# Turtle Data Audit: Canada vs Morocco

Fetch timestamp UTC: `2026-07-04T21:15:06+00:00`
Prediction lock local: `2026-07-04 05:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time`
Kickoff ET: `2026-07-04 1:00 PM ET`
No-leak cutoff date: `2026-07-04`

Scope: pregame score-orbital analysis. Market prices are not prediction inputs.
Lock scope: Late lock: generated after scheduled kickoff from pre-cutoff ledgers only; do not grade as clean pregame.

## Source Notes

- Both teams have current-tournament scoring evidence. Morocco carry the stronger ranking/control profile, but Canada have a home-continent free-hit profile and enough one-goal evidence to keep draw/transition branches alive.
- Guardian teams note: Alphonso Davies begins on Canada's bench; Canada make three changes. Morocco replace injured Chadi Riad with Redouane Halhal, while Hakimi, Brahim Diaz, Ounahi and Saibari start.
- Guardian live context described Morocco as ranked sixth in the world and carrying deeper-tournament ambitions.
- Opponent-threshold model active: last-50 rows are joined to a bounded 0-10 strength proxy, filtered to the opponent's rating realm, and shrunk when sparse.
- Raw scoring rates are not allowed to delete clean-sheet spread branches before the spread thread is tested.

## Row Counts

- Canada: 50 selected rows from 50 mined rows.
- Morocco: 50 selected rows from 50 mined rows.

## Opponent-Threshold Readiness

- Canada vs Morocco-realm: raw rows=9, effective rows=5.397, readiness=usable, epsilon=0.75.
- Morocco vs Canada-realm: raw rows=7, effective rows=4.715, readiness=usable, epsilon=0.75.

## Sources

- Canada results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_men%27s_national_soccer_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Morocco results 2020-present: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco_national_football_team_results_(2020%E2%80%93present)
- Guardian Canada-Morocco live teams and context: https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2026/jul/04/canada-v-morocco-world-cup-2026-last-16-live