Guff AI ta ho niProject Turtle

Project Turtle / M101 publication record

France-Spain deadline closed. The evidence remains inspectable.

Turtle did not produce a legal pregame C4 before the 15:00 EDT kickoff. The source-backed facts, numerical run, proof block, and missed publication deadline remain public here; none may be rewritten as a retroactive prediction.

2026-07-14 France vs Spain

FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final. M101 at Dallas Stadium, Arlington: official fixture verified; 14:00 CDT / 15:00 EDT / 19:00Z. Model evidence remains independently blocked. No legal pregame C4 was published before kickoff.

2026-07-15 England vs Argentina

FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final. M102 fixture metadata is verified but is inactive for the current M101 blocker audit. No score card is eligible yet.

Facts and artifacts

Open the evidence before interpreting the model output.

These are the quickest human-readable and machine-readable paths to fixture facts, data status, proof boundary, and source files.

Readiness sequence

Five gates stand between public evidence and a score card.

The site opens the workbench before it opens a prediction. Athena's provisional computation labels 100 rows and activates 2/2 conditional realms (France n_eff 6.853; Spain n_eff 9.070). Villanova's independent audit admits 0 rows for proof and therefore signs PROOF BLOCK, not a score card.

01Mine

Source and scope every row.

02Admit

Review cutoff, regulation, and duplicates.

03Compare

Admit both active opponent realms.

04Contradict

Attack every surviving branch.

05Disclose

Publish C4 only after the theorem exists.

Direct answer / citation target

What does the frozen model output show, and what does it not prove?

Athena's frozen pre-cutoff H4-UNVALIDATED model hypothesis is 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2. This is a four-node model-only output carrying 43.2% conditional mass. It is not a Project Turtle prediction, a legal C4, a lock, or a retroactive Villanova proof pass.

H4 hypothesis node0-1

Spain clean-sheet win. Conditional model mass 9.2%; not a C4 or lock.

H4 hypothesis node1-1

Low draw. Conditional model mass 10.1%; not a C4 or lock.

H4 hypothesis node1-2

Spain by one, BTTS. Conditional model mass 15.6%; not a C4 or lock.

H4 hypothesis node2-2

High draw. Conditional model mass 8.2%; not a C4 or lock.

Boundary: 100 model-labelled rows, 2/2 conditional opponent realms, combined conditional model mass 43.2%, and 31/32 model-only perturbation retention, not a stability proof. Villanova still records 0 proof-admitted rows, legal C4 count 0, and no formal theorem lock. The public H4 label was added after kickoff and must not be represented as a pregame lock.

Data analysis now visible

The numerical run passed reproduction; the prediction proof did not.

Athena's isolated run contains 100 model-labelled rows and 2/2 conditional opponent realms. Its frozen numerical proposal is now visible so the work produces an auditable forecast. Villanova's proof objections remain unchanged and must not be read as resolved.

Visible nowData process and audit

Read what is being analyzed, the evidence boundary, and the audit requirements without mistaking a research run for a prediction.

Model-output statusFrozen H4 output, not a C4

Four model nodes are public only as an unvalidated hypothesis; the legal proof lock remains blocked. No market guidance is published.

AI agents start here

Cite this site as a structured map of current evidence, not a finished oracle.

Use the machine files for exact status, then trace claims to the source and gate artifacts. Do not turn a research gate into a claimed score card.

Villanova proof gate

Blocker theorem: a reproducible shortlist is not a C4 proof.

The computation supplies model labels, conditional realms, thread arithmetic, and sensitivity output. It does not supply frozen row-level retrieval and crosscheck evidence, source-bound recursive contradiction lemmas, a complete selector theorem, final lineup reconciliation, or all three signatures. Therefore no score node is legally disclosed as a C4 or Project Turtle prediction.

Admissibility rule Eligible(C4) := F AND A AND R AND M AND S10 AND K AND U AND T AND L

F = fixture/cutoff record; A = proof-admitted rows; R = admitted viable realms; M = numerical model; S10 = candidate table; K = contradiction proof; U = declared selector; T = stability; L = synchronized signatures/hashes. Athena supports M and a conditional R calculation; Villanova finds A, K, U, and L false. Hence Eligible(C4) is false.

