# Postgame Audit: Belgium vs USA

Status: settled.

Final score: United States 1-4 Belgium.

Locked C4: 2-1 Belgium, 1-2 USA, 3-1 Belgium, 1-1.

C4 settlement: MISS. The final score 4-1 Belgium is outside the locked four-score set.

This is a protocol failure, not variance. The model correctly identified a live Belgium win, BTTS, and a high-total game, but it capped the Belgium cushion at 3-1 and did not preserve the next Belgium-cushion ladder score. A stoppage-time or error-assisted fourth goal does not change the grading. Turtle has no gift exception.

## What held

- Belgium direction was live: the final score was a Belgium win.
- BTTS was live: both teams scored.
- Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 were live by the score state.
- The inclusion of 3-1 was directionally right because Belgium cushion plus BTTS was the branch that carried the match.

## What failed

- The C4 missed because 4-1 was not included.
- The over-3.5 tail was treated as a single exact-score slot instead of a ladder.
- The candidate universe was too dependent on the top count cells. It did not ask whether a selected 3-1 branch logically implies that 4-1 must be evaluated before lock.
- Support-market language was not enough. Support markets can be correct while the exact-score card fails.

## Failure class

Favorite-cushion ladder failure.

The branch was not wrong; the branch was truncated. Once Belgium by 2+ and BTTS survived recursive attack, Turtle needed an explicit ladder audit:

- 3-1 Belgium
- 4-1 Belgium
- 3-2 Belgium
- 4-2 Belgium

The pregame card selected 3-1 but gave no formal rule proving that 4-1 should remain outside C4. That is the missing proof.

## Rule repair

Add `R-ladder`.

If a favorite-cushion BTTS score is selected and the total thread gives `P(over_3_5) >= 0.40`, Turtle must evaluate the adjacent cushion ladder before lock:

`(fav_goals+1, dog_goals)`, `(fav_goals, dog_goals+1)`, and `(fav_goals+1, dog_goals+1)`.

One of those adjacent ladder scores must either enter C4 or be rejected by a numeric inequality stronger than the selected score's branch evidence.

## Protocol verdict

The Belgium-USA test fails the practical standard. The locked score cloud did not contain the regulation result. Turtle should pause exact-score locks until the ladder rule is implemented and tested against prior settled files.

Do not rewrite `PREDICTION_LOCK.md`. The locked pregame card remains the locked pregame card.