# Round 14 AEN Gate Report

Updated: 2026-07-13T01:55:00+00:00

This report consolidates the Round 14 sidecar work from Cicero, Vela, Villanova, and Athena. It is a pre-lock report. It does not publish a C4 card and does not authorize score or market guidance.

## Verdict

The semifinal workbench remains **not proof-lockable**.

Accepted strength ratings are now usable for opponent-realm filtering, and every staged ledger row has an opponent rating joined. That is progress. It is not enough for a score theorem, because the regulation-score, official-crosscheck, duplicate-resolution, and model-valid gates are still blocked.

## Agent Findings

### Cicero: official crosscheck

Cicero reviewed all 12 rows in `official_crosscheck_work_order.csv`.

- Rows marked `standard_result_scope_pending_crosscheck` need official or reconciled proof that the recorded score is regulation-time compatible.
- Rows marked `extended_time_final_score` or `extended_time_plus_penalties` need separate sourced 90-minute regulation scores before any regulation exact-score use.
- Spain-Belgium and Argentina-Switzerland duplicate clusters must be reconciled before model use.
- AP or match reports can support reconciliation, but the preferred source hierarchy remains official FIFA match centre first, national federation second, and AP/Reuters fallback.

### Vela: opponent-realm expansion

Vela reviewed the comparable-opponent realm layer.

- `FRA_ESP_SF` France vs Spain realm has one current target-realm row, `FS-093`, but it is extra-time/penalty-scope blocked and not model-usable.
- `FRA_ESP_SF` Spain vs France realm has no epsilon `0.75` rows and only three widened rows, including duplicate Spain-Belgium evidence.
- `ENG_ARG_SF` England vs Argentina realm has `EA-094` as a strong rating proxy, but it is still partial and pending official crosscheck.
- `ENG_ARG_SF` Argentina vs England realm currently depends on duplicate Switzerland rows that are extra-time-scope blocked.

The next useful mining is not more decoration. It is regulation-time, official-crosschecked comparable-opponent rows in the target strength bands.

### Villanova: proof gate

Villanova's decision is explicit: no C4 proof exists from the current data layer.

- `model_valid_review.csv` has 32 rows and all 32 have `valid_for_model=0`.
- `REALM_READINESS.md` reports 0 usable crosschecked regulation rows in all four opponent realms.
- Accepted Elo ratings are necessary for filtering comparable opponents, but they do not prove score nodes.
- A C4 theorem requires thread tables, an S10 table, inclusion lemmas, exclusion lemmas, and a theorem that introduces no new judgment.

### Athena: guardrail crosscheck

Athena reviewed whether Aster may advance the semifinal workbench from
pre-lock research to C4 lock, support-market analysis, EV/allocation
discussion, or public ready-to-predict wording.

- C4 prediction lock: **BLOCK**.
- Support-market analysis: **ALLOW ONLY IF** internal, source-labeled, no picks, no allocation, and no action language.
- Market-comparison discussion: **BLOCK** until locked probabilities, a source snapshot, risk review, and correlation review exist.
- Public ready-to-predict wording: **BLOCK**; only pre-lock research wording is allowed.

Athena's reason is mechanical: `model_valid=0` and opponent-realm readiness
is `0/4 usable`, so the current state cannot support market-facing claims.

## Current Hard Counts

- Review rows staged: 32
- Ledger rows with joined opponent ratings: 12/12
- Official crosscheck work-order rows: 12
- Regulation-scope blocked ledger rows: 4/12
- Usable opponent-realm checks: 0/4
- Rows promoted to model-valid: 0
- Locked semifinal C4 cards: 0

## Next Gate

Turtle may advance only after:

1. The 12-row official crosscheck work order is resolved for rows intended for model use.
2. Regulation-only scores are sourced for extra-time or penalty-context rows.
3. Duplicate match rows are reconciled to one model sample.
4. `parse_status=ok` and `official_crosscheck_status=official_or_reconciled` are earned, not assumed.
5. Aster review timestamps are added only after row fields are mechanically verified.
6. Realm readiness updates from `0/4 usable` to a usable or explicitly abstained posture.

Until then the public site must remain in pre-lock workbench mode.

## Sidecar Artifacts

- `agent_outputs/cicero_official_crosscheck_round14.md`
- `agent_outputs/vela_realm_expansion_round14.md`
- `agent_outputs/vela_realm_expansion_round14.csv`
- `agent_outputs/villanova_prelock_proof_gate_round14.md`
- `agent_outputs/athena_round14_guardrail_audit_v01.md`