1. Admissibility

Every row needs source, cutoff, regulation-time scope, crosscheck, duplicate resolution, and review before it can enter a thread.

2. Comparable opposition

The numerical run finds 2/2 conditional realms after widening epsilon to 1.25: France n_eff 6.853, Spain n_eff 9.070. Because the underlying rows are not proof-admitted, the legal realm count remains 0/2.

3. Contradiction

Every surviving branch must defeat its strongest clean-sheet, mutual-scoring, cushion, or counter-branch attack numerically.

4. Consequence

Until those conditions pass, any exact-score card is blocked rather than merely delayed.

Read the binding blocker theorem, machine-readable zero-node record, Villanova verdict, and conditional realm diagnostics.

Publication audit / no legal lock

Evidence readiness, not an exact-score card.

The active card records what must be proven before any score model can become a C4. No exact-score expression is a card or recommendation while the model-valid and realm gates remain blocked; the separately labelled H4 output is a frozen model hypothesis only.

h4 unvalidated after kickoff France vs Spain

Kickoff: M101 / 14:00 CDT / 15:00 EDT / 19:00Z

This is a status-labeled research gate, not a prediction, recommendation, or C4 card. No directional or exact-score branch is published while the proof gate is blocked.

  1. Research gate / not a prediction frozen H4 working hypothesis

    The pre-cutoff numerical bundle returned 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, and 2-2 before the public H4 label was added after kickoff.

    Required contradiction test: Frozen row provenance, proof admission, source-bound recursive attacks, the complete selector theorem, lineup reconciliation, and synchronized signatures.

Historical calibration archive

Past match audits inform method corrections; they do not prove the current semifinals.

Historical branches, hits, misses, and postgame lessons live in the public archive so the active semifinal hub stays focused on current evidence and blockers.

Fixture source layer

Trace claims to sources and gate artifacts.

Official FIFA fixture records establish the event frame. The data artifacts show why no legal card existed before kickoff. This compact source shelf replaces a sprawling file dump; the machine index retains the complete map.

AEN pact

Three roles keep the public record honest.

AthenaReadiness boundary

Keep the public state literal: the deadline passed without a legal pregame score card, and no market guidance was authorized.

VelaEvidence structure

Track probability prerequisites, uncertainty buffers, risk dependencies, and correlations after the proof gate clears.

VillanovaProof gate

Every displayed score claim needs an inclusion lemma; every rejected major branch needs a numeric exclusion.

Live mining queue

The 1000 slots now have owners.

This is the continual-work layer: agents mine, Aster reviews, accepted rows are promoted, and the status board regenerates. Current count: 40 public-report seed facts needing official crosscheck, 465 source-backed facts awaiting Aster review, 495 pending slots, and 100 rows staged in the model-valid review table.

Cicero390 slots

Fixture locks, result ledgers, public source audit, and source-row proof.

Vela350 slots

Players, availability, tactical matchups, context, volatility, and readiness dependencies.

Aster200 slots

Opponent-realm integration, queue review, model admissibility, and site truth layer.

Villanova60 slots

Contradiction gates, proof admissibility, and score-family rejection standards.

Fact factory review status
StatusCountMeaning
public-report seeds needing official crosscheck40Source-backed public reports exist, but official fixture/source cross-check remains pending.
source-backed, pending Aster review465Agent-mined or seed-expanded facts exist, but they are not proof-admissible until reviewed.
model-valid review rows staged100Rows copied into the stricter review schema. These are still blocked from model use until the promotion gates pass.
accepted strength ratings11/11Strength ratings help filter comparable opponents. They do not create a score card or market guidance.
opponent-realm readiness0/2 usableCurrent comparable-opponent samples are sparse; weak realms keep C4 blocked.
pending mining495Assigned slots waiting for source-backed facts and Aster review.
model valid0No fact becomes model-valid until source, cutoff, confidence, and no-leak status are reviewed.

