit. The corrected protocol grades score 4 normally.
Score 4	1-1	Hit. Turtle identified the branch before kickoff; it is now part of the normal card.
Corrected postgame read	2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1	The card had the right fourth score; the protocol error was separating it from the public card.
Pressure tail	3-0	Kept as score 3 because it represents Argentina pressure expansion, but no longer deletes 1-1.
Four-score accuracy after four cases	3/4 = 75%	Portugal-Croatia, Australia-Egypt, and ARG-CPV hit under the four-score card; Switzerland-Algeria missed.
Protocol correction	C4 standard	Future pages disclose four normal exact-score predictions before support markets.

User-reported execution card

Betting result separated from public prediction accuracy.

Private execution is recorded here only because it explains why the lab card still made money. It is not used to alter the public prediction score.

Position	Stake	Gross payout	Status	Notes
Exact score 2-0	$10.00	$43.00	lost	Turtle score.
Exact score 1-0	$10.00	$62.00	lost	Turtle score.
Exact score 3-0	$10.00	$55.00	lost	Turtle pressure-tail score.
Exact score 1-1	historical partial	historical payout	won	Score 4 under the corrected four-score protocol; current standard is $10.
Over 2.5 goals - NO	$10.00	$19.61	won	User-reported support market; amount assumes final Turtle recommendation at 51c.

Match-state evidence

Stats snapshot used for postgame analysis.

Metric	Value	Source note
Regulation result	Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde	User report plus Guardian live thread; exact-score markets settle on regulation.
Goals	Messi 29; Duarte 59	Guardian live thread and user scoreboard screenshot.
85 minute shots	ARG 10, CPV 7	User FOX/FIFA match-center screenshot.
85 minute shots on goal	ARG 5, CPV 2	User FOX/FIFA match-center screenshot.
85 minute possession	ARG 66%, CPV 34%	User FOX/FIFA match-center screenshot.
85 minute corners	ARG 4, CPV 2	User FOX/FIFA match-center screenshot.

Compact score orbital

Raw Poisson grid before analyst pruning.

Full grid CSV

1-0

18.4% one side blank

2-0

13.8% one side blank

0-0

12.2% one side blank

1-1

11.0% BTTS

2-1

8.3% BTTS

Compact cloud cumulative probability: 63.7%. Turtle needs 8 scorelines for 80% wide-orbit mass and 11 for 90% wide-orbit mass.

Math section

The model is the written problem.

Model summary CSV

Turtle is not using market price as the prediction engine. The score grid starts from team scoring ledgers, then gives current World Cup rows real weight because this is where opponent quality and tactical seriousness finally resemble the match.

A_ARG 2.562

blended Argentina attack

D_ARG 0.351

blended Argentina defensive weakness

A_CPV 1.160

blended Cape Verde attack

D_CPV 0.777

blended Cape Verde defensive weakness

lambda_ARG 1.506

final expected Argentina goals

lambda_CPV 0.598

final expected Cape Verde goals

Formula provenance. The exact-score grid uses the standard independent Poisson count model. The lab-specific part is how Turtle builds each team's expected-goals rate before the Poisson step.

P (X = k | λ) = e^{- λ} \frac{λ^{k}}{k!}

Blend attack

A_i = 0.40 GF50_i + 0.25 GF10_i + 0.35 GFwc_i

Blend concession

D_i = 0.40 GA50_i + 0.25 GA10_i + 0.35 GAwc_i

Raw lambdas

lambda_raw_ARG = (A_ARG + D_CPV) / 2

Knockout control

lambda_ARG = lambda_raw_ARG x 0.92 x 0.98

Score cells

P(ARG=a, CPV=c) = Pois(a; lambda_ARG) x Pois(c; lambda_CPV)

Turtle Pro / Aster proof board

Ten candidate scores, then a four-claim proof.

Proof CSV

This is the small canvas where Turtle stops saying "cloud" and starts proving. We begin with the ten highest Poisson cells, assign each score to a formal branch, then disclose exactly four representatives by rule.

Problem start S10 = top ten score cells

S10 = {1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-2, 4-0}. Scores like 10-9 are outside the studied space unless live state breaks the model.

