# Switzerland vs Colombia Prediction Lock

Project Turtle locked analysis file for Switzerland vs Colombia.

- Match: Switzerland vs Colombia
- Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026, Round of 16
- Date: 2026-07-07
- Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: BC Place, Vancouver
- No-leak cutoff: pregame / before kickoff
- File state: locked pregame score-cloud test

## Locked C4

All four nodes are public prediction nodes. Score order below is Colombia-Switzerland.

1. Colombia 1-0 Switzerland
2. Colombia 2-1 Switzerland
3. 1-1 draw
4. 2-2 draw

## Thesis

This is a close-rank match, not a giant-underdog mismatch. Colombia carries the stronger defensive and result profile, while Switzerland carries a persistent scoring and draw profile. The card therefore uses two Colombia-win nodes and two draw nodes, with no Switzerland-win node.

## Important Rejections

- Colombia by more than 1.5 goals: raw model probability is close to the shown market around 20%, but not enough after uncertainty. It is not aligned with the C4 because the card gives Switzerland a live scoring/draw branch.
- Switzerland 2-1: named danger branch, rejected from C4 because Colombia's defense/rank edge makes Switzerland's scoring more likely to become draw pressure than win pressure.
- Colombia 2-0: named danger branch, rejected because Switzerland scored in 42/50 and 9/10 recent rows, so one Switzerland goal remains live.
- 3-1 / 3-2 tails: rejected because this file lacks a ruthless/open-game trigger strong enough to move from close-rank control into chaos.

## Support Markets

Support markets are analysis-only and are not part of the score prediction.

- Over 1.5 goals: protects 1-1, Colombia 2-1, and 2-2, but conflicts with Colombia 1-0. Market shown around 69%, which is fair rather than a clear edge.
- Under 3.5 goals: protects Colombia 1-0, 1-1, and Colombia 2-1, but conflicts with 2-2. Fair probability is near the high-60s to low-70s.
- Colombia team total over 1.5: visible market around 39%; model fair estimate around 44-47%. This is a booster, not insurance, because it only helps the Colombia 2+ branches.