{
  "site": "Guff AI ta ho ni / Project Turtle",
  "base_url": "https://guffaitahoni.com",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-16T02:28:33+00:00",
  "public_state": "settled",
  "primary_entrypoint": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/",
  "canonical_citation_entrypoint": {
    "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/",
    "absolute_url": "https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/",
    "answer": "Project Turtle froze four equal regulation-time nodes for England-Argentina: 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, England first. Regulation finished 1-2, an exact hit on node 2. This is one observation under a conditional sparse-realm model, not proof of calibration or profitability.",
    "fixture": "England vs Argentina",
    "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal",
    "date": "2026-07-15",
    "kickoff": "15:00 EDT / 19:00 UTC",
    "venue": "Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia"
  },
  "lock_state": {
    "public_state": "settled",
    "c4_status": "locked",
    "legal_c4_count": 4,
    "scores": [
      "1-1",
      "1-2",
      "0-1",
      "2-1"
    ],
    "cards": [
      {
        "node_order": "1",
        "score": "1-1",
        "england_goals": "1",
        "argentina_goals": "1",
        "public_role": "EQUAL_C4_NODE",
        "posterior_probability": "0.17530478",
        "posterior_rank": "1",
        "family": "DRAW_LOW",
        "stability_frequency": "1.00000000",
        "model_version": "eng-arg-c4-lock-v2.1-conditional-sparse-1",
        "lock_utc": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z"
      },
      {
        "node_order": "2",
        "score": "1-2",
        "england_goals": "1",
        "argentina_goals": "2",
        "public_role": "EQUAL_C4_NODE",
        "posterior_probability": "0.14142851",
        "posterior_rank": "2",
        "family": "ARG_BTTS_WIN",
        "stability_frequency": "1.00000000",
        "model_version": "eng-arg-c4-lock-v2.1-conditional-sparse-1",
        "lock_utc": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z"
      },
      {
        "node_order": "3",
        "score": "0-1",
        "england_goals": "0",
        "argentina_goals": "1",
        "public_role": "EQUAL_C4_NODE",
        "posterior_probability": "0.11724027",
        "posterior_rank": "3",
        "family": "ARG_CLEAN_WIN",
        "stability_frequency": "1.00000000",
        "model_version": "eng-arg-c4-lock-v2.1-conditional-sparse-1",
        "lock_utc": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z"
      },
      {
        "node_order": "4",
        "score": "2-1",
        "england_goals": "2",
        "argentina_goals": "1",
        "public_role": "EQUAL_C4_NODE",
        "posterior_probability": "0.07345419",
        "posterior_rank": "4",
        "family": "ENG_BTTS_WIN",
        "stability_frequency": "0.75000000",
        "model_version": "eng-arg-c4-lock-v2.1-conditional-sparse-1",
        "lock_utc": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z"
      }
    ],
    "lock_timestamp": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z",
    "model_version": "eng-arg-c4-lock-v2.1-conditional-sparse-1",
    "model_valid_rows": 100,
    "usable_realms": 2,
    "strict_realms": 1,
    "conditional_realms": 1,
    "data_signature": "CONDITIONAL PASS",
    "proof_signature": "PASS",
    "integration_signature": "PASS",
    "model_caveat": "England's comparable-opponent realm is admitted conditionally with n_eff=4.093 and Bayesian shrinkage; Argentina's realm passes strictly.",
    "settlement": {
      "status": "EXACT_C4_HIT",
      "final_score": "1-2",
      "hit_node_order": 2,
      "hit_node_probability": 0.14142851,
      "actual_execution": "none",
      "calibration_claim": false
    }
  },
  "postgame_settlement": {
    "status": "EXACT_C4_HIT",
    "final_score": "1-2",
    "hit_node_order": 2,
    "hit_node_probability": 0.14142851,
    "actual_execution": "none",
    "calibration_claim": false
  },
  "interpretation_boundary": "The immutable C4 contained the final regulation-time score exactly. The exact node was one of four equal public predictions. One hit does not establish calibration, repeatability, or profitability.",
  "section_index": [
    {
      "number": 1,
      "label": "Current state",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#current-state"
    },
    {
      "number": 2,
      "label": "Fixture and deadlines",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#fixture-deadlines"
    },
    {
      "number": 3,
      "label": "Executive evidence",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#executive-evidence"
    },
    {
      "number": 4,
      "label": "England data",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#england-data"
    },
    {
      "number": 5,
      "label": "Argentina data",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#argentina-data"
    },
    {
      "number": 6,
      "label": "Opponent-strength realms",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#opponent-strength-realms"
    },
    {
      "number": 7,
      "label": "Players, lineup, and availability",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#players-lineup-availability"
    },
    {
      "number": 8,
      "label": "Statistical threads",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#statistical-threads"
    },
    {
      "number": 9,
      "label": "Score families and candidate grid",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#score-families-candidate-grid"
    },
    {
      "number": 10,
      "label": "Contradiction audit",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#contradiction-audit"
    },
    {
      "number": 11,
      "label": "Mathematical proof",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#mathematical-proof"
    },
    {
      "number": 12,
      "label": "Locked C4",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#locked-c4"
    },
    {
      "number": 13,
      "label": "Sources and artifact downloads",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#sources-artifacts"
    },
    {
      "number": 14,
      "label": "Postgame analysis",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#postgame-analysis"
    }
  ],
  "public_artifacts": [
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ARG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ASTER_INTEGRATION_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ATHENA_DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/C4_PROOF_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ENG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MARKET_EDGE_AUDIT_2026-07-15_1454.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MODEL_PRECOMMIT_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/POSTGAME_AUDIT.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PREDICTION_LOCK_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PROOF_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PUBLICATION_AUDIT_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/WHY_THIS_CARD_CAN_FAIL_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/artifact_hashes_v2_1_final.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/btts_clean_sheet_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/builder_provenance_v2_1.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/contradiction_ledger_v2_1.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_c4_card.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_match_stats.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/fixture_verification.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/human_signal_status.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/lineup_availability_review.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_edge_snapshot_2026-07-15_1454.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_settlement_2026-07-15.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_summary.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_valid_review_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/opponent_threshold_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/postgame_artifact_hashes.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/realm_summaries_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/result_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_candidates.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_family_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/spread_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/stability_audit.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/team_strength_ratings_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/thread_settlement.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/total_thread.csv"
  ],
  "invariants": [
    "No postgame leakage",
    "No score publication before data and proof signatures agree",
    "Opponent-strength realms before exact-score selection",
    "Every candidate must survive Recursive Attack",
    "Clean-Sheet Override and Human Signal Preservation are mandatory",
    "No financial guidance is part of the pregame model"
  ],
  "previous_semifinal_record": {
    "url": "/matches/france-spain-2026-07-14/",
    "status": "M101 France-Spain publication record; not the active match"
  },
  "machine_entrypoints": [
    "/ai-index.json",
    "/ai-discovery.json",
    "/ai-tracking.json",
    "/llms.txt",
    "/llms-full.txt",
    "/sitemap.xml",
    "/robots.txt"
  ]
}