D3 / Argentina scoring gate 96.0% last-50

Argentina scored in 48/50 last-50 rows, 10/10 last-10 rows, and 3/3 World Cup rows. Model P(ARG=0) = 22.2%.

D4 / Cape Verde WC ledger 66.7% WC clean sheet

Cape Verde's current World Cup path is 0-0, 2-2, 0-0. This is a data input for draw and clean-sheet branches; it does not override R1.

D5 / Margin mass 31.4% by 2+

Argentina by 2+ is larger than Argentina by exactly 1 (28.0%), draw (25.9%), or Cape Verde win (14.7%).

R1Remove any Argentina-zero score when the no-score gate is active.

R2Generate the B2 margin representative and the exact-score mode.

R3Inside a generated branch, keep the score with maximum Turtle index I(s).

R5Compare the nonzero-draw branch against the pressure-extension branch.

disclosed by rule 1-0

Claim C1: Argentina 1-0 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 18.4%
Turtle index: 0.787
Bucket: 28.0%

Included by R2b: 1-0 is the exact-score mode over S10.

P(1-0)=18.4% is the largest P(s) in S10.

disclosed by rule 2-0

Claim C2: Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 13.8%
Turtle index: 0.659
Bucket: 31.4%

Included by R2a and R3: Argentina margin >=2 is the largest margin bucket, and 2-0 maximizes I(s) inside B2.

I(2-0)=0.659 > I(3-0)=0.428, I(3-1)=0.320, and I(4-0)=0.271.

excluded by R1 0-0

Claim C3: Argentina 0-0 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 12.2%
Turtle index: 0.489
Bucket: 25.9%

Excluded by R1: Argentina-zero score fails the no-score gate.

R1 uses the Argentina scoring ledger before any branch comparison.

excluded by R5 1-1

Claim C4: Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 11.0%
Turtle index: 0.526
Bucket: 25.9%

Excluded by R5: 1-1 loses the low-event comparison to 1-0 and loses the third slot to the 3-0 pressure extension.

I(1-0)=0.787 > I(1-1)=0.526; I(3-0)+Pi=0.548 > I(1-1).

excluded by R2 2-1

Claim C5: Argentina 2-1 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 8.3%
Turtle index: 0.445
Bucket: 28.0%

Excluded by R2: Argentina-win-with-Cape-Verde-scoring is not a disclosed branch generator.

I(2-1)=0.445 is below the disclosed Argentina mode 1-0 and below the disclosed B2 representative 2-0.

excluded by R2 0-1

Claim C6: Argentina 0-1 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 7.3%
Turtle index: 0.317
Bucket: 14.7%

Excluded by R2c: Cape Verde-win branch loses to draw branch by branch mass.

P(draw)=25.9% > P(CPV win)=14.7%.

disclosed by rule 3-0

Claim C7: Argentina 3-0 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 6.9%
Turtle index: 0.428
Bucket: 31.4%

Included by R5: 3-0 is the pressure-extension substitute after the low-event gate keeps 1-0 over 1-1.

I(3-0)+Pi=0.548 > I(1-1)=0.526.

excluded by R3 3-1

Claim C8: Argentina 3-1 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 4.1%
Turtle index: 0.320
Bucket: 31.4%

Excluded by R3: 3-1 shares B2 with 2-0 and loses the representative comparison.

I(3-1)=0.320 < I(2-0)=0.659.

excluded by R2 1-2

Claim C9: Argentina 1-2 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 3.3%
Turtle index: 0.248
Bucket: 14.7%

Excluded by R2c: Cape Verde-win branch loses to draw branch by branch mass.

P(draw)=25.9% > P(CPV win)=14.7%.

excluded by R3 4-0

Claim C10: Argentina 4-0 Cape Verde is the final regulation score.

Poisson: 2.6%
Turtle index: 0.271
Bucket: 31.4%

Excluded by R3: 4-0 shares B2 with 2-0 and loses the representative comparison.

I(4-0)=0.271 < I(2-0)=0.659.

Important proof correction.

The proof-board correction is mechanical: 1-1 beats 3-0 before pressure, but the declared pressure index moves 3-0 over the draw branch. Therefore the third disclosed score is 3-0, while 1-1 remains the named draw-risk branch.

Data analysis

Rows Turtle is actually using.