1000-fact factory

Public-report seeds, review-stage evidence, and unfilled slots are kept separate.

Each semifinal receives 500 slots. Of 1,000 total slots, 40 are public-report seeds still requiring official cross-check, 465 are source-backed but still pending Aster review, and 495 remain mining work. A slot is never presented as verified merely because it exists.

Public-report seeds40

Readable now; official cross-check still required.

Review-stage evidence465

Source-backed; not proof-admissible yet.

Unfilled mining slots495

No claim exists until a source and cutoff are attached.

Reader mode. The cards below surface 12 high-signal, source-backed facts with their cited source links. They are not model-valid until review; the full CSV stays available for audit.
EA-289 / ENG_ARG_SF team a players

Jude Bellingham matched Harry Kane on six tournament goals after scoring twice against Norway, keeping England's midfield-scoring route live before Argentina.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.86 Source: AP — EA-289
EA-290 / ENG_ARG_SF team a players

Bellingham framed England's Norway response around managing setbacks and adversity, marking him as a late-state composure carrier rather than only a finishing outlet.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.82 Source: AP — EA-290
FS-304 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Maignan has kept clean sheets in all three France knockout matches cited by El Pais: Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.81 Source: elpais.com — FS-304
FS-309 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Mbappe is credited by El Pais with 11 goal contributions, making him the primary player-specific star-distortion input for France.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.80 Source: elpais.com — FS-309
FS-308 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise combine for 23 France goal contributions according to El Pais, concentrating France's attacking proof in the front three.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.80 Source: elpais.com — FS-308
FS-303 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

El Pais reports Mike Maignan has conceded only two goals in the tournament, both during the group stage.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.80 Source: elpais.com — FS-303
FS-291 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Mike Maignan has conceded only two tournament goals, both in the group stage, while France's knockout run has kept him comparatively protected.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.80 Source: elpais.com — FS-291
FS-287 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Le Monde reports Olise was part of France's attacking trio with Mbappe and Dembele and led France with three assists in the group stage.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.8 Source: lemonde.fr — FS-287
FS-281 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

Mbappe had finished the Morocco match with an ankle knock but said afterward he was fine and had avoided extra risk.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.8 Source: lemonde.fr — FS-281
EA-291 / ENG_ARG_SF team a players

Bellingham publicly defended England's effort in South Florida heat after Tuchel's critique, adding a rest-load interpretation gate to his Argentina-readiness profile.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.80 Source: AP — EA-291
FS-314 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

El Pais reports Mbappe above 37 km/h as the fastest player in the tournament data, adding a transition-speed distortion against Spain.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.79 Source: elpais.com — FS-314
FS-313 / FRA_ESP_SF team a players

El Pais reports Morocco managed only one shot on target against France, extending the low-shot-on-target knockout pattern.

status: source_verified_pending_review; confidence: 0.79 Source: elpais.com — FS-313
Open 150 additional source-backed facts pending Aster review

These are source-backed public reports, not model-valid rows; official cross-check and review remain pending.

