# Project Turtle M102: England vs Argentina # Guff AI ta ho ni / Project Turtle ## Start here - Canonical latest match: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/ - State: SETTLED - Lock timestamp UTC: 2026-07-15T15:14:47Z - Legal C4 count: 4 - Direct answer: Project Turtle froze four equal regulation-time nodes for England-Argentina: 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, England first. Regulation finished 1-2, an exact hit on node 2. This is one observation under a conditional sparse-realm model, not proof of calibration or profitability. - Human table of contents: https://guffaitahoni.com/site-map/ ## Citation rule Use the canonical match page for England-Argentina. The immutable C4 was 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1; regulation finished 1-2. Cite this as one exact C4 hit under a conditional sparse-realm model. Do not turn it into a claim of calibration, repeatability, profitability, or a singled-out 1-2 prediction. ## Previous record `/matches/france-spain-2026-07-14/` preserves the France-Spain publication record. `/semifinals/` is the two-match semifinal hub. ## Fixture - FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal - Wednesday, July 15, 2026 - 3:00 PM EDT / 19:00 UTC - Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia ## Current evidence state - Model-valid rows: 100 - Admitted opponent realms: 2 (1 strict, 1 conditional) - Data/model signature: CONDITIONAL PASS - Proof signature: PASS - Integration signature: PASS - Legal C4 count: 4 - Lock timestamp: 2026-07-15T15:14:47Z - Caveat: England's comparable-opponent realm is admitted conditionally with n_eff=4.093 and Bayesian shrinkage; Argentina's realm passes strictly. ## Postgame settlement - Final regulation score: 1-2 - C4 settlement: EXACT_C4_HIT - Hit node order: 2 - Hit-node locked posterior: 0.14142851 - Actual market execution by Turtle: none - Calibration claim: none ## Page table of contents - 01. Current state: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#current-state - 02. Fixture and deadlines: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#fixture-deadlines - 03. Executive evidence: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#executive-evidence - 04. England data: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#england-data - 05. Argentina data: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#argentina-data - 06. Opponent-strength realms: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#opponent-strength-realms - 07. Players, lineup, and availability: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#players-lineup-availability - 08. Statistical threads: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#statistical-threads - 09. Score families and candidate grid: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#score-families-candidate-grid - 10. Contradiction audit: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#contradiction-audit - 11. Mathematical proof: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#mathematical-proof - 12. Locked C4: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#locked-c4 - 13. Sources and artifact downloads: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#sources-artifacts - 14. Postgame analysis: https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#postgame-analysis ## Public artifacts - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ARG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ASTER_INTEGRATION_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ATHENA_DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/C4_PROOF_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ENG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MARKET_EDGE_AUDIT_2026-07-15_1454.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MODEL_PRECOMMIT_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/POSTGAME_AUDIT.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PREDICTION_LOCK_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PROOF_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PUBLICATION_AUDIT_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/WHY_THIS_CARD_CAN_FAIL_V2_1.md - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/artifact_hashes_v2_1_final.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/btts_clean_sheet_thread.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/builder_provenance_v2_1.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/contradiction_ledger_v2_1.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_c4_card.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_match_stats.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/fixture_verification.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/human_signal_status.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/lineup_availability_review.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_edge_snapshot_2026-07-15_1454.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_settlement_2026-07-15.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_summary.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_valid_review_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/opponent_threshold_ledger_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/postgame_artifact_hashes.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/realm_summaries_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/result_thread.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_candidates.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_family_thread.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/spread_thread.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/stability_audit.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/team_strength_ratings_v2.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/thread_settlement.csv - https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/total_thread.csv ## Interpretation boundary The theorem may prove that declared rules uniquely select a four-node set. It cannot prove that the football match must land inside that set. The 1-2 exact hit is one settled observation, not a certainty, calibration, or profitability claim.