M101 / model folder
How did the model produce four scores?
The frozen numerical output, its component diagnostics, and the precise boundary between reproducibility and proof admission.
Frozen output
The model shortlist, before legal proof admission
| France-Spain | Model mass | Branch | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 9.20% | Spain clean-sheet win | H4-UNVALIDATED |
| 1-1 | 10.14% | Low draw | H4-UNVALIDATED |
| 1-2 | 15.63% | Spain by one, BTTS | H4-UNVALIDATED |
| 2-2 | 8.22% | High draw | H4-UNVALIDATED |
The four cells sum to 43.2%. This percentage is conditional model mass, not a claim that the final score must land in the set.
Comparable opposition
Conditional realm diagnostics
France realm n_eff 6.853; Spain realm n_eff 9.070. Both pass the isolated numerical run after widening, but neither becomes a legal proof realm until its rows are admitted.
Sensitivity
What 31/32 means
All four nodes survived together in 31 of 32 model-only perturbations. It measures internal shortlist retention; it does not test source validity, proof completeness, or post-kickoff calibration.