# Why This Card Can Fail V2.1

1. England's Argentina-strength realm is conditionally admitted, not a strict
   realm pass: five rows yield `n_eff=4.09341334`, so shrinkage materially
   affects the result.
2. The strength table uses a current Elo snapshot as a retrospective proxy,
   not a match-date rating history.
3. Probable lineups are not promoted into score-selecting multipliers; lineup
   sensitivity remains a fork rather than a certainty claim.
4. Exact-score probability is diffuse. C4 is a constrained four-node
   experiment, not a claim that the match must land in the set.
5. The 2-1 node is fragile: it survives 6 of 8 declared forks and loses to
   0-0 in two alternatives.
6. Red cards, penalties, early injuries, or tactical changes can move the
   match outside every pregame cell.