M101 / status folder
What is the current France-Spain state?
One page for the answer, the timing boundary, and the distinction between a computed hypothesis and a legally proved Turtle card.
Direct answer
Four numerical nodes exist. A legal C4 does not.
- Spain clean-sheet win0-19.20% model mass
- Low draw1-110.14% model mass
- Spain by one, BTTS1-215.63% model mass
- High draw2-28.22% model mass
H4-UNVALIDATED: combined conditional mass 43.2%; all four nodes retained together in 31/32 model-only perturbations. Villanova records PROOF BLOCK, legal C4 count 0, and no lock timestamp.
Computed
What the numerical run established
100 model-labelled rows and 2/2 conditional realms produced a reproducible four-node shortlist.
Not established
What the proof audit refused
Proof-admitted rows remain 0; legal realms remain 0/2. The public H4 label was completed after kickoff and cannot be represented as a pregame lock.