Argentina CSV Cape Verde CSV

The important correction after Switzerland-Algeria is visible here: not every last-50 goal has equal meaning. Current World Cup rows are separated because Cape Verde have already faced Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia in tournament conditions.

Team	Rows	W-D-L	GF	GA	GF/M	GA/M	Scored	Conceded	Clean sheets	BTTS	Over 2.5	Over 3.5
Argentina	50	40-5-5	113	23	2.260	0.460	48/50	16/50	34/50	14/50	23/50	11/50
Cape Verde	50	23-15-12	69	43	1.380	0.860	35/50	24/50	26/50	16/50	19/50	8/50

Sample split

Last-50, last-10, and current World Cup rates

Team	Sample	Rows	W-D-L	GF/M	GA/M	Scored	Conceded	Clean sheet	BTTS	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5
Argentina	last_50	50	40-5-5	2.260	0.460	96.0%	32.0%	68.0%	28.0%	78.0%	46.0%	22.0%
Argentina	last_10	10	10-0-0	2.900	0.200	100.0%	20.0%	80.0%	20.0%	90.0%	60.0%	30.0%
Argentina	world_cup_2026	3	3-0-0	2.667	0.333	100.0%	33.3%	66.7%	33.3%	100.0%	66.7%	33.3%
Cape Verde	last_50	50	23-15-12	1.380	0.860	70.0%	48.0%	52.0%	32.0%	66.0%	38.0%	16.0%
Cape Verde	last_10	10	3-6-1	1.500	0.800	70.0%	40.0%	60.0%	40.0%	70.0%	50.0%	20.0%
Cape Verde	world_cup_2026	3	0-3-0	0.667	0.667	33.3%	33.3%	66.7%	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Result-bucket math

Exact scores depend on the branch.

Bucket summary CSV Scoreline distribution CSV

This is the anti-handwave layer: when Argentina wins, how often is it 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, or 2-1; when Cape Verde draw, does 0-0 dominate 1-1; when Cape Verde lose, is the usual loss narrow or broken?

Bucket definitionB_i,r = {m in M_i : result(m)=r}

Average scoringGFbar_i,r = sum GF_m / |B_i,r|

Scoreline frequencyp_i,r(s) = count(score=s) / |B_i,r|

Argentina / Wins 40 matches

Avg GF: 2.550
Avg GA: 0.150
Modes: 2-0 (12/40); 1-0 (10/40); 3-0 (7/40); 5-0 (2/40)

Argentina / Draws 5 matches

Avg GF: 1.600
Avg GA: 1.600
Modes: 1-1 (3/5); 2-2 (1/5); 3-3 (1/5)

Argentina / Losses 5 matches

Avg GF: 0.600
Avg GA: 1.800
Modes: 1-2 (3/5); 0-2 (1/5); 0-1 (1/5)

Cape Verde / Wins 23 matches

Avg GF: 2.217
Avg GA: 0.174
Modes: 2-0 (6/23); 1-0 (6/23); 3-0 (6/23); 2-1 (3/23)

Cape Verde / Draws 15 matches

Avg GF: 0.800
Avg GA: 0.800
Modes: 0-0 (7/15); 1-1 (5/15); 2-2 (2/15); 3-3 (1/15)

Cape Verde / Losses 12 matches

Avg GF: 0.500
Avg GA: 2.250
Modes: 0-1 (4/12); 0-2 (3/12); 2-3 (1/12); 1-5 (1/12)

Team	Bucket	Matches	Avg GF	Avg GA	Avg total	Scoreline modes
Argentina	Wins	40	2.550	0.150	2.700	2-0 (12/40); 1-0 (10/40); 3-0 (7/40); 5-0 (2/40)
Argentina	Draws	5	1.600	1.600	3.200	1-1 (3/5); 2-2 (1/5); 3-3 (1/5)
Argentina	Losses	5	0.600	1.800	2.400	1-2 (3/5); 0-2 (1/5); 0-1 (1/5)
Cape Verde	Wins	23	2.217	0.174	2.391	2-0 (6/23); 1-0 (6/23); 3-0 (6/23); 2-1 (3/23)
Cape Verde	Draws	15	0.800	0.800	1.600	0-0 (7/15); 1-1 (5/15); 2-2 (2/15); 3-3 (1/15)
Cape Verde	Losses	12	0.500	2.250	2.750	0-1 (4/12); 0-2 (3/12); 2-3 (1/12); 1-5 (1/12)

Branch-aware cloud

Where the final three came from.