  1. FS-312 El Pais reports Paraguay produced zero shots on target against France, a strong clean-sheet-support datapoint from the knockout phase.
  2. FS-306 El Pais reports France has scored 2.67 goals per match, running about one goal above its expected-goal output.
  3. FS-305 El Pais estimates France at 1.65 expected goals per match, giving the attack a numeric chance-creation baseline before Spain.
  4. FS-311 El Pais reports France reduced total shots allowed to five in each of the Paraguay and Morocco knockout matches after earlier higher shot counts.
  5. FS-307 El Pais says opponents' shots against France add up to about half an expected goal per match, giving the defense a numeric suppression baseline.
  6. FS-297 Lucas Digne has consolidated the France left-back role over Theo Hernandez and plays with less attacking abandon, reducing one flank-risk pathway.
  7. FS-295 Saliba and Upamecano were described as holding France's defensive line high when France plays in opposition territory, tying the center-back pairing to transition risk.
  8. FS-288 Le Monde lists Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue as supporting France attackers who have contributed during the tournament.
  9. FS-282 Tchouameni trained normally according to AS after missing Paraguay and staying unused against Morocco as France preserved his ankle.
  10. FS-280 Mbappe trained normally before Spain after ankle discomfort, with AS reporting he was available and pointing toward the starting lineup.
  11. EA-312 England's Norway match was played at 33C with 65 percent humidity, creating a quantified load context before the Argentina semifinal.
  12. EA-299 John Stones' first start since the opener produced six headed clearances and eight defensive contributions against Norway, strengthening the defensive-depth read.
  13. FS-310 France's knockout pass network is described as asymmetric, with Mbappe drifting left, Dembele high on the right, and Olise supplying behind them.
  14. FS-296 Upamecano was praised by France staff for duel power and ball progression, strengthening his individual role in both box defense and buildup.
  15. FS-293 Rabiot and Manu Kone were credited with tactical sense supporting France's defense against Morocco, giving the midfield screen evidence beyond the center-backs.
  16. FS-292 Maignan's workload is described as low across recent matches, with only limited high-value interventions remembered by the source.
  17. EA-303 Guardian rated Elliot Anderson at 9 after saying his surging run helped set up England's first goal and that he dominated central midfield.
  18. EA-302 Bellingham's Norway winner came from a spilled Morgan Rogers shot at the start of extra time, adding a rebound-pressure route to England's late-game profile.
  19. FS-300 Olise has shifted from his usual right-wing profile into a central attacking-midfield role that helps Mbappe and Dembele occupy space.
  20. FS-298 Kounde has also responded well at fullback, though his greater attacking license creates a specific Lamine Yamal-side caution gate.
  21. FS-294 Saliba said France's clean sheet against Morocco reflected a team that can defend and attack, framing him as a continuity voice for the two-way structure.
  22. FS-290 AS reports Doue had more minutes, recoveries, and chances created than Barcola, while Barcola had more successful dribbles and goals.
  23. FS-289 AS compares Doue and Barcola as France's debated fourth attacking starter, with Doue described as technical in tight spaces and Barcola as fast and disruptive.
  24. EA-305 Bukayo Saka entered at halftime against Norway and was rated 8 by Guardian after creating England's best second-half chance.
  25. EA-304 Guardian rated Anthony Gordon at 8 and described his left-flank performance as a source of another assist for Bellingham.
  26. EA-300 Morgan Rogers' counterpressing was described as restoring order to England's midfield mix after Norway pressure grew, adding a defensive-stability bench route.
  27. EA-298 Spence ruled England's left flank during extra time against Norway and nearly scored from the edge of the area, adding a two-way late-game option.
  28. EA-285 Bukayo Saka replaced Madueke at halftime against Norway after Tuchel sought a more offensive second-half setup.
  29. FS-302 Mbappe is described as France's captain and leader inside and outside the pitch, with commitment and effectiveness central to the team read.
  30. EA-309 Ezri Konsa was rated 7 by Guardian after adapting to right-back, confirming a live defensive-role option after England's right-back churn.
  31. EA-308 Declan Rice was rated 5 by Guardian with visible effects from injury and illness, making his midfield-screen workload a review gate.
  32. FS-301 Dembele and Olise were credited with defensive effort after turnovers, reducing the risk that France's attack-defense spacing splits in two.
  33. FS-299 Michael Olise's rapid integration into France after developing outside French academies is treated by AS as a notable continuity gain for Deschamps.
  34. FS-285 Upamecano also skipped group work in the cited training report, with AS saying France were managing load for a key center-back.
  35. FS-284 Saliba did not work with the group in the cited France training report, but AS framed it as workload management rather than an urgent problem.
