# Portugal-Spain Postgame Audit

Match: Portugal vs Spain
Date: 2026-07-06
Locked before kickoff: 2026-07-06 2:00 PM ET
Final score: Portugal 0-1 Spain

## Locked C4

The locked four-score card was:

- 1-1
- 1-2 Spain
- 2-1 Portugal
- 2-2

Result: C4 miss.

## Correct Missing Branch

The correct missing branch was:

- 0-1 Spain

This branch was explicitly live before lock because Spain entered with an elite
non-concession streak and Neohm named the Spain clean-sheet score branch before
the card was finalized.

## Likely Corrected C4

Less strict corrected C4:

- 0-1 Spain
- 1-1
- 2-1 Portugal
- 2-2

Stricter corrected C4:

- 0-1 Spain
- 0-2 Spain
- 1-1
- 2-1 Portugal

The stricter card follows if the Spain clean-sheet streak is treated as the
dominant opposing fact against BTTS.

## Failure Class

Protocol failure, not variance.

Specific failure:

- overstacked BTTS;
- ignored elite Spain clean-sheet streak;
- failed to preserve the human signal that 0-1 Spain was live;
- promoted 2-2 over 0-1 without a valid defeat inequality;
- support sizing guidance was overconfident and formally unjustified.

## Method Patch

Turtle now requires three hard gates before lock:

1. Clean-Sheet Override. If a team has an extreme verified non-concession
   streak, C4 must include at least one clean-sheet score for that team unless
   the proof defeats the streak numerically.
2. Human Signal Preservation. If Neohm names a score branch before lock, the
   proof must include it or reject it with a numeric rule-based argument.
3. Recursive Attack. Every candidate score must be attacked by the strongest
   opposing fact before it enters C4.

Until Turtle has a formal EV table, bankroll cap, risk table, and correlation
table, public Turtle pages are analysis-only and must not publish allocation-size
guidance.