# Turtle Data Audit: Argentina vs Cape Verde

Fetch timestamp UTC: `2026-07-04T00:56:56+00:00`
Prediction lock ET: `2026-07-03 4:08 PM ET`
Scheduled kickoff ET: `2026-07-03 6:00 PM ET`
No-leak cutoff date: `2026-07-03`

Scope: public pregame score-orbital analysis only. No private stakes, no auto-trading, and no market prices are used as prediction inputs.

## Sources

- Argentina results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Cape Verde results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Guardian schedule: Argentina-Cape Verde at 6pm ET: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jul/03/how-to-watch-world-cup-argentina-cape-verde
- Guardian live result thread: Argentina-Cape Verde: https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2026/jul/03/argentina-v-cape-verde-world-cup-2026-last-32-live
- Round of 32 fixture slate cross-check: https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/chelsea-fc-international-duty/169925/2026-world-cup-round-of-32-australia-vs-egypt-argentina-vs-cape-verde-colombia-vs-ghana
- Public preview boundary: low-scoring mismatch thesis: https://nypost.com/2026/07/03/betting/argentina-vs-cape-verde-world-cup-prediction-odds-picks-best-bet-for-round-of-32-on-friday/

## Last-50 Summary

| Team | W-D-L | GF/M | GA/M | Scored | Conceded | Clean sheets | BTTS | O2.5 | O3.5 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Argentina | 40-5-5 | 2.260 | 0.460 | 48/50 | 16/50 | 34/50 | 14/50 | 23/50 | 11/50 |
| Cape Verde | 23-15-12 | 1.380 | 0.860 | 35/50 | 24/50 | 26/50 | 16/50 | 19/50 | 8/50 |

## Model

- `lambda_argentina` = `1.5055` (final expected goals)
- `lambda_cape_verde` = `0.5978` (final expected goals)
- `raw_lambda_argentina` = `1.6698` (before pace/control)
- `raw_lambda_cape_verde` = `0.7555` (before pace/finishing)
- `argentina_win_regulation` = `0.594083` (score-grid probability)
- `draw_regulation` = `0.259226` (score-grid probability)
- `cape_verde_win_regulation` = `0.146517` (score-grid probability)
- `btts_yes` = `0.350029` (score-grid probability)
- `over_1_5` = `0.621052` (score-grid probability)
- `over_2_5` = `0.351078` (score-grid probability)
- `over_3_5` = `0.161802` (score-grid probability)
- `containment_80_count` = `8` (exact scores needed for 80 percent grid mass)
- `containment_90_count` = `11` (exact scores needed for 90 percent grid mass)

## Final Card

- #1 `2-0`: Argentina margin >=2 is the largest margin bucket in the grid, and 2-0 maximizes I(s) inside B2.
- #2 `1-0`: Argentina's World Cup rows are 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 while Cape Verde just produced 0-0, 2-2, 0-0. This keeps 1-0 eligible as the largest exact cell in S10.
- #3 `3-0`: Argentina's current World Cup profile is 3-0, 2-0, 3-1 and its last-50 win modes include 3-0 seven times. The knockout-pressure correction moves 3-0 above the nonzero-draw representative.

## Settlement

- `Regulation result` = `1-1`: Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde after regulation; extra-time/penalty markets are outside this exact-score card.
- `Four-score public card` = `2-0, 1-0, 3-0`: Miss. The public page disclosed 3-0 instead of the named 1-1 draw-risk branch.
- `Score 4 branch` = `1-1`: Hit. Turtle identified the branch but ranked it as saver/risk instead of public top three.
- `Corrected post-audit cloud` = `1-0, 2-0, 1-1`: The low-block rule should keep 1-1 above the pressure tail unless live expansion confirms 3-0.
- `Pressure tail` = `3-0`: Should have been a small tail, not the third official disclosed score.
- `Four-score accuracy after four cases` = `2/4 = 50%`: Portugal-Croatia and Australia-Egypt hit; Switzerland-Algeria and official ARG-CPV missed.
- `Counterfactual corrected accuracy` = `3/4 = 75%`: If ARG-CPV had disclosed the score 4 branch, the settled cloud record would be 75%.

## User-Reported Execution

- `Exact score 2-0`: stake `$10.00`, gross payout `$43.00`, status `lost`. Official Turtle score.
- `Exact score 1-0`: stake `$10.00`, gross payout `$62.00`, status `lost`. Official Turtle score.
- `Exact score 3-0`: stake `$10.00`, gross payout `$55.00`, status `lost`. Official Turtle pressure-tail score.
- `Exact score 1-1`: stake `$5.00`, gross payout `$93.00`, status `won`. Named draw-risk branch; not in four-score card.
- `Over 2.5 goals - NO`: stake `$10.00`, gross payout `$19.61`, status `won`. User-reported support market; amount assumes final Turtle recommendation at 51c.

## Turtle Pro Proof Canvas

- `1-0` DISCLOSED_BY_RULE: Included by R2b: 1-0 is the exact-score mode over S10.
- `2-0` DISCLOSED_BY_RULE: Included by R2a and R3: Argentina margin >=2 is the largest margin bucket, and 2-0 maximizes I(s) inside B2.
- `0-0` EXCLUDED_BY_R1: Excluded by R1: Argentina-zero score fails the no-score gate.
- `1-1` EXCLUDED_BY_R5: Excluded by R5: 1-1 loses the low-event comparison to 1-0 and loses the third slot to the 3-0 pressure extension.
- `2-1` EXCLUDED_BY_R2: Excluded by R2: Argentina-win-with-Cape-Verde-scoring is not a disclosed branch generator.
- `0-1` EXCLUDED_BY_R2: Excluded by R2c: Cape Verde-win branch loses to draw branch by branch mass.
- `3-0` DISCLOSED_BY_RULE: Included by R5: 3-0 is the pressure-extension substitute after the low-event gate keeps 1-0 over 1-1.
- `3-1` EXCLUDED_BY_R3: Excluded by R3: 3-1 shares B2 with 2-0 and loses the representative comparison.
- `1-2` EXCLUDED_BY_R2: Excluded by R2c: Cape Verde-win branch loses to draw branch by branch mass.
- `4-0` EXCLUDED_BY_R3: Excluded by R3: 4-0 shares B2 with 2-0 and loses the representative comparison.