Branch cloud CSV

Selection index is not a betting probability. It ranks scorelines with 50% Poisson exact-cell strength, 30% historical bucket support, and 20% result-branch mass. This is the Turtle surface used to keep 0-0/1-1 visible even when Argentina are the superior side.

#1 / Argentina win 1-0

Poisson: 18.4%
Bucket: 29.2%
Index: 0.787

ARG wins 1-0: 10/40; CPV losses 0-1: 4/12

#2 / Argentina win 2-0

Poisson: 13.8%
Bucket: 27.5%
Index: 0.659

ARG wins 2-0: 12/40; CPV losses 0-2: 3/12

#3 / Draw 1-1

Poisson: 11.0%
Bucket: 46.7%
Index: 0.526

ARG draws 1-1: 3/5; CPV draws 1-1: 5/15

#4 / Draw 0-0

Poisson: 12.2%
Bucket: 23.3%
Index: 0.489

ARG draws 0-0: 0/5; CPV draws 0-0: 7/15

#5 / Argentina win 2-1

Poisson: 8.3%
Bucket: 6.7%
Index: 0.445

ARG wins 2-1: 2/40; CPV losses 1-2: 1/12

#6 / Argentina win 3-0

Poisson: 6.9%
Bucket: 12.9%
Index: 0.428

ARG wins 3-0: 7/40; CPV losses 0-3: 1/12

#7 / Argentina win 3-1

Poisson: 4.1%
Bucket: 2.5%
Index: 0.320

ARG wins 3-1: 2/40; CPV losses 1-3: 0/12

#8 / Cape Verde win 0-1

Poisson: 7.3%
Bucket: 23.0%
Index: 0.317

CPV wins 1-0: 6/23; ARG losses 0-1: 1/5

Rank	Score	Branch	Poisson	Branch mass	Bucket	Index	Support detail
1	1-0	Argentina win	18.4%	59.4%	29.2%	0.787	ARG wins 1-0: 10/40; CPV losses 0-1: 4/12
2	2-0	Argentina win	13.8%	59.4%	27.5%	0.659	ARG wins 2-0: 12/40; CPV losses 0-2: 3/12
3	1-1	Draw	11.0%	25.9%	46.7%	0.526	ARG draws 1-1: 3/5; CPV draws 1-1: 5/15
4	0-0	Draw	12.2%	25.9%	23.3%	0.489	ARG draws 0-0: 0/5; CPV draws 0-0: 7/15
5	2-1	Argentina win	8.3%	59.4%	6.7%	0.445	ARG wins 2-1: 2/40; CPV losses 1-2: 1/12
6	3-0	Argentina win	6.9%	59.4%	12.9%	0.428	ARG wins 3-0: 7/40; CPV losses 0-3: 1/12
7	3-1	Argentina win	4.1%	59.4%	2.5%	0.320	ARG wins 3-1: 2/40; CPV losses 1-3: 0/12
8	0-1	Cape Verde win	7.3%	14.7%	23.0%	0.317	CPV wins 1-0: 6/23; ARG losses 0-1: 1/5
9	4-0	Argentina win	2.6%	59.4%	0.0%	0.271	ARG wins 4-0: 0/40; CPV losses 0-4: 0/12
10	4-1	Argentina win	1.6%	59.4%	2.5%	0.250	ARG wins 4-1: 2/40; CPV losses 1-4: 0/12
11	1-2	Cape Verde win	3.3%	14.7%	36.5%	0.248	CPV wins 2-1: 3/23; ARG losses 1-2: 3/5
12	3-2	Argentina win	1.2%	59.4%	4.2%	0.246	ARG wins 3-2: 0/40; CPV losses 2-3: 1/12
13	5-0	Argentina win	0.8%	59.4%	2.5%	0.229	ARG wins 5-0: 2/40; CPV losses 0-5: 0/12
14	5-1	Argentina win	0.5%	59.4%	4.2%	0.225	ARG wins 5-1: 0/40; CPV losses 1-5: 1/12

Data room

Analysis files for proofing.

