{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-16T02:28:33+00:00",
  "canonical_url": "https://guffaitahoni.com/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/",
  "status": "settled",
  "c4_lock_timestamp_utc": "2026-07-15T15:14:47Z",
  "legal_c4_count": 4,
  "locked_scores": [
    "1-1",
    "1-2",
    "0-1",
    "2-1"
  ],
  "settlement": {
    "status": "EXACT_C4_HIT",
    "final_score": "1-2",
    "hit_node_order": 2,
    "hit_node_probability": 0.14142851,
    "actual_execution": "none",
    "calibration_claim": false
  },
  "direct_answer": "Project Turtle froze four equal regulation-time nodes for England-Argentina: 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, England first. Regulation finished 1-2, an exact hit on node 2. This is one observation under a conditional sparse-realm model, not proof of calibration or profitability.",
  "routes": [
    {
      "number": 1,
      "label": "Current state",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#current-state"
    },
    {
      "number": 2,
      "label": "Fixture and deadlines",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#fixture-deadlines"
    },
    {
      "number": 3,
      "label": "Executive evidence",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#executive-evidence"
    },
    {
      "number": 4,
      "label": "England data",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#england-data"
    },
    {
      "number": 5,
      "label": "Argentina data",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#argentina-data"
    },
    {
      "number": 6,
      "label": "Opponent-strength realms",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#opponent-strength-realms"
    },
    {
      "number": 7,
      "label": "Players, lineup, and availability",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#players-lineup-availability"
    },
    {
      "number": 8,
      "label": "Statistical threads",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#statistical-threads"
    },
    {
      "number": 9,
      "label": "Score families and candidate grid",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#score-families-candidate-grid"
    },
    {
      "number": 10,
      "label": "Contradiction audit",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#contradiction-audit"
    },
    {
      "number": 11,
      "label": "Mathematical proof",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#mathematical-proof"
    },
    {
      "number": 12,
      "label": "Locked C4",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#locked-c4"
    },
    {
      "number": 13,
      "label": "Sources and artifact downloads",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#sources-artifacts"
    },
    {
      "number": 14,
      "label": "Postgame analysis",
      "url": "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/#postgame-analysis"
    }
  ],
  "artifacts": [
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ARG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ASTER_INTEGRATION_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ATHENA_DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/C4_PROOF_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/DATA_MODEL_SIGNATURE_V2.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/ENG_admitted_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MARKET_EDGE_AUDIT_2026-07-15_1454.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/MODEL_PRECOMMIT_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/POSTGAME_AUDIT.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PREDICTION_LOCK_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PROOF_SIGNATURE_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/PUBLICATION_AUDIT_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/WHY_THIS_CARD_CAN_FAIL_V2_1.md",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/artifact_hashes_v2_1_final.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/btts_clean_sheet_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/builder_provenance_v2_1.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/contradiction_ledger_v2_1.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_c4_card.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/final_match_stats.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/fixture_verification.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/human_signal_status.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/lineup_availability_review.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_edge_snapshot_2026-07-15_1454.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/market_settlement_2026-07-15.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_summary.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/model_valid_review_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/opponent_threshold_ledger_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/postgame_artifact_hashes.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/realm_summaries_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/result_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_candidates.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/score_family_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/spread_thread.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/stability_audit.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/team_strength_ratings_v2.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/thread_settlement.csv",
    "/matches/england-argentina-2026-07-15/data/total_thread.csv"
  ]
}