# Canada vs Morocco postgame audit

Match: Canada vs Morocco
Date: 2026-07-04
Final: Canada 0-3 Morocco
Settlement: four-score card miss, miss; Under 3.5 support hit

Locked card:
- C4: 1-1, 1-2, 2-1
- score 4: 2-2
- Support: Under 3.5

What went right:
- Morocco was the strongest regulation-result bucket in the locked model.
- The score remained below four total goals, so the Under 3.5 support thesis was coherent and landed.

What failed:
- The actual score 0-3 was outside S10 at rank 11 with P=0.037367.
- The score 0-2 was already in S10 at rank 6 with P=0.081035, but Rule R1 excluded it as `EXCLUDED_BY_R1_HOME_NO_SCORE_GATE`.
- Turtle failed to build the Morocco clean-sheet spread thread: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3.
- The Canada scoring gate was too strong against Morocco's control, transition, and clean-sheet profile.

Carry-forward correction:
- The next model must form result thread -> spread thread -> total thread -> BTTS/clean-sheet thread -> exact scores.
- If the strongest result bucket is Morocco win and low-total support is live, the clean-sheet spread family must be tested before forcing Canada to score.
- A clean-sheet score inside the top six S10 cells and belonging to the strongest result bucket cannot be removed by one scoring-rate gate alone. It requires a second independent veto.
- A rank-11 extension such as 0-3 can enter the score-four review when it belongs to a preserved spread family and the game state plausibly creates late transition risk.

Postgame facts used only for audit:
- User-supplied FOX screenshot at 90+5 showed Canada 0-2 Morocco; that was a provisional live-state artifact, not final settlement.
- Guardian match report and live reaction settled the result as Canada 0-3 Morocco.
- Ounahi scored at 50' and 82'; Rahimi scored in injury time.
- Screenshot stats at 90+5: possession 43%-57%, shots 8-4, shots on target 3-3, corners 10-1.