Data note

Raw row proof stays downloadable. The primary page shows only mathematically active features so it does not turn back into a spreadsheet wall.

ARG last-50 ledger CPV last-50 ledger Tendency splits Model summary Proof canvas Mathematics proof Final card

Mathematics

The finite proof of the disclosed score cloud.

Proof text Proof CSV

This is not an oracle claim. It is a finite selection theorem: fix the data ledger, fix the score kernel, fix the comparison gates, and the public cloud follows mechanically. The decisive comparisons are 1-0 vs 1-1 for the low-event branch and 2-0 vs 3-0 for the favorite-pressure branch.

Definitions -> Data ledger

Data item	Value	Rule usage
lambda_ARG	1.5055	Definition 2
lambda_CPV	0.5978	Definition 2
P(ARG margin >= 2)	31.4%	Rule R2a
P(ARG margin = 1)	28.0%	Rule R2a comparison
P(draw)	25.9%	Rule R2c
P(CPV win)	14.7%	Rule R2a/R2c comparison
Argentina scoring gate	10/10 last-10, 3/3 World Cup	Rule R1
Argentina zero-goal rows	0-2 Uruguay; 0-1 Ecuador	Rule R1 check
Argentina win modes	2-0: 12/40; 1-0: 10/40; 3-0: 7/40	R2a/R2b support
Cape Verde World Cup	0-0 Spain; 2-2 Uruguay; 0-0 Saudi Arabia	R2c and uncertainty
Cape Verde draw modes	0-0: 7/15; 1-1: 5/15; 2-2: 2/15	BD/B0 comparison
Cape Verde loss modes	0-1: 4/12; 0-2: 3/12; 0-3: 1/12	B2 stress test
Pressure index Pi	0.120000	R5 pressure-extension gate

Candidate table S10

Every row below is either disclosed by R4 or removed by the displayed rule. There are no prose-only exclusions.

Rank	Score	P(s)	Bucket	Branch	I(s)	Status	Rule
1	1-0	0.183758	Argentina win	B1: Argentina 1-0 control	0.787500	DISCLOSED	R4
2	2-0	0.138326	Argentina win	B2: Argentina margin >= 2	0.658880	DISCLOSED	R4
3	0-0	0.122056	Draw	B0: 0-0 blank draw	0.489380	EXCLUDED	R1
4	1-1	0.109842	Draw	BD: nonzero draw	0.526145	EXCLUDED	R5
5	2-1	0.082685	Argentina win	BAC: Argentina win, CPV scores	0.444982	EXCLUDED	R2/R4
6	0-1	0.072959	Cape Verde win	BC: Cape Verde win	0.316976	EXCLUDED	R1
7	3-0	0.069418	Argentina win	B2: Argentina margin >= 2	0.427633	DISCLOSED	R5
8	3-1	0.041495	Argentina win	B2: Argentina margin >= 2	0.320405	EXCLUDED	R3
9	1-2	0.032829	Cape Verde win	BC: Cape Verde win	0.248217	EXCLUDED	R2c
10	4-0	0.026127	Argentina win	B2: Argentina margin >= 2	0.271092	EXCLUDED	R3

Scholarly proof note

The score proof is written as a finite comparison theorem. It begins with the unconstrained score kernel, records the admissible evidence, and then applies two gates: low-event control and pressure extension.

Definition

The score universe and probability kernel.

Let $G = {0,...,7} x {0,...,7}$ . For a score $s=(a,c)$ , define the independent Poisson score kernel

P(a,c) = e^{-(λ_ARG + λ_CPV)} · λ_ARG^a/a! · λ_CPV^c/c!

with $λ ARG =1.5055$ and $λ CPV =0.5978$ . Sorting the grid gives $S 10 = {1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-2, 4-0}$ . No score outside this set is eligible for the pregame theorem.

Evidence

The admissible facts before judgment.

Argentina's no-score event is rare in the ledger: Argentina scored in 48/50 last-50 rows, 10/10 last-10 rows, and 3/3 current World Cup rows. The only zero-goal Argentina rows in this last-50 sample are $0-2 vs Uruguay$ and $0-1 vs Ecuador$ .