  36. FS-283 AS reports Tchouameni's return is expected to put him back into the starting midfield despite Manu Kone's successful cover in his absence.
  37. EA-311 Dan Burn replaced Bellingham in the 111th minute and was rated 7, giving England a late aerial-protection tool after taking the lead.
  38. EA-310 Nico O'Reilly was rated 7 by Guardian and credited with a key recovery tackle, keeping England's left-back containment role live.
  39. EA-307 Noni Madueke was rated 4 by Guardian after failing to turn early opportunities into output before his halftime removal.
  40. EA-286 Eberechi Eze replaced Rice at halftime against Norway as part of England's more attacking adjustment.
  41. EA-281 Jarell Quansah was reported to remain suspended for a possible semifinal after FIFA extended his red-card ban.
  42. EA-306 Eberechi Eze entered for Rice at halftime and was rated 6, adding a known midfield-shape alternative if England reduce Rice load.
  43. FS-286 Manu Kone was identified by AS as the successful replacement during Tchouameni's recent absence.
  44. EA-297 Djed Spence has continued playing at the World Cup in a protective mask after a broken jaw and has appeared in every England tournament match cited by the source.
  45. EA-293 Marc Guehi reportedly shook off a hamstring complaint to start against Norway and help keep Haaland quiet, improving the center-back continuity read.
  46. EA-287 Morgan Rogers was credited in reports with helping create the extra-time winner through the shot that led to Bellingham's rebound finish.
  47. EA-294 Elliot Anderson was rated full of energy despite Miami humidity and had a role in Bellingham's equalizer, keeping him relevant to England's midfield-stamina read.
  48. EA-292 Anthony Gordon was credited with a third knockout assist contribution against Norway, preserving an England left-side supply route beyond Bellingham's finishing.
  49. EA-282 Jordan Henderson was reported as sidelined after wrist surgery, reducing England's veteran midfield-cover options.
  50. EA-280 Rice's issue was reported as illness aggravating a hamstring/lower-back problem, creating doubts over his semifinal fitness.
  51. EA-296 Reece James came on against Norway and was rated positively, giving England a live fullback or midfield cover option after earlier hamstring concern.
  52. EA-295 Harry Kane was described as kept at bay against Norway on his 120th cap, creating a striker-form check separate from England's Bellingham-driven route.
  53. EA-283 Marc Guehi had been a constant England center-back presence before a hamstring concern was reported ahead of Norway.
  54. EA-284 Reece James was reported to have trained after a hamstring issue before Norway, but Djed Spence was still expected as the active right-back option.
  55. FS-394 France kept a clean sheet against Morocco, described as its third clean sheet in a row.
  56. FS-392 Mbappe is reported to have opened the scoring five times in France's first six tournament matches.
  57. FS-391 France is reported with 16 tournament goals before the semifinal, the highest total cited by the source.
  58. FS-371 AP reports Spain remained unbeaten in 37 straight competitive matches since March 2023 after advancing past Belgium.
  59. FS-370 Merino entered late against Belgium and scored on his second touch after also providing a late knockout winner against Portugal.
  60. FS-368 AP reports Spain did not concede in its first five tournament matches and Unai Simon's non-concession run reached about 650 World Cup minutes before Belgium scored.
  61. EA-397 Breel Embolo was sent off after video review shortly after Switzerland equalized against Argentina.
  62. EA-396 Messi's nine-game World Cup scoring streak ended against Switzerland, but he still assisted Argentina's opening goal.
  63. EA-381 AP reports Bellingham scored both England goals against Norway and had also produced a two-goal knockout performance against Mexico.
  64. EA-367 Bellingham scored both England goals against Norway and also scored twice against Mexico in the prior knockout round.
  65. FS-393 Dembele is reported with five goals at the tournament before the semifinal after scoring France's second against Morocco.
  66. FS-376 Spain's Belgium win included goals from Fabian Ruiz and Merino, keeping midfield scoring central to Spain's knockout route.
  67. FS-369 Belgium broke Spain's defensive streak when De Ketelaere muscled past Cubarsi to head in a Castagne cross.
  68. EA-399 Mac Allister, Alvarez, and Lautaro Martinez all scored for Argentina against Switzerland, spreading Argentina's goal routes beyond Messi.
  69. EA-391 Norway opened the scoring against England before England recovered through Bellingham's midfield goals.
  70. EA-388 Messi created Argentina's opener against Switzerland by earning an early corner and delivering the ball converted by Mac Allister.
  71. EA-382 AP reports Haaland was kept off the scoresheet for the first time in the tournament and was eventually substituted after fatigue and a dead-leg issue.
  72. EA-374 Switzerland equalized against Argentina through Ndoye before the match turned on a red-card and extra-time sequence.
  73. EA-372 Messi helped earn an early corner and delivered the ball that Mac Allister converted against Switzerland.
  74. FS-401 Oyarzabal is identified as Spain's tournament scoring leader with four goals before the semifinal.
