Colombia defensive edge keeps one clean-sheet branch mandatory.
Project Turtle / locked pregame score-cloud test / July 7, 2026
Switzerland vs Colombia
This file locks four regulation-time score nodes before settlement. The card is not a claim of certainty; it is a public score-cloud test built from Colombia defensive edge, Switzerland scoring pressure, and close-rank draw risk.
ReadinessMedium
Rank seedCOL #13 / SUI #19
Locked nodes4
SettlementPending
Locked C4 / regulation time
Four score nodes, all public prediction nodes.
Score order in model files is Colombia-Switzerland. The labels below are written out fully to avoid home-away ambiguity.
Colombia edge while preserving Switzerland scoring pressure.
Highest raw count cell and Switzerland draw profile survives.
Containment for Swiss BTTS plus Colombia two-goal branch.
Data ledger / what is actually used
The model is close-rank, not giant-favorite.
Colombia tendency layer
Colombia's important split is defensive: GA50 is 0.80 and clean sheets are live. That is why 1-0 cannot be deleted.
Switzerland tendency layer
Switzerland's scoring pressure is too real to force only Colombia clean sheets. It appears in the card as 1-1, 2-1 Colombia, and 2-2.
GF 1.86, GA 0.80.
GF 1.88, GA 1.16.
Player-level lineup overlap is not yet reconciled in this file.
Recursive contradiction audit
Every score is attacked before it survives.
| Candidate | Status | Strongest attack | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | LOCKED | Colombia result edge | Highest raw count cell; close-rank draw profile survives. |
| Colombia 2-1 | LOCKED | Colombia clean-sheet evidence | Swiss scoring evidence survives as BTTS pressure. |
| Colombia 1-0 | LOCKED | Swiss scoring profile | Colombia defensive edge keeps clean-sheet branch mandatory. |
| 2-2 | LOCKED | Under-3.5 pressure | High-draw containment for both scoring plus Colombia two-goal ability. |
| Switzerland 2-1 | EXCLUDED | Colombia defense/rank edge | Swiss scoring is assigned to draw pressure before win pressure. |
| Colombia 2-0 | EXCLUDED | Swiss scored in 42/50 | Danger miss branch, but 2-1 is stronger once Swiss goal is preserved. |
| 0-0 | EXCLUDED | Both scored in 9/10 recent rows | Over-1.5 gate defeats no-score. |
| Colombia 3-1 | EXCLUDED | No ruthless/open trigger | Tail evaluated but loses to 2-1 and 2-2. |
Support market analysis / after score lock
Support is separate from the score cloud.
Protects 1-1, Colombia 2-1, and 2-2, but conflicts with Colombia 1-0. At a visible 69%, this is fair rather than a clean edge.
Protects Colombia 1-0, 1-1, and Colombia 2-1; conflicts with 2-2.
Visible 39% versus model 44-47%. This is the best visible edge, but it is not insurance because it needs Colombia to score at least twice.
Raw model around 20.2%. After uncertainty, this is not enough and it conflicts with the Swiss-scoring thesis.
Postgame audit shell
Settlement will be appended without moving the target.
The locked C4 and support notes above are not edited after kickoff. After full time, this page gets a separate postgame analysis section naming the hit or the exact failure class.