# Turtle Data Audit: Colombia vs Ghana

Fetch timestamp UTC: `2026-07-04T11:26:03+00:00`
Prediction lock ET: `2026-07-03 9:12 PM ET`
Scheduled kickoff ET: `2026-07-03 9:30 PM ET`
No-leak cutoff date: `2026-07-03`

Scope: public pregame score-orbital analysis only. No auto-betting and no market price is used as a prediction input.

## Sources

- Colombia results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombia_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Ghana results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghana_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Guardian final-score audit: Colombia 1-0 Ghana: https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2026/jul/04/colombia-v-ghana-world-cup-2026-last-32-live
- Round of 32 fixture slate cross-check: https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/chelsea-fc-international-duty/169925/2026-world-cup-round-of-32-australia-vs-egypt-argentina-vs-cape-verde-colombia-vs-ghana

## Last-50 Summary

| Team | W-D-L | GF/M | GA/M | Scored | Conceded | Clean sheets | BTTS | O2.5 | O3.5 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Colombia | 31-12-7 | 1.860 | 0.800 | 41/50 | 26/50 | 24/50 | 23/50 | 27/50 | 16/50 |
| Ghana | 16-14-20 | 1.220 | 1.320 | 34/50 | 33/50 | 17/50 | 23/50 | 24/50 | 14/50 |

## Model

- `lambda_colombia` = `1.3838` (final expected Colombia goals)
- `lambda_ghana` = `0.6833` (final expected Ghana goals)
- `raw_lambda_colombia` = `1.5058` (before pace/control)
- `raw_lambda_ghana` = `0.7888` (before pace/control)
- `knockout_pace` = `0.9200` (shared caution multiplier)
- `colombia_pressure` = `1.0333` (favorite pressure gate)
- `ghana_transition` = `0.9740` (underdog scoring/emotional gate)
- `block_drag` = `0.9667` (low-event tournament drag)
- `colombia_win_regulation` = `0.537828` (score-grid probability)
- `draw_regulation` = `0.277651` (score-grid probability)
- `ghana_win_regulation` = `0.184422` (score-grid probability)
- `btts_yes` = `0.370933` (score-grid probability)
- `over_1_5` = `0.611759` (score-grid probability)
- `over_2_5` = `0.341386` (score-grid probability)
- `over_3_5` = `0.155088` (score-grid probability)
- `containment_80_count` = `8` (score cells needed for 80 percent mass)
- `containment_90_count` = `11` (score cells needed for 90 percent mass)

## Final four-score Card

- #1 `1-0` `MAIN` stake $10.00: Low-event Colombia branch: a single Colombia goal plus match control beats the draw/transition alternatives.
- #2 `2-0` `MAIN` stake $10.00: Colombia control branch: the model asks for a cushion when Colombia attack meets Ghana concession risk.
- #3 `2-1` `MAIN` stake $10.00: 2-1 is selected mechanically by branch mass, exact-cell probability, and historical bucket support.
- #4 `1-1` `SCORE_4` stake $10.00 protocol standard; historical execution may differ: Score 4 inside the four-score card under the July 6 protocol.

## Theorem

- C4 = {1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 1-1}
- Score 4 is part of C4: {1-1}

## Settlement Audit

- Final score: `1-0`
- Four-score card settlement: `HIT`
- Containment settlement: `HIT`
- Support call settlement: `Under 3.5 / Over 3.5 NO hit`
- Postgame source: https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2026/jul/04/colombia-v-ghana-world-cup-2026-last-32-live

Colombia 1-0 Ghana after regulation. Jhon Arias scored the only goal in the 14th minute.
Live support call favored Over 3.5 NO / Under 3.5 at 0.67; it settled correct because the final had one total goal.
Public ledger after settlement uses C4 as the normal card. Small sample; not proof of edge.