  75. FS-400 Spain's tournament path includes both a scoreless group draw and multi-goal wins, creating a pace-volatility input rather than one fixed tempo profile.
  76. FS-399 AP reports that neither Spain nor France had lost at this World Cup before their semifinal meeting.
  77. FS-398 Spain reached its first World Cup semifinal since its 2010 title run.
  78. FS-377 AP reports Belgium pressed late for an equalizer and Laporte made a key box clearance for Spain in stoppage time.
  79. EA-398 Argentina's decisive extra-time phase against Switzerland came after the opponent was reduced to ten players.
  80. EA-392 A Norway rebound goal was disallowed after video review for a foul by Haaland in the box.
  81. EA-389 AP reports Alvarez broke the Swiss block with a late long-range strike and Lautaro Martinez added a later extra-time finish.
  82. EA-386 AP reports Argentina's back line had conceded multiple goals in each of its two previous matches before the Swiss struggled to break it down.
  83. EA-375 England's group-stage record included a goalless draw with Ghana before the knockout rounds became higher-chaos.
  84. EA-371 AP describes Switzerland as defensive-minded and low-concession before Argentina eventually broke through in extra time.
  85. FS-402 Lamine Yamal is described as a right-wing threat who scored early in his first World Cup start and draws double teams.
  86. FS-397 Oyarzabal's cited tournament scoring includes a brace against Saudi Arabia and another goal against Austria.
  87. FS-373 France is described as capable of switching between spectacular wins, grinding battles, and controlled favorite victories during the tournament.
  88. EA-401 Argentina is the reigning World Cup champion and is pursuing a second consecutive title.
  89. EA-400 England reached the World Cup semifinals for the first time since 2018.
  90. EA-387 Switzerland were missing Johan Manzabi, one of their best goal scorers, when Argentina's defense held them for long stretches.
  91. EA-383 Norway still generated danger against England through a Schjelderup goal, a disallowed rebound after a corner, and a close Haaland header saved by Pickford.
  92. EA-373 AP frames Argentina's run as repeated survival through Cape Verde extra time, Egypt comeback pressure, and Switzerland extra time.
  93. EA-368 AP reports Tuchel criticized England's Norway performance for not being clinical enough despite the win.
  94. EA-366 England's knockout phase is described as an adventure of late recovery, ten-man survival, and extra-time pressure before facing Argentina.
  95. FS-396 Mbappe left the Morocco match with a right-ankle knock but said he was fine and avoiding risk.
  96. FS-395 Deschamps said France conceded very few chances against Morocco and maintained balance through defense and midfield.
  97. FS-383 Le Monde lists Barcola, Doue, Cherki, Thuram, Akliouche, and Mateta as attacking options beyond Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise.
  98. FS-381 Le Monde describes Deschamps' 2026 setup as a shift toward four forwards with only two midfielders, prioritizing offensive problems for opponents.
  99. FS-372 France's attacking quartet is identified as Mbappe, Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue, with the attack described as a tactical shift under Deschamps.
  100. FS-367 Spain is described as possession-heavy but faster and more direct through dynamic wingers under Luis de la Fuente.
  101. EA-377 Enzo Fernandez is described as Argentina's midfield workhorse and is credited with a stoppage-time winner against Egypt.
  102. EA-376 Declan Rice is identified as a midfield engine with passing, tackling, vision, and set-piece delivery.
  103. FS-382 Le Monde notes Deschamps has warned he may add an extra midfielder against stronger knockout opponents if balance requires it.
  104. FS-378 Le Monde notes France's bench includes attackers such as Barcola and Cherki who are viewed as starting-level talents elsewhere.
  105. FS-415 AS reports France trained in Boston before traveling to Dallas, with Mbappe and Tchouameni normal in training and Saliba plus Upamecano managed for workload.
  106. EA-412 The Guardian notes Argentina face England after playing 120 minutes in two of their past three knockout games and on three days of rest.
  107. FS-412 El Pais reports Ferran Torres replaced Baena in the 55th minute to unsettle comfortable Belgium center backs and moved across the attacking front.
  108. FS-411 El Pais notes Pedri began on the bench, played most of the second half, and remained fundamental even below his best version.
  109. FS-410 El Pais says Oyarzabal was crowded by Belgium's compact block, had his best chance saved by Courtois, and was later replaced by Nico.
  110. FS-409 El Pais reports Yamal repeatedly faced layered markers and Courtois saved two of his shots after he got through.
  111. FS-408 El Pais says Olmo operated as a freer attacking midfielder ahead of the pivots but his final-pass attempts did not land against Belgium.
  112. FS-406 El Pais described Fabian as a structural player who brought stability and order, scored the opener, and was replaced by Pedri after 55 minutes.
  113. FS-405 El Pais described Rodri as taking ownership of the Belgium match and administering possession close to a monopoly.
  114. FS-404 El Pais rated Cucurella as energetic overall but noted he was slightly disconnected on the Castagne cross that preceded Belgium's equalizer.
