# Turtle Data Audit: Paraguay vs France

Fetch timestamp UTC: `2026-07-05T04:27:43+00:00`
Prediction lock local: `2026-07-04 06:00 PM EDT`
Kickoff ET: `2026-07-04 5:00 PM ET`
No-leak cutoff date: `2026-07-04`

Scope: pregame score-orbital analysis. Market prices are not prediction inputs.
Lock scope: Late analysis lock: generated after scheduled kickoff from pre-cutoff ledgers only; do not grade as a clean pregame lock.

## Source Notes

- France pressure is active, but Paraguay's low-block/draw evidence cannot be deleted by favorite strength alone. The proof must compare France cushion against low-event containment.
- Lineup conflict unresolved in public scout sources: Mbappe status, Diego Gomez return and Paraguay defensive availability are treated as bounded modifiers rather than hard score facts.
- Scout memo: France hold the strength edge through ranking, squad quality and tournament scoring; Paraguay carry low-block evidence.
- Opponent-threshold model active: last-50 rows are joined to a bounded 0-10 strength proxy, filtered to the opponent's rating realm, and shrunk when sparse.
- Raw scoring rates are not allowed to delete clean-sheet spread branches before the spread thread is tested.

## Row Counts

- Paraguay: 50 selected rows from 50 mined rows.
- France: 50 selected rows from 50 mined rows.

## Opponent-Threshold Readiness

- Paraguay vs France-realm: raw rows=6, effective rows=4.875, readiness=usable, epsilon=0.75.
- France vs Paraguay-realm: raw rows=22, effective rows=15.226, readiness=strong, epsilon=0.75.

## Sources

- Paraguay results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguay_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- France results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- FIFA Paraguay-France match centre: https://www.fifa.com/en/match-centre/match/17/285023/289288/400021533
- Guardian July 4 World Cup live desk: https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2026/jul/04/world-cup-2026-cape-verde-give-argentina-mighty-scare-last-16-mexico-v-england-fixture-chaos-morocco-canada-france-paraguay-live