# Turtle Data Audit: Mexico vs England

Fetch timestamp UTC: `2026-07-05T14:02:25+00:00`
Prediction lock local: `2026-07-05 10:02 AM EDT`
Kickoff ET: `2026-07-05 8:00 PM ET`
No-leak cutoff date: `2026-07-05`

Scope: pregame score-orbital analysis. Market prices are not prediction inputs.
Lock scope: Pregame lock: generated before scheduled kickoff from pre-cutoff ledgers.

## Source Notes

- England have the higher squad-strength seed, but Mexico's venue, altitude, crowd, and current clean-sheet run must enter as control modifiers. This file must not flatten Mexico into an ordinary 7.4 opponent.
- Public pre-match context reports Mexico as home side at Azteca and England managing fitness questions. Those facts are bounded modifiers; exact score selection still comes from the thread model.
- Manual 0-10 strength seeds: England 8.9, Mexico 7.4. Venue and tournament form narrow the effective match gap.
- Opponent-threshold model active: last-50 rows are joined to a bounded 0-10 strength proxy, filtered to the opponent's rating realm, and shrunk when sparse.
- Raw scoring rates are not allowed to delete clean-sheet spread branches before the spread thread is tested.

## Row Counts

- Mexico: 50 selected rows from 114 mined rows.
- England: 50 selected rows from 92 mined rows.

## Opponent-Threshold Readiness

- Mexico vs England-realm: raw rows=8, effective rows=2.924, readiness=usable, epsilon=1.25.
- England vs Mexico-realm: raw rows=14, effective rows=9.228, readiness=strong, epsilon=0.75.

## Sources

- Mexico results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- England results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Round-of-16 fixture cross-check: https://www.sbnation.com/soccer/1121525/2026-world-cup-round-of-16-scores-schedule
- Public preview: Mexico vs England: https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/chelsea-fc-international-duty/169959/2026-world-cup-round-of-16-brazil-vs-norway-mexico-vs-england
- Public context: England kit/injury/venue note: https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/39652321/england-kit-mexico-world-cup-2026/