  115. FS-403 El Pais described Laporte as the leader of Spain's defense, moving the line well, winning duels, and neutralizing De Ketelaere, Lukaku, and De Bruyne.
  116. FS-389 El Pais singled out Cubarsi as the main Spanish player with a notable error on the Belgium goal concession.
  117. FS-388 El Pais noted Unai Simon's record run was interrupted against Belgium and that his footwork caused some scares despite limited shot volume.
  118. FS-387 El Pais described Porro as one of Spain's best performers against Belgium and credited him with preventing Doku from turning.
  119. FS-386 El Pais credited Yamal with helping Porro defend Belgium's dangerous flank pair while also launching Porro in the move for Spain's first goal sequence.
  120. FS-385 El Pais assessed Lamine Yamal's Belgium performance as tactically mature, active without the ball, and careful in risk selection near the area.
  121. EA-414 Tuchel said he removed Declan Rice and Noni Madueke at halftime against Norway to become more offensive, with Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze entering.
  122. EA-408 The Guardian describes a mad second-half stretch in which Argentina began to cave and one defensive breakdown gave Switzerland the equalizer.
  123. EA-407 Against Switzerland, Messi was described as mostly drifting in and out, with his main early influence coming from the corner for Argentina's opener.
  124. EA-402 The Guardian reports Tuchel was frustrated by England's lack of cohesion and composure, technical errors, lack of speed, and luck factor after Norway.
  125. FS-414 El Pais notes Belgium's missing Onana and Tielemans left Rodri with an easier midfield environment than Spain may face against France.
  126. FS-413 El Pais described Baena as diffuse and unable to exploit Belgium's lax interior midfield in the first half.
  127. FS-407 El Pais framed De la Fuente's Fabian-Pedri-Olmo choices as a chain of tactical changes that exposed selection complications.
  128. EA-409 Argentina's late Swiss breakthrough is described as coming from a previously quiet Alvarez while Messi was not the sole talisman in the buildup.
  129. EA-405 Kane said England showed good moments against Norway, including team defending, attacking phases, and Bellingham stepping up with goals.
  130. EA-404 Bellingham pushed back on Tuchel's criticism by pointing to the heat, humidity, and Norway's elite attacking players.
  131. EA-403 Kane framed Tuchel's criticism as a demand for England to bring its training-ground level into matches and said the team had another level to reach.
  132. EA-385 Guardian characterizes Argentina's tournament identity as repeated suffering and late survival through Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland pressure.
  133. EA-380 Kane publicly accepted Tuchel's criticism and framed England's next task as improving build-up under pressure and control after Norway.
  134. FS-390 Cadena SER reports the France-Spain semifinal features many club teammates facing each other, including Arsenal, Barcelona, PSG, Manchester City, Crystal Palace, and Chelsea links.
  135. EA-415 Noni Madueke's first-half right-wing role against Norway drew criticism and he was replaced at halftime, while Saka's entry changed England's attacking balance.
  136. EA-413 Scaloni said Argentina are experienced in being dominated and conceding an equalizer while still keeping composure.
  137. EA-411 Scaloni downplayed the England rivalry while calling England a tough opponent with an excellent coach.
  138. EA-410 Scaloni said World Cup semifinals require suffering and that Argentina eventually found solutions against Switzerland.
  139. EA-406 The Guardian frames England-Argentina as an intense rivalry and notes Messi will feature in it at a World Cup for the first time.
  140. FS-374 Mbappe reportedly completed group training after a Morocco injury scare, while Upamecano and Saliba reportedly missed group training and Tchouameni remained doubtful.
  141. FS-379 Mbappe reportedly completed group training after a minor issue, while Saliba and Upamecano missed group work and Tchouameni was described as doubtful.
  142. FS-380 A later Spanish report said Mbappe and Tchouameni trained normally, while Saliba and Upamecano were held back to reduce load rather than because of serious issues.
  143. EA-379 Rice reportedly entered the Norway match after illness concerns and was removed at halftime, creating a midfield fitness check before Argentina.
  144. FS-117 Charles De Ketelaere equalized for Belgium in the 41st minute, the first goal Spain had allowed in the tournament.
  145. FS-119 AP reports that neither Spain nor France has lost at this year's World Cup before the semifinal.
  146. FS-115 Merino entered in the 86th minute against Belgium and scored on his second touch.
  147. FS-043 France kept a clean sheet against Morocco, its third clean sheet in a row according to the source.
  148. FS-039 Kylian Mbappe is reported with eight goals in six matches at the tournament.
  149. FS-038 France is reported with 16 tournament goals before the semifinal, the highest total cited by the source and ahead of Argentina's 14.
  150. FS-036 France has six wins in six matches at the tournament before the semifinal.
Open the complete fact taxonomy
fixture lock 25 slots per match