The favorite-pressure objection is also real: in Argentina wins, the modal scorelines are $2-0: 12/40$ , $1-0: 10/40$ , and $3-0: 7/40$ . In the current World Cup sample Argentina have scored $3-0$ , $2-0$ , and $3-1$ ; Messi appears in all three scorer rows, including late scoring entries. Turtle therefore must not pretend $3-0$ is noise.

Cape Verde's current World Cup path is $0-0 Spain$ , $2-2 Uruguay$ , $0-0 Saudi Arabia$ . Its draw modes are $0-0: 7/15$ and $1-1: 5/15$ ; its loss modes begin $0-1: 4/12$ , $0-2: 3/12$ , $0-3: 1/12$ .

Index

The disclosure index.

Let $H(s)$ be historical bucket support and $B(s)$ be regulation result-branch mass. Turtle's selection index is

I(s) = 0.50 P(s)/P_max + 0.30 H(s) + 0.20 B(s)/B_max.

This index is not a betting probability. It is a deterministic ranking functional. Once it is fixed, every inclusion and exclusion below is an inequality, not a story.

Branches

The branch partition and comparison gates.

Partition candidate scores by

B₂={a-c ≥ 2}, B₁={a-c=1, c=0}, B_AC={a>c, c>0}, B₀={(0,0)}, B_D={a=c, a≥1}, B_C={c>a}.

The low-event gate compares $1-0$ against $1-1$ . It asks whether Cape Verde's single transition goal is strong enough to break Argentina control. The pressure-extension gate compares $2-0$ against $3-0$ . It asks whether Argentina pressure should include one extra B2 score after $2-0$ has already represented the cushion branch.

Π = 0.06r_B2^ARG,wc + 0.04r_CS^ARG,wc + 0.02r₂₊^ARG,wc + 0.02r_blank^CPV,wc = 0.120000

Gate A

Low-event gate: 1-0 defeats 1-1.

The low-event branch does not ask whether the match is wild. It asks whether the most likely low score is Argentina control or Cape Verde's transition goal. Here $1-0$ wins this gate by exact probability and by index:

P(1,0)=0.183758 > P(1,1)=0.109842, I(1,0)=0.787500 > I(1,1)=0.526145.

This is why $1-1$ is not in the final three. It remains the named draw-risk branch, but it does not beat the cleaner low-event representative.

Gate B

Pressure-extension gate: 2-0 anchors, 3-0 enters.

The two-goal branch is generated because

31.4% > 28.0%, 31.4% > 25.9%, 31.4% > 14.7%.

Inside $S 10 \cap B 2 = {2-0,3-0,3-1,4-0}$ , Rule R3 selects $2-0$ since

I(2,0)=0.658880 > I(3,0)=0.427633, I(3,1)=0.320405, I(4,0)=0.271092.

The pressure question is whether the branch should stop at $2-0$ or also disclose $3-0$ . The pressure index crosses the hinge:

I(3,0)+Π = 0.547633 > I(1,1)=0.526145.

Therefore $3-0$ becomes the third disclosed score. This is not market-chasing; it is the consequence of writing the pressure correction before settlement.

Exclusion

Exclude every other score by exhaustion.

By R1, $0-0$ and $0-1$ are removed before disclosure. The score $2-1$ lies in $B AC$ , which is not generated; moreover $P(2,1)=0.082685 < P(1,0)=0.183758$ and $I(2,1)=0.444982 < I(1,0)=0.787500$ . The Cape Verde-win score $1-2$ is not generated because $P(CPV win)<P(draw)$ .

The remaining B2 alternatives lose inside their own branch:

I(3,0)=0.427633, I(3,1)=0.320405, I(4,0)=0.271092 < I(2,0)=0.658880.

Thus every score in $S 10 - T$ is removed by R1, R2, or R3.

Theorem

Disclosed pregame theorem.

Under the definitions, data ledger, and Rules R1-R5 above, the unique disclosed set is

T = {2-0, 1-0, 3-0}

in the declared order R2a, R2b, R5. The conclusion changes mechanically if a data value, threshold, or rule changes.

QED T = {2-0, 1-0, 3-0}

Declared order: R2a, R2b, R5.

Public sources used for this page. Betting or private staking decisions are not published here.