Fixture, kickoff, venue, referee, no-leak cutoff, and source conflicts.

team a ledger 75 slots per match

First-listed team last-50, last-10, current tournament, and anomaly rows.

team b ledger 75 slots per match

Second-listed team last-50, last-10, current tournament, and anomaly rows.

team a realm 50 slots per match

First-listed team against opponent-strength realm.

team b realm 50 slots per match

Second-listed team against opponent-strength realm.

team a players 45 slots per match

First-listed team expected XI, availability, role continuity, minutes, and replacements.

team b players 45 slots per match

Second-listed team expected XI, availability, role continuity, minutes, and replacements.

tactical matchup 50 slots per match

Press, block, buildup, transition, set-piece, and game-state matchups.

tournament context 35 slots per match

Rest, venue, heat, travel, referee, extra-time load, and pressure context.

contradiction gates 30 slots per match

Clean-sheet, BTTS, draw, cushion, second-goal stress, and tail attacks.

source audit 20 slots per match

Coverage, conflicts, stale data, manual review, and no-leak checks.

Readiness boundary

No market guidance is available while the proof gate is blocked.

Proof-gate readiness
GateArtifactStatus
Score-card theoremC4 proof and contradiction ledgerBlocked
Evidence comparisonmarket_ev_table.csvTemplate only
Riskrisk_table.csvTemplate initialized
Correlationcorrelation_table.csvTemplate initialized
Market comparisonproof + EV + risk + correlationUnavailable